大小氣候今非昔比 茉莉花革命在華難成氣候

<轉載自2011年2月22日 明報社評>

內地網民在13個城市發起「茉莉花革命」集會，表面上，這是突尼斯民主革命，在北非中東掀起骨牌效應而蔓延的結果；不過，現今國際與中國之間的關係，與21年前六四事件相比，根本不同，新一波民主化浪潮，對中國難以構成重大衝擊，也就是說茉莉花革命在內地難成氣候。儘管如此，中共當局應利用當下較大的迴旋空間，主導政治體制改革，整飭吏治，消除貪污腐敗，掃除真正引發暴力革命的隱患，使中國真正穩定和長治久安。

國際大氣候：催谷經濟復蘇 中國位置關鍵

1989年六四慘劇發生之後，6月9日鄧小平露面，接見戒嚴部隊高級幹部，當時他的講話，說到「這場風波遲早要來，這是國際的大氣候和中國自己的小氣候所決定了的」。鄧小平這個論斷，完全切合當時國際的大氣候和中國的小氣候。1985年，前蘇共總書記戈爾巴喬夫上台，提出新思維，以人道主義為核心，在社會主義陣營產生廣泛影響，受前蘇聯控制的華沙集團，各國在爭取民主自由已見譟動，加上前蘇聯經濟不景，國力滑落，對東歐諸國的控制力度，也見鬆動。六四事件發生當天，波蘭團結工會在大選中獲勝，推翻社會主義制度，是當時國際大氣候的寫照。

至於當時中國的小氣候，正在經歷改革開放陣痛，例如要放開價格管制，強攻物價關，導致1988年初全國通脹高達20%。政治上，胡耀邦作風開明，知識界對中國走自由民主法治之路的探索，甚為活躍，被保守派定性為「資產階級自由化」，與自由派壁壘分明。當時中共保守勢力強大，胡耀邦承受巨大壓力，1986年底，安徽合肥中國科學技術大學的學生發動大規模示威，要求民主和反貪，保守派反撲，使胡耀邦黯然下台。

所以，從國際大氣候社會主義陣營自由化、民主化的譟動，中國小氣候的經改陣痛、政治無出路和官倒、貪污等不公平現象，藉着胡耀邦病逝，演發成為一場波瀾壯闊的民主運動，事件進程和結果，雖然涉及偶然巧合和中共黨內鬥爭等因素，但是從全球角度看來，「六四」並非孤立事件，而是當時各個社會主義國家民主化的一部分，只是中國這一次與民主擦肩而過，而且以血腥鎮壓收場。鄧小平提出大氣候、小氣候論斷之後數月，東歐社會主義國家先後發生和平演變，兩年後蘇共亦垮台，蘇聯宣告解體。

近期，由突尼斯變天演發至埃及、利比亞、也門、伊朗等北非中東國家的民主浪潮，總體而言，這是全球國家民主化進程的一部分，不過，以現在的特定歷史時空，北非民主浪潮並非當今國際大氣候，全球致力爭取經濟復蘇，才是現實的國際大氣候，中國藉着經濟實力在現今的國際大氣候，佔據關鍵地位。

北非諸國的經濟總量有限，其動盪對全球市場的影響，不及中國為了壓制通脹、樓價而實施的貨幣緊縮政策。另外，中國經濟成為全球經濟復蘇的其中一個火車頭，美國經濟之良窳，關鍵在於能否增加出口，創造更多職位，降低失業率，上月國家主席胡錦濤訪問美國時，奧巴馬總統公開表示美國要把所有產品賣給中國，確切說明了美國要借助中國以達至經濟復蘇的策略。所以，全球第一大和第二大經濟體的相互補足關係，正是2008年金融海嘯之後，國際大氣候的主旋律。基於此，相信美國不欲見到中國此際出現政治動盪，影響其復蘇大計。

至於此際中國的小氣候，雖然貪污腐敗較22年前尤有過之，地域差異、貧富懸殊、官民對立等深層次矛盾，日益尖銳，但是在經濟榮景之下，一切構成撩動群衆運動的弊端，都會暫時被掃入地氈底。所以，網民雖然在全國13個城市發起「茉莉花革命」集會，但是真箇響應行動的民衆並不多，反而公安如臨大敵，其在現場「維持」秩序的人員，不少於真正到場集會的民衆。

廣州維權律師遭毆傷 當局應追究嚴懲

內地當局大力鎮壓這次中國茉莉花活動，是貫徹要消滅於萌芽狀態的方針，不過，英文《環球時報》報道網民這次行動時，只說是少數人搞「行為藝術」以引人注目，避談行動的政治性，顯然與行動未獲廣泛迴響，不作強烈批評，以免激化矛盾有關。這次「茉莉花革命」集會，雖然未能引發更大效果，但是有北京民衆提出每月進行一次，毋須理由，純粹為了散步。現在說集會能否演變至群衆運動，言之尚早，只要民衆不放棄，民主中國就有實現的一日。

這次網民發起的「中國茉莉花革命」不成氣候，內地當局不應沾沾自喜，民衆的克制、平和，有兩方面值得當局參考。

首先，廣州維權律師劉士輝離家準備參加集會，被人蒙頭圍毆受傷，雖然並無確切證據證明是廣州執法人員所為，但是他們脫不了嫌疑。下令毒打手無寸鐵律師的人，應受到譴責，若自詡依法治國，則應該揪出這種人，予以法律制裁。相對於北京、上海公安的舉措，今次廣州公安就顯得野蠻了。對於群衆運動，疏導比堵塞、打壓好，以免出現壓迫力愈大，反抗力愈大的惡性循環。

其次，民衆理性平和，中共當局有更大空間主導政治體制改革，透過制度建設，整飭吏治，締造一個更公平合理的社會。我們一貫認為，現在由中共主導改革，使中國走向民主自由法治，最符合國家和民族的最大利益，民衆不用事事訴諸群衆運動，國家才可以真正長治久安。

Jasmine Revolution

WAVES of popular protests have swept across North Africa and the Middle East. Some mainland netizens had called on people to join Jasmine Revolution gatherings yesterday in thirteen major cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. Yesterday saw no massive rallies on the mainland. However, hundreds of people once gathered in Wangfujing, Beijing. Public security police had to disperse crowds, and some citizens were taken away. In recent years, corruption has been prevalent and the rich-poor gap has been widening on the mainland, where common people have long been full of grievances against the privileged. Though nothing untoward happened yesterday, it is common knowledge that people are resentful and indignant. The mainland authorities should allow people to vent their resentment instead of suppressing them. The most effective way they can avert a Jasmine Revolution is to take effective steps to rid the people of scourges. The best weapon they can use to maintain stability is what safeguards people's rights and interests.

Over the past thirty years, the Chinese economy has grown rapidly, and most mainland people now have better lives than they did. "Surpass the UK and catch up with the US" was once regarded as a boastful slogan. China has already surpassed the UK, and it is no longer a grotesque fantasy that it will one day catch up with the US. Now mainlanders have hopes that they will someday become rich. Such being the social atmosphere, the fire of revolution is unlikely to kindle. However, on the mainland, many officials collude with businesspeople and abuse their powers, people have been forcibly expelled from their dwellings so that they can be demolished, and ordinary citizens' rights and interests have constantly been encroached upon. The seeds for social unrest were sown long ago.

When its economy keeps growing quite fast at nearly 10% a year, the mainland's problems may not fully emerge. However, if its economic growth slows down, unemployment and other problems will worsen, and popular resentment (which has accumulated over the years) may flare up.

The mainland authorities know how grave the problems are, but what is crucial is how to tackle them. The day before yesterday, President Hu Jintao said, "It is necessary to do more to deal with social contradictions at source and rectify evil tendencies that have harmed the masses' interests." Yesterday, Zhou Yongkang, who sits on the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, said, "It is necessary to try hard to end contradictions or disputes in the bud." However, it is not possible to end social contradictions by suppressing common people, prohibiting them from gathering together or deleting what they have said on the Internet. The more vigorously the government suppresses the people, the more vocal their defiance will be. Popular resentment should be given full vent to rather than contained.

The National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference are in session next month. We hope the central government will then come up with reforms of the system designed to crack down on corruption. We also hope it will gradually subject itself to the media's supervision so that people's concerns will be effectively represented. Only if mainlanders' rights and interests are protected and there are channels through which they may vent their resentment or air their grievances will they refrain from invariably resorting to mass movements and will there be lasting social and political stability on the mainland.