中美日與兩岸關係波譎雲詭

<轉載自2015年9月7日 明報 社評版>

台灣總統選舉選情最近出現變局，泛藍陣營的兩名候選人國民黨的洪秀柱和親民黨的宋楚瑜先後宣布「閉關」、「思考與沉澱」，藍綠候選人之間的氣勢差距進一步擴闊，以至民進黨候選人蔡英文上周甚至放言，「明年我們就要上工了」。

熟悉島內政情的人士都會同意，只要沒有重大意外事件發生，藍營棄宋保洪也好，棄洪保宋也好，明年1月都很難改變蔡英文當選的局面。

國際情勢變 美日利用台

與2012年總統大選不同的是，中美關係近期已因東海、南海、網絡黑客等問題進一步惡化，雖然國家主席習近平本月將對美作首次國事訪問，但預料雙方在重大議題上的分歧不易彌合，反而因適逢美國大選年，國內反華聲浪高漲，再加上蔡英文之前訪美與美方溝通良好，而島內藍綠攻守互易，美國不公開挺綠已算克制，不太可能重演4年前挺藍抑綠、介入台灣大選的一幕。

明年的台灣大選面臨的外部變數，還有日本。目前中日關係仍在低谷，兩國關係緩和的勢頭因中國高調紀念抗戰勝利70周年活動及日本安倍政權強推安保法案而受挫。值得注意的是，不久前台灣前總統李登輝訪日後大放厥辭，不僅重申釣魚台屬日本所有，更公開宣稱台日原屬一國，台灣在二戰中並無抗戰，云云。在島內引起了二戰歷史觀的大辯論，結合所謂「反課綱」的運動，令台灣皇民化思潮甚囂塵上，這也為民進黨二次執政做了意識形態的準備。

日本本來就是台獨運動的大本營，在中日關係僵化的今天，日方批准李登輝訪日，並允許他高調發聲，在在都顯示有意利用台灣牽制中國，這點在中日釣魚島糾紛白熱化之際，日本與台灣間簽署漁業協定也可略窺一斑。

島內民意轉 兩岸牌不靈

本來2012年總統選舉，民進黨輸在兩岸政策的「最後一哩路」，令綠營選後一度反思其「中國政策」，但始終跨不過台獨黨綱和基本教義這道坎。近3年國際情勢的變化，特別是島內民意的丕變，太陽花學運將兩岸經貿污名化，令國民黨的兩岸牌打不響，反而成了原罪，被打上了政商勾結的標籤。這恐怕也是北京始料不及的。

有美、日的認可力挺，有島內馬英九總統民望屢見新低，太陽花學運和反課綱運動的輿論準備，有洪、宋兩人的泛藍分裂，加上連戰赴京閱兵引發的新爭議，蔡英文明年1月的勝出可謂天時、地利、人和俱備，想不贏都難。

兩岸重交惡 香港難獨善

所以，北京已經開始準備應對民進黨上台後的兩岸關係新局面。今年3月全國兩會期間，中共總書記習近平為兩岸關係定調稱，「九二共識」是兩岸關係和平發展的基礎，「基礎不牢，地動山搖」。但是，迄今為止，民進黨和蔡英文對兩岸政策仍然堅持「維持現狀」的模糊表態，迴避正面回應「九二共識」。因此，可以預期，從明年1月蔡英文當選到明年5月20日她就職，會是北京對她的觀察期，聽其言，觀其行，也是她與大陸調適互動的觀察期，「5．20」的就職演說，是觀察其調適的一個指標。蔡英文如果再祭出陳水扁當年的「四不一沒有」恐怕無法令北京收穫，果如是，蔡英文上任後，兩岸關係恐怕面臨新的考驗。

習近平沒有解釋兩岸關係如何「地動山搖」，但從目前台灣出口對大陸約39％的依存度、每年近千萬陸客遊台的規模，兩岸關係的惡化，顯然會對台灣經濟帶來相當的衝擊。此外，兩岸關係一旦走回頭路，外交休兵就會結束，台灣的外交空間恐再面臨縮限，不僅是邦交國數量問題，而且台北要參與地區經濟整合如東盟10+3或區域全面經濟伙伴協定（RCEP）也難過北京這一關，這樣固然會進一步加劇兩岸民間的敵對，但最大的受害者將會是台灣人民。

兩岸關係如果惡化，香港並不能置身事外，除了兩岸經貿往來的減少會給香港帶來一定的衝擊外，北京對台港兩地的交往以及香港支持台獨言行的敏感度亦會提升，作為「一國兩制」下的特區，香港與台灣各方面交往已經十分緊密，屆時，如北京重新強化20年前的「錢七條」來規限台港交流，對香港各方面的影響殊難逆料。

Taiwan presidential election and international diplomacy

THE Taiwan presidential race has recently taken a new turn. The two candidates from the pan-blue coalition, Hung Hsiu-chu of Kuomintang (KMT) and James Soong of the People First Party, have announced one after another that they will "closet herself away" and "take stock of what has happened" respectively. This has given the pan-green coalition new momentum at the expense of the blues, so much so that Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, declared last week that "we will have to start working next year."

Those who are familiar with Taiwanese politics would agree that, unless things take a dramatic turn, Tsai's election as Taiwanese president next January will be a foregone conclusion, no matter whether it is Hung or Soong who is "ditched" by the pan-blue coalition in an attempt to improve its chances.

The upcoming Taiwanese election is different from the one in 2012. Thanks to the sovereignty disputes over East China Sea and South China Sea, as well as issues like computer hacking, the relations between China and the US have deteriorated recently. Though Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, is to make his first state visit to the US later this month, it is not expected that the two countries will narrow their differences over the important issues. Quite the contrary, since the US will also have a presidential election next year, anti-Chinese sentiments in the country are running high. Not to mention the fact that Tsai's recent visit to US has ended on a friendly note. With the pan-green opposition on the offensive, the White House is not expected to interfere in the Taiwanese election by throwing its weight behind the pro-blue coalition, which it did four years ago. The White House might even win praise for being "restrained" if it refrains from endorsing the pro-green coalition.

The Taiwanese presidential race is also being influenced by Japan. Sino-Japanese relations are at a low ebb, and efforts to improve the relations have been thwarted by China's high-profile commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the victory over Japanese aggression and the new security bills in Japan, which have been pushed through by the Abe administration. Also worth our attention are the provocative comments made by Lee Teng-hui, the former Taiwanese president, after his recent visit to Japan. Not only did he reiterate that the Diaoyu Islands belong to Japan, he also claimed that Taiwan and Japan were one country and that Taiwan did not fight against Japan during the Second World War. Owing to such comments, which have led to a heated debate over WWII history in Taiwan, as well as the so-called "Anti Black Box Course outline Movement", there is a rising tide in favour of Japanisation in Taiwan. All this is bound to provide the ideological foundation for a second DPP government.

The DPP was pipped at the post in the 2012 presidential election thanks to its cross-strait policy. After the defeat, there was indeed some reflection within the pro-green coalition on its "China policy". But the coalition eventually succumbed to the DPP's pro-independence party stance as well as its basic ideologies. Things in the international arena, including public opinion in Taiwan, have changed fast over the past three years. The ECFA deal has been vilified by the Sunflower Student Movement. KMT's cross-strait policy has not only lost its popularity, but also become its "original sin". The deal is now deemed to be a product of collusion between businessmen and government officials. This is what the Beijing authorities had not expected.

The deterioration of relations across the Taiwan Strait will also impact on Hong Kong. Not only will the reduction of cross-strait trade affect us, the Beijing authorities will also be more sensitive about the interactions between Taiwan and Hong Kong and opinions made in Hong Kong in support of Taiwan independence. By virtue of the "One Country, Two Systems" policy, Hong Kong has been having frequent interactions with Taiwan in many aspects. It is difficult to estimate how Hong Kong will be affected if the Beijing authorities decide to restrict Hong Kong-Taiwan interactions.

中美日與兩岸關係波譎雲詭

台灣總統選舉選情最近出現變局，泛藍陣營的兩名候選人國民黨的洪秀柱和親民黨的宋楚瑜先後宣布「閉關」、「思考與沉澱」，藍綠候選人之間的氣勢差距進一步擴闊，以至民進黨候選人蔡英文上周甚至放言，「明年我們就要上工了」。

熟悉島內政情的人都會同意，只要沒有重大意外事件發生，藍營棄宋保洪也好，棄洪保宋也好，明年1月都很難改變蔡英文當選的局面。

與2012年總統大選不同的是，中美關係近期已因東海、南海、網絡黑客等問題進一步惡化，雖然國家主席習近平本月將對美作首次國事訪問，但預料雙方在重大議題上的分歧不易彌合，反而因適逢美國大選年，國內反華聲浪高漲，再加上蔡英文之前訪美與美方溝通良好，而島內藍綠攻守互易，美國不公開挺綠已算克制，不太可能重演4年前挺藍抑綠、介入台灣大選的一幕。

明年的台灣大選面臨的外部變數，還有日本。目前中日關係仍在低谷，兩國關係緩和的勢頭因中國高調紀念抗戰勝利70周年活動及日本安倍政權強推安保法案而受挫。值得注意的是，不久前台灣前總統李登輝訪日後大放厥辭，不僅重申釣魚台屬日本所有，更公開宣稱台日原屬一國，台灣在二戰中並無抗戰，云云。在島內引起了二戰歷史觀的大辯論，結合所謂「反課綱」的運動，令台灣皇民化思潮甚囂塵上，這也為民進黨二次執政做了意識形態的準備。

本來2012年總統選舉，民進黨輸在兩岸政策的「最後一哩路」，令綠營選後一度反思其「中國政策」，但始終跨不過台獨黨綱和基本教義這道坎。近3年國際情勢的變化，特別是島內民意的丕變，太陽花學運將兩岸經貿污名化，令國民黨的兩岸牌打不響，反而成了原罪，被打上了政商勾結的標籤。這恐怕也是北京始料不及的。

兩岸關係如果惡化，香港並不能置身事外，除了兩岸經貿往來的減少會給香港帶來一定的衝擊外，北京對台港兩地的交往以及香港支持台獨言行的敏感度亦會提升，作為「一國兩制」下的特區，香港與台灣各方面交往已經十分緊密，屆時，如北京規限台港交流，對香港各方面的影響殊難逆料。