中國軍改 明年攻堅

<轉載自2015年12月14日 明報 社評>

時近年尾，北京有兩大重要會議，一個是中央經濟工作會議，一個是中央軍委擴大會議。今年的這兩個會議，都被定為是「攻堅戰」的部署會議，其中中央軍委擴大會議，部署的是備受關注的國防和軍隊改革的「攻堅」。

部署明年經濟和社會發展大計的中央經濟工作會議，閉幕當天即將核心內容公告天下；而中央軍委擴大會議從會期到內容，從來都秘而不宣。但北京消息透露，中央軍委擴大會議，上周起已在北京京西賓館召開。

中央軍委開擴大會 軍隊改革部署實施

11月24日至26日，北京曾召開「中央軍委改革工作會議」，習近平在會上的講話，被認為標誌着軍隊改革的終極拍板。也就是說，中國國防和軍隊改革的方案在會上已和盤托出，改革的領導機構正式組建，等待進入「實施階段」。

改革方案有了，領導小組成立了，改革的實施，還要透過另一個會議來部署，這就是一年一度的中央軍委擴大會議。

中央軍委擴大會議通常在12月舉行，決定來年軍隊工作大計，而今次會議唯一的議題，應該就是如何實施軍隊改革。雖然軍委擴大會議的內容從不對外公布，但中央軍委機關報《解放軍報》連發評論文章，側面透出中央軍委擴大會議的主題。由於今次中央軍委擴大會議的焦點議題不同於過去，所以連中共中央的機關報《人民日報》上，都發表解放軍總政治部署名的評論文章，來作更大範圍的思想動員，文章的標題是〈堅決打贏深化國防和軍隊改革這場攻堅戰——深入學習貫徹習主席關於深化國防和軍隊改革重要論述〉。

這篇長文，當然是宣講國防和軍隊改革的意義、方針、影響等。但值得留意的是，文章以一個「堅決反對」、四個「絕不允許」透露出的改革難度，包括「堅決反對政治上組織上行動上的自由主義，絕不允許說三道四、亂發議論，絕不允許自作主張、自行其是，絕不允許陽奉陰違、軟頂硬抗，絕不允許打折扣、搞變通」等等。

意義重大難度極高 屢失良機貪腐嚴重

這場軍隊改革，意義的確重大，也真是難度極高，要看明白得先從歷史上看。

晚清雖有洋務運動，但軍事轉型錯失良機，令中國在兩次鴉片戰爭中捱打，在甲午戰爭中一敗塗地。到了中華民國年代，先是軍閥割據，再有強敵入侵，最後國共內戰，更談不上軍事轉型。中共建政後至改革開放前，數度提出軍事變革要求，但基於當年軍隊的「山頭主義」，以及黨內權鬥，毛澤東也只是行換總長、調司令之事。

改革開放後，鄧小平曾動大手術，百萬大裁軍，但軍隊根本體制未能觸動。江澤民、胡錦濤兩人主政23年，伴隨着日漸升高的「軍事變革」口號，演出的是深層次的軍隊腐敗。

中國今次要從解放軍編制體制、機構人事各個方面，展開大範圍深層次的軍事變革，有人認為等同「推倒重來」，有諸多原因，一個是要改變軍隊現狀，一個是呼應國家發展大戰略。

習近平接任軍委主席之後，第一個治軍要求是「能打仗，打勝仗」，但解放軍的現狀是既不能戰，更無戰勝把握。因腐敗滲透軍中，由中央軍委到基層連隊，都有貪腐問題。於是要展開軍中反腐，拿總後勤部副部長谷俊山開刀，到用中央軍委副主席徐才厚、郭伯雄祭旗，迄今已有近50名軍級以上高級將領受查「落馬」，校尉之類小蒼蠅被拍更多。此外，機構臃腫，頭重腳輕，正如鄧小平多年前形容的，「這樣龐大的機關，不要說指揮打仗，跑反（走難）都跑不贏」。習近平深感體制機制的深層問題不解決不行，遂下決心要軍隊改革，特別是領導管理體制的改革，來實現戰鬥力重建。

肅貪興革提升戰力 為十九大預作鋪墊

與之同時，隨着中國綜合國力不斷提升，面臨的安全壓力也開始上升。2013年中共十八屆三中全會，首提「完善國家安全體制」，翌年習近平提出「軍事創新」的要求，經過一年「頂層設計」，最後形成國防和軍隊改革的方案，在2016年全面展開。其目標，就是要形成「強軍戰略」，「2020年前要在領導管理體制、聯合作戰指揮體制改革上取得突破性進展」。

這次軍隊改革重點，無論是撤銷四總部，削減總政權限，成立聯合作戰指揮部，還是新設陸軍總部，七大軍區變五大戰區，都顯示既要透過變革來實現肅貪變得「能打仗」，又要因應滿足大國戰略的需要，實現「打勝仗」。此外，還有一層政治深意。明年對中共、對習近平來說，是權力重組的十九大籌備之年。解放軍不僅是一支國防力量，還是一支政治力量。國防和軍隊的改革，既要動機構，又要變人事，新中央軍委組成和新作戰體系建構，將有一批新將領走上前台，他們不僅是一支政治新軍，還將成十九大權力重構的壓台基石。

The reform of China's military forces

AS the end of the year is drawing near, two important meetings in Beijing, namely the Central Economic Work Conference and the enlarged meeting of the Central Military Commission (CMC), will be coming around soon. This year, the two meetings are deemed to be the meetings of planning for the "storming of fortifications". The enlarged meeting of the CMC, in particular, is about the "storming of fortifications" in aspects like national defence and the reform of the military forces, both of which have aroused a lot of concern.

During the Central Economic Work Conference, next year's economic and social development will be planned. Its main ideas will be announced to the public the day the conference ends. The time and details of the enlarged meeting of the CMC, however, have always been kept secret. That said, sources from Beijing have disclosed that the meeting already began last week at Jinxi Hotel in Beijing.

The reform of the military forces is indeed of paramount importance. It is also extraordinarily difficult. To understand why it is so, we have to look back at what has happened in history.

Despite the introduction of the Self-Strengthening Movement, which took place during the late Qing Dynasty, the opportunity to restructure the military forces was missed. As a result, the Chinese forces were fighting at a disadvantage in the two Opium Wars, and suffered a crushing defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War. During the Republic of China era, China was a divided country ruled by different warlords. Later came the military aggression by a strong rival country, which was followed by the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party (CPC). The issue of restructuring the military forces was not dealt with. During the period between the establishment of the People's Republic of China and the introduction of the Reform and Opening Up policy, the topic of military reform was raised repeatedly. However, owing to factionalism and internal power struggles within the CPC, what Mao Zedong did was merely the change of personnel. After the Reform and Opening Up policy was introduced, Deng Xiaoping gave the system a major overhaul, and a million soldiers were disarmed. Still, there was little change in the structure of the military forces. During the rule of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, which spanned 23 years, what happened under the growing calls for military reform was actually deep-seated corruption of the military forces.

This time around, the Chinese government is to pursue deep and wide-ranging military reform that involves aspects like the structure and organisation of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and personnel management, so much so that some compare the reform to starting everything from scratch. There are many reasons why the Chinese government is doing so. First, it wants to change the state of the military forces. Second, it wants to bring the reform in line with the master plan of the country's development.

After Xi Jinping became the new Chairman of the CMC, he presented his first demands to the military forces: the ability to take part in battles, and the ability to win battles. But the PLA is actually incapable of either fighting or winning battles. This is because corruption is rampant in the forces, which affects not only the CMC, but also the rank and file. That is why an anti-corruption campaign has started in the military. Gu Junshan, Deputy Director of the PLA General Logistics Department, was given the sack. Later Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong, Vice-Chairmen of the CMC, were dismissed. Furthermore, the military is a cumbersome organisation which "has a big head and small feet". Deng Xiaoping said many years ago, "It is such an unwieldy system that our soldiers cannot even outrun the opponents when they have to flee, not to mention beating them when they have to fight." Xi knows perfectly well that the deep-seated problems of the organisation have to be solved. To rebuild its combat capability, he is determined to pursue the reform of the military, especially the reform of its leadership.

This round of military reform carries another profound meaning. To the CPC and Xi himself, next year will be the year for the planning of the 19th National Congress of the CPC, which will be an event of power-restructuring. The PLA is not only a defence force, but also a political force.

中國軍改 明年攻堅

時近年尾，北京有兩大重要會議，一個是中央經濟工作會議，一個是中央軍委擴大會議。今年的這兩個會議，都被定為是「攻堅戰」的部署會議，其中中央軍委擴大會議，部署的是備受關注的國防和軍隊改革的「攻堅」。

部署明年經濟和社會發展大計的中央經濟工作會議，閉幕當天即將核心內容公告天下；而中央軍委擴大會議從會期到內容，從來都秘而不宣。但北京消息透露，中央軍委擴大會議，上周起已在北京京西賓館召開。

這場軍隊改革，意義的確重大，也真是難度極高，要看明白得先從歷史上看。

晚清雖有洋務運動，但軍事轉型錯失良機，令中國在兩次鴉片戰爭中捱打，在甲午戰爭中一敗塗地。到了中華民國年代，先是軍閥割據，再有強敵入侵，最後國共內戰，更談不上軍事轉型。中共建政後至改革開放前，數度提出軍事變革要求，但基於當年軍隊的「山頭主義」，以及黨內權鬥，毛澤東也只是行換總長、調司令之事。

改革開放後，鄧小平曾動大手術，百萬大裁軍，但軍隊根本體制未能觸動。江澤民、胡錦濤兩人主政23年，伴隨着日漸升高的「軍事變革」口號，演出的是深層次的軍隊腐敗。

中國今次要從解放軍編制體制、機構人事各個方面，展開大範圍深層次的軍事變革，有人認為等同「推倒重來」，有諸多原因，一個是要改變軍隊現狀，一個是呼應國家發展大戰略。

習近平接任軍委主席之後，第一個治軍要求是「能打仗，打勝仗」，但解放軍的現狀是既不能戰，更無戰勝把握。因腐敗滲透軍中，由中央軍委到基層連隊，都有貪腐問題。於是要展開軍中反腐，拿總後勤部副部長谷俊山開刀，到用中央軍委副主席徐才厚、郭伯雄祭旗。此外，機構臃腫，頭重腳輕，正如鄧小平多年前形容的，「這樣龐大的機關，不要說指揮打仗，跑反（走難）都跑不贏」。習近平深感體制機制的深層問題不解決不行，遂下決心要軍隊改革，特別是領導管理體制的改革，來實現戰鬥力重建。

這次軍隊改革重點，還有一層政治深意。明年對中共、對習近平來說，是權力重組的十九大籌備之年。解放軍不僅是一支國防力量，還是一支政治力量。