期待蔡英文勇行戰略突圍

<轉載自2016年9月19日 明報 社評>

台灣一個特殊政治現象，是蔡英文就任總統以來，一直在被「政績計時」，先有「五二○滿月」，後是「執政百日」，明天是她執政滿4月，又會被埋單計數。蔡英文之被「政績計時」，來自面臨的政治困頓，她雖四出突圍，但效果不彰。不過機會將至，21天後她將作首個「雙十講話」，是在台灣大困局、兩岸大迷局下其戰略突圍的良機。

蔡英文之被「政績計時」怨不得別人。本來國民黨內鬥不休、政治乏力下，蔡文挾較高民意當選，又得民進黨全面執政，為其實現諸多改革大計、長期執政打下基礎。但蔡英文及其團隊，上台就逢多事之秋，「華航罷工」、「雄三誤射」、「水淹桃機」等，件件令蔡英文頭痕不已，其表現不僅未如人意，還令民心怨懟。蔡英文想以推改革作戰術突圍，所以「一例一休」、「年金改革」、「司法改革」等輪番推出，夾雜「黨產追討」、「課綱改革」、「轉型正義」等，民間爭議不休，政治惡鬥不止。

施政表現民心怨懟 綠營不滿兩面受敵

如此一來，蔡英文與台灣民眾的蜜月期提早結束，其民望跌至新低，而蔡政府亦兩面受敵。最新民調顯示，行政院長林全支持度再下探至31%，不滿意度則躍升到47%。民間滿意度與不滿意度差距擴大，台獨大佬們還後台施壓，不滿林全的無黨籍背景，壓蔡換人綠化行政院。

除民生問題加重、社會焦慮情緒瀰漫外，因蔡英文迴避承認「九二共識」，更令兩岸關係跌入冰河，涉及台灣人感觸最深的經濟前景和最敏感的國際空間兩大層面。

最近台灣旅遊業人士走上街頭，抗議蔡政府上台後政治波及經濟，令陸客大量減少。陸客赴台年逾400萬人次，預計今年將減少65萬人次，至少令台灣減少360億新台幣（約88億港元）外匯收入。台灣觀光業從交通到酒店餐飲，各業叫苦。其實，大陸只是「減少」未行「封殺」，已直接撼動蔡英文執政。

之前的世衛大會（WHA），在北京克制下台灣繼續參與，至於本月底的國際民航組織（ICAO）會議，台灣邀請函杳無音信，而亞太經濟合作會議（APEC）台灣誰任特使也望天打卦。基於歷史原因，台灣民眾對國際空間相當敏感，馬英九執政時，兩岸和平、外交休兵，大陸開放台灣參加部分國際組織活動，現時空間收縮，蔡還要推動加入聯合國，兩岸勢必外交烽火再燃。

兩岸關係由熱轉凍，殺傷力還沒全面顯現，目前蔡英文被認為還有兩張牌可打，一張是外交美日牌，一張是南向經貿牌。

美日南向難救近火 完成答卷一石三鳥

美日牌先看日本。日中關係未得改善，日本最大反對黨民進黨改選，由被稱作「台灣女兒」的蓮舫出任黨魁，台灣綠營為之鼓舞。但日本民進黨作為反對黨，作用有限；日本外交一直唯美國馬首是瞻，對中國又從來先硬後軟，日台關係難有大變。

至於美國方面，最近以強化美台關係為主旨的智庫「全球台灣研究中心（GTI）」在華府開幕，美國眾議員夏波（Steve Chabot）等人又提出「台灣旅行法」法案，要允許「所有」台灣高官入境美國及會見華府高層。但台美關係推動，仍停留在議會和民間層面。美國政府更重戰略利益，處理中美、台美關係仍相當謹慎。

台灣立法院上周重開，傳出蔡英文有意推動被擱置已久的兩岸貿易協議，以向大陸釋出善意。但國台辦主任張志軍已間接回絕，說兩岸過去已經簽署的23項協議不會改變，但因目前兩岸「沒有共同政治基礎」，溝通與協商機制處於停擺狀態，「不可能再談新協議」，貨貿協議也不可能再談了。

台灣民怨愈積愈深，經濟仍在史上最長衰退期中，「新南向政策」就算有望也非一日之功，對台灣經濟、民生、國際空間影響最大的兩岸關係，繼續冰凍，且有愈來愈冷之勢。於此大環境下，蔡英文要走出困境，須有戰略性突破，而突破機會在21天後的「雙十」。

依慣例台灣總統要做「雙十講話」，經常成為「重要宣示」。歷史上，1999年李登輝在「雙十講話」中宣示「兩岸關係是特殊的國與國關係」的「兩國論」主張，引發兩岸危機；2004年，陳水扁在「雙十講話」提出「兩岸以1992香港會談為基礎，推動協商談判」，緩和了緊張局勢；2012年，馬英九在「雙十講話」中明確「以九二共識、一中各表為基礎，擴大兩岸交流」，兩岸交流深化，最終實現「習馬會」。

如果蔡英文能利用今年的「雙十講話」，不迴避避無可避的「九二共識」，完成兩岸關係「答卷」，就能一石三鳥，既牽動兩岸關係走出僵局，又推動台灣經濟走出困局，更可率「英派」執政團隊走出迷局，那就是蔡英文最大的「戰略突圍」。

Tsai should take the bull by the horns

A PECULIAR PHENOMENON in Taiwanese politics to reflect on is that ever since Tsai Ing-wen was sworn in as president she has been subjected to periodic evaluations of her achievements. The first was on May 20, when one month had passed since she took office. Then it was the 100-day mark of her presidency. And, as Tsai's presidency enters its fourth month tomorrow (September 20), she is due for another performance appraisal. This has been so because she has been encountering political difficulties. She has been trying to make breakthroughs on all fronts, but little success has been achieved. But there will be an opportunity for her to do so. In 21 days she will be making her first speech on the "Double Ten Day", which is the tenth of October. That will be an opportunity for her to make a strategic breakthrough amid Taiwan's great difficulty and difficult dilemma across the Taiwan Strait.

Tsai has only herself to blame for the endless string of appraisals. At a time when the Chinese Nationalist Party was mired in internal strife and was politically powerless, Tsai, who swept into office and whose party (the Democratic Progressive Party) seized control of the legislative chamber, started her presidency when the foundations had already been laid for a long list of reforms and a long period of rule. But Tsai and her team got off to a bumpy start. All the problems she is faced with are vexing, and her performance has not lived up to people's expectations. The public is disgruntled. To make a strategic breakthrough, Tsai has tried to push through reforms, only to lead to ongoing controversies in society and endless political struggles.

As a result, Tsai's honeymoon period with Taiwanese people has ended prematurely, and her approval ratings have plummeted to a new low. Her administration is sandwiched between different sides. According to the latest survey, only 31 per cent of respondents approve of the performance of Lin Chuan, the Premier of the Republic of China, while his disapproval rating has jumped to 47 per cent. At a time of widening gap between the government's approval and disapproval ratings, the big guns from the Taiwan independence camp are exerting pressure behind the scenes. Unhappy with the Premier's absence of a political allegiance, they are pressuring Tsai to appoint a new Premier from the green camp.

Apart from the aggravating problem concerning people's livelihood and a spirit of anxiety pervading society, Tsai's avoidance of the 1992 consensus has brought relations between Beijing and Taiwan to "freezing point". What concerns Taiwanese people most is the economic prospects and the sensitive issue of the room for Taiwan's diplomacy.

Unhappy that Taiwan's economy has fallen victim to political arguments since Tsai took office, which has led to a sharp decline in the number of mainland visitors, people in Taiwan's tourist industry have recently taken to the streets. Four million mainlanders visit Taiwan every year. But it is now estimated that the number will fall by 650,000 this year, which will reduce Taiwan's foreign exchange income by 36 billion New Taiwan Dollars (around 8.8 billion Hong Kong dollars). From transportation to hotel and catering, every sector in Taiwan's tourist industry is crying out for help. In fact, the mainland authorities have not so much shut out Taiwan's tourist industry as reducing the number of mainland visitors. This, however, is enough to shake Tsai's presidency.

Public discontent in Taiwan continues to grow. Its economy is still in the midst of the longest recession. The "New Southward Policy" will not be so promising as to achieve success overnight. Furthermore, relations across the Taiwan Strait, which are of crucial importance to Taiwan's economy, its people's livelihood and Taiwan's room for diplomacy, continue to be at "freezing point" and are likely to get even colder. Against such a big picture, Tsai has to make a strategic breakthrough if she is to find a way out of the dilemma. The "Double Ten Day", which is 21 days away, will present this opportunity. If Tsai is able to make use of this year's "Double Ten Day" speech and "complete the question paper on cross-strait relations" by tackling the unavoidable issue of the 1992 consensus, she will "kill three birds with one stone": break the deadlock in cross-strait relations, bring the Taiwanese economy out of its current predicament, and free her administration from the dilemma. That will be Tsai's greatest "strategic breakthrough".

期待蔡英文勇行戰略突圍

台灣一個特殊政治現象，是蔡英文就任總統以來，一直在被「政績計時」，先有「五二○滿月」，後是「執政百日」，明天（9月20日）是她執政滿4月，又會被埋單計數。蔡英文之被「政績計時」，來自面臨的政治困頓，她雖四出突圍，但效果不彰。不過機會將至，21天後她將作首個「雙十講話」，是在台灣大困局、兩岸大迷局下其戰略突圍的良機。

蔡英文之被「政績計時」怨不得別人。本來國民黨內鬥不休、政治乏力下，蔡文挾較高民意當選，又得民進黨全面執政，為其實現諸多改革大計、長期執政打下基礎。但蔡英文及其團隊，上台就逢多事之秋，件件令蔡英文頭痕不已，其表現不僅未如人意，還令民心怨懟。蔡英文想以推改革作戰術突圍，民間爭議不休，政治惡鬥不止。

如此一來，蔡英文與台灣民眾的蜜月期提早結束，其民望跌至新低，而蔡政府亦兩面受敵。最新民調顯示，行政院長林全支持度再下探至31%，不滿意度則躍升到47%。民間滿意度與不滿意度差距擴大，台獨大佬們還後台施壓，不滿林全的無黨籍背景，壓蔡換人綠化行政院。

除民生問題加重、社會焦慮情緒瀰漫外，因蔡英文迴避承認「九二共識」，更令兩岸關係跌入冰河，涉及台灣人感觸最深的經濟前景和最敏感的國際空間兩大層面。

最近台灣旅遊業人士走上街頭，抗議蔡政府上台後政治波及經濟，令陸客大量減少。陸客赴台年逾400萬人次，預計今年將減少65萬人次，至少令台灣減少360億新台幣（約88億港元）外匯收入。台灣觀光業從交通到酒店餐飲，各業叫苦。其實，大陸只是「減少」未行「封殺」，已直接撼動蔡英文執政。

台灣民怨愈積愈深，經濟仍在史上最長衰退期中，「新南向政策」就算有望也非一日之功，對台灣經濟、民生、國際空間影響最大的兩岸關係，繼續冰凍，且有愈來愈冷之勢。於此大環境下，蔡英文要走出困境，須有戰略性突破，而突破機會在21天後的「雙十」。如果蔡英文能利用今年的「雙十講話」，不迴避避無可避的「九二共識」，完成兩岸關係「答卷」，就能一石三鳥，既牽動兩岸關係走出僵局，又推動台灣經濟走出困局，更可率「英派」執政團隊走出迷局，那就是蔡英文最大的「戰略突圍」。