中越關係重回正軌 美國挑撥矛盾徒勞

<轉載自2015年4月13日 明報 社評>

過去一周，中美在亞太區的外交博弈成為國際焦點。這邊廂，美國國防部長卡特首次訪問東亞，抨擊中國在南海填海造地；另一邊廂，中國國家主席習近平與越共總書記阮富仲會晤，強調共同管控好海上分歧，加強兩國經濟合作。為了推動「亞洲再平衡」策略，美國在區內大搞分化離間，中越關係一度緊張，然而過去一年中國政府大力推動「一帶一路」等共榮合作懷柔策略，漸見成效。即使當前中越關係只屬政冷經熱，但美國若想單靠渲染「中國威脅論」挑撥中越對抗也非易事。

美防長訪問東亞 渲染中國威脅論

越南共產黨總書記阮富仲上周應邀訪華，與習近平的會談，標誌兩國關係重回正軌。去年5月，中國於南海西沙群島海域部署鑽油台，引起越南抗議，部分越南民眾攻擊華資企業，中越關係一度劍拔弩張，陷入1979年中越邊境戰爭以來最嚴峻危機。經過雙方努力，中越關係終趨緩和，全國政協主席俞正聲今年初訪問河內，為阮富仲訪華鋪平道路。

根據中越發表的聯合公報，加強雙方互信，避免主權爭端擴大，明顯是阮富仲訪華的最重要共識。公報稱，兩國領導人就海上問題「坦誠交換意見」，強調「用好中越政府邊界談判機制」，「積極探討不影響各自立場主張的過渡性解決辦法，包括積極研究和商談共同開發」，又表示將「共同管控好海上分歧」，「不採取使爭議複雜化、擴大化的行動」，「維護中越關係大局以及南海和平穩定」。此外，兩國重點提到經濟合作，除了協商跨境經濟合作區建設共同方案，還談到21世紀海上絲綢之路建設。

緩和中越關係，對於北京抗衡美國的「重返亞洲」戰略是非常關鍵的一着。美國近年一邊大力支持日本擴大在區內的軍事角色，一邊在南海主權爭議上煽風點火，利用越南、菲律賓等國與北京的矛盾牽制中國。過去一周，美國防長卡特的連番言論，充分突顯美方的挑撥離間策略。卡特訪日期間，強烈反對「任何透過武力改變亞太地區現狀的行動」，指控「中國單方面在尖閣諸島（釣魚島）採取威懾行動」，又表示非常關注中國在南海爭議海域「填海造地」，敦促中方停止相關活動「重新贏取地區信任」。

美國總統奧巴馬上周四更公開挑撥菲、越與中國關係，聲言擔心中國利用「大國地位和力量」欺侮南海鄰國，「菲律賓和越南雖然沒有中國強大，但不表示因此（中國）就可以將它們硬擠到一邊」。目前美、日正洽商修訂《日美防衛合作指針》，據報新指針將訂明，即使日本未直接受到武力攻擊，只要出現「嚴重影響日本和平安全」的「重要影響事態」，日本依然可行使集體自衛權，為美軍提供軍備等支援，日本防相中谷元甚至表示，新指針「還包含南海，並不僅僅限於特定地域」。

海上絲路利益巨大 越盼平衡中美關係

美日企圖拉攏越菲，插足南海牽制中國的盤算呼之欲出。面對美國大力渲染中國威脅論，中國外交部嚴辭反駁，批評有些國家雙重標準，長期對區內其他國家在南海爭議島礁大興土木不聞不問，卻「對中方在自己領土上的正常活動說三道四」，敦促美方尊重中國與區內相關國家通過對話解決問題的努力，「多說負責任的話，多做負責任的事」。中國社科院海疆問題專家王曉鵬指出，美國企圖在西太平洋打造一條「東海——南海爭端鏈」遏制中國，將越南看成爭端鏈上的重點，希望越南能成為重要軍事伙伴。事實上，就在阮富仲訪華之際，美越海軍也在越南峴港海域聯合演習。

今年是美越關係正常化20周年，繼越南副防長阮志永上月訪美，阮富仲今年稍後出訪美國，加強兩國關係，促請美國解除對越南的武器禁售。不過，越南對華存有戒心之餘，也不會忘記兩大事實，一是中國「一帶一路」倡議可為越南經濟帶來巨大發展空間，這是美國不能提供的；二是越共也得提防美國推動越南政治體制改變的可能。當前中越關係可說是政冷經熱，雖然去年越南爆發反華潮，但兩國貿易反而擴大。去年越南對華出口和進口分別增長13％和19％。來自中國的進口，佔越南整體進口比重，由2000年僅為10％，增至去年的30％。

無論是越南決定加入由中國牽頭的亞投行，還是習近平向阮富仲表示歡迎越南參加創設「海上絲綢之路」，都反映中越兩國深明經濟合作能互惠共贏。越南政府當然希望美國提供安全保障，但也需要來自中國方面的經濟好處。在防止越南靠攏美日，北京算是暫時取得優勢，只要能審慎務實處理南海爭端，避免與越南反目，河內相信也不得不全力平衡與中美兩國的關係。

Sino-Vietnamese relations have returned to right track

LAST WEEK world attention was focused on diplomatic games between China and the US in Asia-Pacific. While, during his first visit to East Asia, US defence secretary Ashton Carter bashed China for reclaiming land in the South China Sea, Chinese president Xi Jinping and general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong had a meeting and stressed that the two countries should work together to keep their maritime disputes under control and step up their cooperation.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Nguyen Phu Trong (who visited China last week on invitation) marked the return of Sino-Vietnamese relations to the right track.

It is quite clear from a joint communiqué the two countries have issued that the most important consensus arrived at during Nguyen Phu Trong's China visit is that the two countries should increase their mutual trust and prevent their sovereignty disputes from escalating. The communiqué says the leaders have "frankly compared notes" with each other about maritime issues and stressed that the two countries should "make good use of the mechanism by which their governments have border talks", "positively look at transitional solutions that will not affect their respective positions and contentions" and "positively look at and discuss, inter alia, joint development". The communiqué also says the two countries will work together to keep their maritime differences under control and avoid doing what may worsen or complicate their disputes with a view to preserving good relations between them and maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea". Furthermore, the two countries have focused on economic cooperation. They have discussed not only a joint plan for setting up a cross-border economic cooperation zone but also the 21st Century Maritime Silk Route programme.

The easing of Sino-Vietnamese relations is a step of crucial importance in countering America's strategy of "returning to Asia".

It is quite obvious that the US and Japan intend to draw to their side Vietnam and the Philippines and set foot in the South China Sea in the hope of containing China. China's foreign ministry has refuted in strong terms the "China threat" theory the US has tried hard to give colour to, criticising some countries for applying double standards and saying they have "made irresponsible comments on China's normal activities in its own territory" though they have long turned a blind eye to other countries' constructions on South China Sea islets about which there are disputes. It has urged the US to respect China's efforts to settle its disputes with other countries in the region through dialogue and "try harder to make responsible remarks and do responsible things".

This year is to see the 20th anniversary of the normalisation of US-Vietnamese relations. Last month Vietnamese deputy defence minister Nguyen Chi Vinh visited the US, and Nguyen Phu Trong will go there later this year to urge the Americans to lift their ban on arms sales to Vietnam. However wary of China it may be, Vietnam will not forget (a) China's "One Belt, One Road" plan may bring it great development opportunities the US cannot provide it with and (b) the Communist Party of Vietnam must be on its guard against the possibility of the US trying to bring about changes in Vietnam's political structure.

Vietnam has decided to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and Xi Jinping has told Nguyen Phu Trong Vietnam is welcome to play a part in the "Maritime Silk Route" plan. It is thus clear that both China and Vietnam know very well economic cooperation is mutually beneficial and win-win. The Vietnamese government of course hopes the US will safeguard the country's security, but it also needs economic benefits from China. In preventing Vietnam from siding with the US and Japan, China has for the time being gained the upper hand. Conceivably, as long as it cautiously and pragmatically deals with South China Sea disputes and avoids falling out with Vietnam, Hanoi cannot but do its best to strike a balance between Vietnamese-Sino relations and Vietnamese-US relations.

中越關係重回正軌 美國挑撥矛盾徒勞

過去一周，中美在亞太區的外交博弈成為國際焦點。這邊廂，美國國防部長卡特首次訪問東亞，抨擊中國在南海填海造地；另一邊廂，中國國家主席習近平與越共總書記阮富仲會晤，強調共同管控好海上分歧，加強兩國經濟合作。

阮富仲上周應邀訪華，與習近平的會談，標誌兩國關係重回正軌。

根據中越發表的聯合公報，加強雙方互信，避免主權爭端擴大，明顯是阮富仲訪華的最重要共識。公報稱，兩國領導人就海上問題「坦誠交換意見」，強調「用好中越政府邊界談判機制」，「積極探討不影響各自立場主張的過渡性解決辦法，包括積極研究和商談共同開發」，又表示將「共同管控好海上分歧」，「不採取使爭議複雜化、擴大化的行動」，「維護中越關係大局以及南海和平穩定」。此外，兩國重點提到經濟合作，除了協商跨境經濟合作區建設共同方案，還談到21世紀海上絲綢之路建設。

緩和中越關係，對於北京抗衡美國的「重返亞洲」戰略是非常關鍵的一着。

美日企圖拉攏越菲，插足南海牽制中國的盤算呼之欲出。面對美國大力渲染中國威脅論，中國外交部嚴辭反駁，批評有些國家雙重標準，長期對區內其他國家在南海爭議島礁大興土木不聞不問，卻「對中方在自己領土上的正常活動說三道四」，敦促美方尊重中國與區內相關國家通過對話解決問題的努力，「多說負責任的話，多做負責任的事」。

今年是美越關係正常化20周年，繼越南副防長阮志永上月訪美，阮富仲今年稍後出訪美國，加強兩國關係，促請美國解除對越南的武器禁售。不過，越南對華存有戒心之餘，也不會忘記兩大事實，一是中國「一帶一路」倡議可為越南經濟帶來巨大發展空間，這是美國不能提供的；二是越共也得提防美國推動越南政治體制改變的可能。

無論是越南決定加入由中國牽頭的亞投行，還是習近平向阮富仲表示歡迎越南參加創設「海上絲綢之路」，都反映中越兩國深明經濟合作能互惠共贏。越南政府當然希望美國提供安全保障，但也需要來自中國方面的經濟好處。在防止越南靠攏美日，北京算是暫時取得優勢，只要能審慎務實處理南海爭端，避免與越南反目，河內相信也不得不全力平衡與中美兩國的關係。