兩岸關係歷史轉折點 看蔡英文更要看美國

<轉載自2020年5月21日 明報 社評>

台灣「520」就職典禮，蔡英文宣誓展開第二個總統任期。國際形勢風起雲湧，中美鬥爭愈演愈烈，台海成為衝突熱點，蔡英文就職演講，兩岸關係表述未有新說法，隻字未提「九二共識」，兩岸冰霜難融，僵局無望打破，未來4年台海形勢會否惡化，還看中美鬥爭大局，以及台北當局會否進一步走向「法理台獨」，蔡政府對外有何操作、立法院修憲委員會有何動作，北京將密切留意。中美軍事動作頻頻，蔡英文提出加速發展「不對稱戰力」，意味軍事戰略更強調反擊反制，並非單純防守。蔡英文形容「兩岸關係正處於歷史轉折點」，未來究竟轉往哪裏，令人關注。

美卿賀就職挑戰北京 蔡英文不提九二共識

比較2016年及2020年兩次就職演說，蔡英文首次演說，尚有含糊提及1992年兩岸兩會會談，「達成若干共同認知與諒解，我尊重這個歷史事實」，然而昨天的演說，蔡英文已完全不提這個「歷史事實」，只重申「和平、對等、民主、對話」方針，以「中華民國憲法」和《兩岸人民關係條例》處理兩岸事務，目標是維持台海和平穩定。蔡英文又強調，不會接受北京當局以「一國兩制」矮化台灣。

蔡英文上台以來，兩岸關係陷入僵局，蔡政府不承認「九二共識」，看在北京眼裏就是不承認一個中國原則，兩岸關係和平發展的政治基礎不復存在，莫說政府間對話接觸，台海未來能否保持和平穩定也是疑問。昨天大陸國台辦回應蔡英文就職，一開始便重提民進黨當局拒絕承認「九二共識」，又指台灣一些政客「以疫謀獨」、「加緊勾連外部勢力破壞台海和平」，有台獨分子更圖謀「法理台獨」，形容當前兩岸關係形勢「複雜嚴峻」。未來4年兩岸僵局難有突破，局勢沒有進一步惡化已屬萬幸。

兩岸形勢複雜，關鍵在於美國因素。中美鬥爭白熱化，華府變本加厲打「台灣牌」，台北能否保住現有「邦交國」，也得看美國幕後操作。蔡英文表示，今後會積極尋求參與國際組織，能否如願取決於華府支持力度。近年華府避談「一中」立場，同時不斷提升美台關係，隱然在搞「雙重承認」，美軍艦艇多次駛經台海，美台官員互訪層次愈來愈高，安排愈來愈「官式化」。蔡英文昨天宣誓就職，美國國務卿蓬佩奧高調發聲明祝賀，是美國國務卿首度公開祝賀台灣總統就職，政治意義更是非比尋常。

當年陳水扁總統曾被華府視為麻煩製造者，此一時彼一時，近年中美關係由合作走向全面對抗，無論兩岸還是美國，不時有人談論戰爭的可能。華府支持蔡英文政府，利用台灣問題不斷打擦邊球挑戰北京，台北當局也配合美國的對華政策，不過中美一日未到全面攤牌地步，華府亦未敢去盡，以剛過去的世衛大會為例，美國不斷發動盟友支持台灣參與大會，卻又不願出頭正式向世衛提案，事情最終以台北當局向世衛遞信抗議未獲邀請與會作結。北京紅線清晰，台灣獨立必釀戰爭，屆時華府會否力挺卻成疑問，蔡英文必須審慎行事。

台北推動修憲成變數 美錯判形勢可釀戰禍

蔡英文未當上總統前，已主張修憲廢除考監兩院，以及降低修憲門檻，今後4年是實現願望的機會。連日來，多個台獨團體紛紛要求蔡英文修憲推動「法理台獨」，去除憲法「一個中國」相關架構和條文。蔡英文演說提到，立法院將成立修憲委員會，就「制度、人民權利、各項憲政改革議題」等展開討論，惟同時強調修憲仰賴全民「形成共識」，目前只會先針對朝野有共識的18歲公民權，作為修憲提案「第一步」。這個「第一步」爭議不大，北京密切留意的是下一步為何。

早前有民進黨立委提案修改《兩岸人民關係條例》和《憲法增修條文前言》，刪去「國家統一前」的字眼，引來軒然大波，民進黨高層劃清界線，提案最終撤回。事件反映民進黨高層明白，推動「法理台獨」後果可大可小，然而修憲問題始終是未來兩岸關係一大變數。經濟方面，蔡英文提到未來會把醫療、能源、糧食等重要產業鏈留在台灣，確保自給自足，這某程度是疫下世界各地大趨勢；演說重申新南向政策，亦不叫人意外。真正令人關注的是海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議（ECFA）生效期今年屆滿後，蔡政府會否放棄這項幫台商節省關稅超過2000億元新台幣的協議。

蔡英文提出改革防衛事務，包括加速發展「不對稱戰力」，反映台北當局有意調整軍事策略，在「守島」之餘，也要有反制攻擊力，然而兩岸軍力懸殊，台北提升「不對稱戰力」亦難改變軍事天秤，美國這個軍事後盾是否可靠，仍是關鍵所在。台海形勢風雲詭譎，台獨活動能走多遠，實際由華府幕後決定，不是台北當局可以話事。疫情導致國際環境出現變化，如果華府錯判形勢，認為可以利用台灣問題打擊中國，低估台獨引爆戰爭風險，未來數年台海形勢有可能急轉直下。

Tsai Ing-wen's inauguration

TSAI ING-WEN was sworn into her second term in Taiwan's presidential inauguration ceremony on May 20. With a storm brewing in the international arena and rivalry between China and the US gaining intensity by the day, the Taiwan Strait has become a tinderbox. Tsai did not come up with a new position on cross-strait relations in her inauguration speech, and there was absolutely no mention of the ''1992 consensus''. It is unlikely for the frosty cross-strait relations to thaw and the deadlock to be broken.

The cross-strait situation is complex because the crux of the matter lies with the US. As Sino-US rivalry is intensifying, Washington is playing the ''Taiwan card'' even more recklessly. It also hinges on the US's operations behind closed doors whether Taiwan can keep its allies. Tsai said that she would actively seek to participate in international organisations. Whether she can get her wish also depends on the level of support from Washington. In recent years, the US has avoided the ''one China'' stance but kept upgrading US-Taiwan relations, giving the impression that it is playing a ''double recognition'' game. US warships have sailed through the Taiwan Strait repeatedly, while US and Taiwan officials have been visiting each other at higher levels and with increasingly ''officialised'' arrangements. When Tsai was sworn in yesterday (May 20), US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a congratulatory statement in a high-profile manner. That was the first time a US Secretary of State had openly congratulated a Taiwanese President's inauguration. The political overtones are extraordinary.

While former Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian was regarded by Washington as a troublemaker, times are different now. In recent years, Sino-US relations have shifted from cooperation to full-on confrontation. There is talk about the possibility of war not only on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but also in the US. Washington, which supports the Tsai administration, has not stopped using the Taiwan issue to flirt with Beijing's bottom line, while the Taiwan authorities have also been cooperating with the US in its policy towards China. However, as long as China and the US are not facing a showdown, Washington will not dare pursue such a policy at full throttle. Take the recent World Health Assembly. Though the US had been motivating its allies to support Taiwan's participation, it was reluctant to submit a formal request to the World Health Organisation. The matter ended with the Taiwanese authorities protesting to the WHO against its refusal to invite Taiwan to the assembly. Beijing's red lines are clear. If Taiwan seeks independence, war will definitely ensue. It is questionable whether Washington will throw its weight behind Taiwan when that happens. Tsai must act with prudence.

Before Tsai became President, she had proposed amending the constitution so as to dissolve the Examination Yuan and Control Yuan and lowering the threshold for constitutional amendments. The coming four years will give her opportunities to do so. Recently, a number of pro-independence groups have demanded that Tsai amend the constitution to push for Taiwan's ''legal independence'' and remove frameworks and clauses about ''one China'' in the constitution. In her speech Tsai said that the Legislative Yuan would set up a constitutional amendment committee for discussion of the political system, civil rights and various issues concerning the reform of the constitution. But at the same time she stressed that the constitutional amendment required a universal consensus, and at the moment she would only focus on the civil rights of those reaching 18 years of age as the ''first step''. This ''first step'' is not very controversial. What Beijing is paying close attention to is what the next step will be.

The pandemic has brought changes to the international arena. If Washington misjudges the situation in the belief that it can weaken China by virtue of the Taiwan issue but underestimates the risk of war triggered by Taiwan's independence, the situation on the Taiwan Strait could make a sharp turn for the worse in the coming years.

兩岸關係歷史轉折點 看蔡英文更要看美國

台灣「520」就職典禮，蔡英文宣誓展開第二個總統任期。國際形勢風起雲湧，中美鬥爭愈演愈烈，台海成為衝突熱點，蔡英文就職演講，兩岸關係表述未有新說法，隻字未提「九二共識」，兩岸冰霜難融，僵局無望打破。

兩岸形勢複雜，關鍵在於美國因素。中美鬥爭白熱化，華府變本加厲打「台灣牌」，台北能否保住現有「邦交國」，也得看美國幕後操作。蔡英文表示，今後會積極尋求參與國際組織，能否如願取決於華府支持力度。近年華府避談「一中」立場，同時不斷提升美台關係，隱然在搞「雙重承認」，美軍艦艇多次駛經台海，美台官員互訪層次愈來愈高，安排愈來愈「官式化」。蔡英文昨天宣誓就職，美國國務卿蓬佩奧高調發聲明祝賀，是美國國務卿首度公開祝賀台灣總統就職，政治意義更是非比尋常。

當年陳水扁總統曾被華府視為麻煩製造者，此一時彼一時，近年中美關係由合作走向全面對抗，無論兩岸還是美國，不時有人談論戰爭的可能。華府支持蔡英文政府，利用台灣問題不斷打擦邊球挑戰北京，台北當局也配合美國的對華政策，不過中美一日未到全面攤牌地步，華府亦未敢去盡，以剛過去的世衛大會為例，美國不斷發動盟友支持台灣參與大會，卻又不願出頭正式向世衛提案，事情最終以台北當局向世衛遞信抗議未獲邀請與會作結。北京紅線清晰，台灣獨立必釀戰爭，屆時華府會否力挺卻成疑問，蔡英文必須審慎行事。

蔡英文未當上總統前，已主張修憲廢除考監兩院，以及降低修憲門檻，今後4年是實現願望的機會。連日來，多個台獨團體紛紛要求蔡英文修憲推動「法理台獨」，去除憲法「一個中國」相關架構和條文。蔡英文演說提到，立法院將成立修憲委員會，就「制度、人民權利、各項憲政改革議題」等展開討論，惟同時強調修憲仰賴全民「形成共識」，目前只會先針對朝野有共識的18歲公民權，作為修憲提案「第一步」。這個「第一步」爭議不大，北京密切留意的是下一步為何。

疫情導致國際環境出現變化，如果華府錯判形勢，認為可以利用台灣問題打擊中國，低估台獨引爆戰爭風險，未來數年台海形勢有可能急轉直下。