中美南海角力升級 分歧難消鬥而不破

<轉載自2016年4月25日 明報 社評>

中美近期就南海問題的角力不斷升級，文戲武戲陸續登場。縱觀局勢，雙方猶如在下一盤圍棋，美方重「取勢」，謀取一個新的國際圍堵圈，以壓迫北京在南海島礁建設的空間；中方則固守「實地」，加快已填島礁民用和軍用設施建設，並以島礁建設的既成事實改變被圍「大勢」。這場纏鬥短期不會結束，結構性矛盾分歧難消，但中美兩國「高手過招」，還是會鬥而不破。

先是美國防長卡特爽約訪華，美軍還與菲律賓搞「肩並肩」演習，卡特並登上在南海巡弋的航空母艦。這無疑是對中國施加軍事壓力。北京則還以顏色，中央軍委副主席范長龍登上南沙島礁。雖然中方未透露是哪個島礁，但因為目前已通大型民航機的南沙島礁只有永暑島，相信范上將視察的正是這個中國在南沙群島的戰略重地。解放軍對美方傳遞的動作，傳遞的信息是毫不示弱、針鋒相對。

中美過招針鋒相對 美爭大勢華衛實地

接着，美方指摘「中國在南海附近發射了東風41多彈頭洲際導彈」。北京國防部新聞局表示，中國在境內按計劃進行科研試驗是正常的，這些試驗不針對任何特定國家和目標。媒體報道的試驗地點純屬猜測。

在河內為總統奧巴馬5月底訪越做準備的美國常務副國務卿布林肯，再度質疑中國在南海填海造島及「軍事化」並稱美將繼續在國際法允許的任何地方自由進行「航行和飛越」。北京外交部則重申在南沙島礁上部署必要、適度的國土防禦設施，是行使根據國際法享有的自保權，無可非議；堅決反對有關國家打着「航行和飛越自由」的旗號威脅和損害沿海中國的主權和安全。

中美在南海角力的升級，引起了地區和國際社會的擔憂，有評論甚至指「中美難免一戰」。其實，這是過慮了。當下，有兩個基礎條件決定中美不可戰。第一，「核恐怖平衡」。冷戰時代美蘇不戰是因為雙方都擁有將對方毁滅無數次的能力。如今，中國的核武與美國雖有很大差距，但仍具有二次反擊毀滅美國的能力。第二，中美利益互相滲透，每年雙邊貿易額超過5500億美元，一損俱損。實際上，中美也嚴格管控分歧，建立了兩軍海上和空中相遇聯絡避免意外的機制，高度警惕發生意外，「擦槍走火」。

美方豎劍而非開戰 中方自信天時地利

從這個基本判斷出發，可以看到美國在南海的軍事行動，是要在北京頭上「豎劍」而不是要開戰。美國重返亞太，有兩個基點，一是60％的軍力調至亞太；二是推動跨太平洋戰略經濟伙伴關係協議（TPP），自然其目的是制衡快速崛起的中國。不過，從奧巴馬首個任期，對南海問題不持立場，到現在的積極介入，明顯政策已作調整。可以說，美方目前是將介入南海作為制約中國的新手段。

首先，加大軍事壓力，調派更多的戰艦和軍機到南海，甚至闖入中國南沙島礁12海里範圍。其次，運用法律武器，支持菲律賓將南海問題提交海牙國際法庭，法庭不久將有判決，相信對中國弊多利少。再就是，將南海問題提交G7，拉攏英國等更多域外國家介入，支持日本軍力進入南海，謀求一個新的針對和孤立中國的國際陣線。

應該說，美國在南海的「取勢」圍棋，確有一定成效，中國是感受到相當大的壓力。不過，北京的應對之策也是明確可見的。第一，利用各種場合明確表示國家主權不可退讓，寸島寸海絕不丟失。第二，表明不懼戰，以不懼戰來止戰。范長龍先於卡特登航母前登島，即是「我不怕你來」的示強姿態。第三，北京雖不參加南海國際仲裁，但是不輕視法律戰，主動對國際社會表明擁有南海諸島的國際法律根據。第四，亦對域外國家做外交工作，爭取更多的支持減少對手。第五，加快島礁建設。范長龍登島視察，以及軍機飛島接運病人，傳遞的另一個信息是，中國不會迫於壓力和「軍事化」指摘而停止島礁上的各種軍用和民用工程，反而盡快使南沙島礁成為中國最南端的戰略基地。

顯然，中國南海兵棋之策是謀取「實地」，固守現有島礁而不退縮就是勝利。美「取勢」而壓縮中方「實地」，中方則相信固守「實地」才能支撐「大勢」。相信，南海的棋局將會持續，這是中美之間遏制和反遏制結構矛盾決定的，但是中美之間也存在共同利益，依然會維持鬥而不破的格局。中國相信南海在自家門口，時間在自己一邊，最終美方只能接受中國島礁建設的既成事實。

Sino-US wrestling

SINO-US wrestling over the South China Sea (SCS) question has recently kept escalating. The two countries have kept putting on wenxi as well as wuxi (scenes of singing (talking) as well as scenes of acrobatic fighting (fighting))". Viewed panoramically, the situation is like a weiqi game. The Americans consider it important to "gain influence". They seek to put in place a new ring of international containment to make it harder for the Chinese to build up islets and reefs there. As for the Chinese, they keep a firm hold on "terra firma" and have stepped up the construction of civil and military facilities on islets and reefs there.

The escalation of Sino-US wrestling about the SCS has occasioned worry in the region and the world community. Some commentators even say "a Sino-US war is inevitable". They actually worry overmuch. There are now two basic factors that preclude war between them. First, though its nuclear capabilities fall way short of the US's, China is capable of destroying that country in a second counterattack. Second, their interests are so very much entwined that, if one is harmed, the other is harmed too. In fact the two countries strictly manage and control their differences. They have put in place a mechanism for preventing accidents by having their armed services encounter and liaise with one another on the sea and in the air. They maintain sharp vigilance and are constantly on guard against any accident like a "discharge from a gun being cleaned".

One may see in the light of that fundamental judgement that, in taking military action in the SCS, the Americans aim at "hanging a sword" above Beijing instead of going to war against China. There are two basic points of the US's return to Asia-Pacific. First, it has deployed 60% of its military strength to the region. Second, it is trying to push the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The object of its doing so is of course to restrain China (which is rapidly rising).

First, it has stepped up its military pressure, sending more naval vessels and military planes to the SCS. They have even gone within twelve nautical miles of China's Nansha islands and reefs. Second, it supports the Philippines' move of taking the SCS question to the International Court of Justice (in The Hague). The court is soon to hand down its ruling, which will conceivably be more unfavourable than favourable to China. Third, it has made the SCS question an issue at the G7 summit and involved more countries outside the region like the UK in the matter. Furthermore, it supports Japanese forces' entry into the SCS. In short, it seeks to put together a new international front that sets itself against China and aims at isolating it.

One should say the US's attempts to "gain influence" in the SCS has produced certain results. China indeed feels considerable pressure. However, China's countermeasures are distinctly visible. First, it makes use of all occasions to declare that it cannot possibly make any concession when it comes to sovereignty and it must not lose even an inch of its maritime or land territory. Second, it makes it clear that it has no fear of war and tries to stop war by not fearing war. Third, Beijing does not take court battles lightly. It makes clear of its own accord the international-law basis for its claim to sovereignty over SCS islands. Fourth, it works on countries outside the region diplomatically with a view to having more supporters and fewer enemies. Fifth, it has stepped up construction on SCS islets and reefs.

Clearly, the strategy China uses in the SCS weiqi match is to gain "terra firma". It will think it has won if it manages to keep the islets and reefs it now has without flinching. The Americans want to "gain influence" so as to diminish China's "terra firma", but China is convinced that "the whole situation" cannot be supported unless it has a firm hold on "terra firma". Conceivably, the SCS weiqi game will go on. However, China and the US have interests in common. It will remain the case that they will keep fighting each other without falling out with each other. China believes that, as the SCS is at its door, time is on its side and the Americans will eventually have to live with the fait accompli that it has built up SCS islets and reefs.

中美南海角力升級 分歧難消鬥而不破

中美近期就南海問題的角力不斷升級，文戲武戲陸續登場。縱觀局勢，雙方猶如在下一盤圍棋，美方重「取勢」，謀取一個新的國際圍堵圈，以壓迫北京在南海島礁建設的空間；中方則固守「實地」，加快已填島礁民用和軍用設施建設，並以島礁建設的既成事實改變被圍「大勢」。

中美在南海角力的升級，引起了地區和國際社會的擔憂，有評論甚至指「中美難免一戰」。其實，這是過慮了。當下，有兩個基礎條件決定中美不可戰。第一，如今，中國的核武與美國雖有很大差距，但仍具有二次反擊毁滅美國的能力。第二，中美利益互相滲透，一損俱損。實際上，中美也嚴格管控分歧，建立了兩軍海上和空中相遇聯絡避免意外的機制，高度警惕發生意外，「擦槍走火」。

從這個基本判斷出發，可以看到美國在南海的軍事行動，是要在北京頭上「豎劍」而不是要開戰。美國重返亞太，有兩個基點，一是60％的軍力調至亞太；二是推動跨太平洋戰略經濟伙伴關係協議（TPP），自然其目的是制衡快速崛起的中國。

首先，加大軍事壓力，調派更多的戰艦和軍機到南海，甚至闖入中國南沙島礁12海里範圍。其次，支持菲律賓將南海問題提交海牙國際法庭，法庭不久將有判決，相信對中國弊多利少。再就是，將南海問題提交G7，拉攏英國等更多域外國家介入，支持日本軍力進入南海，謀求一個新的針對和孤立中國的國際陣線。

應該說，美國在南海的「取勢」，確有一定成效，中國是感受到相當大的壓力。不過，北京的應對之策也是明確可見的。第一，利用各種場合明確表示國家主權不可退讓，寸島寸海絕不丟失。第二，表明不懼戰，以不懼戰來止戰。第三，北京不輕視法律戰，主動對國際社會表明擁有南海諸島的國際法律根據。第四，亦對域外國家做外交工作，爭取更多的支持減少對手。第五，加快島礁建設。

顯然，中國南海兵棋之策是謀取「實地」，固守現有島礁而不退縮就是勝利。美「取勢」而壓縮中方「實地」，中方則相信固守「實地」才能支撐「大勢」。相信，南海的棋局將會持續。中美之間存在共同利益，依然會維持鬥而不破的格局。中國相信南海在自家門口，時間在自己一邊，最終美方只能接受中國島礁建設的既成事實。