投資未來迫在眉睫 財爺勿再當守財奴

<轉載自2017年2月23日 明報 社評>

財政司長陳茂波發表本屆政府最後一份財政預算案，財政盈餘金額再度成為焦點。受惠於賣地收入，本財政年度盈餘預計高達928億元，是9年來最高，財政儲備累計將達到9357億元。新一份預算案提出了合共351億元的一次過紓緩措施，又從盈餘中撥出610億元，推動安老、體育康樂和創新科技發展的前瞻工作，表面上算是較好地運用了本財政年度的巨額盈餘，然而總體理財哲學仍嫌保守，未有更好地善用龐大財政儲備投資未來。香港社會積弊叢生，急需調撥資源對症下藥，無論下任財政司長由誰擔任，政府都必須改變過度保守的理財思維，不能再當守財奴。

安老需求殷切 300億恐未夠

陳茂波上月接替曾俊華出任財政司長，今次是他首度在立法會發表財政預算案。觀乎內容細節，陳茂波的理財思維，跟曾俊華雖有不同，惟未算耳目一新。陳茂波提出的一次過紓緩措施，主要以支援中產為主，特別是偏低層的中產人士，未有公屋租金寬減，也未有向所謂N無人士「派糖」，論涉資總額亦不及上一份預算案。不過新預算案預留300億元，加強安老和殘疾人士康復服務，又分別預留200億及100億元，推動康體設施建設及創科發展，總算是一個放眼社會未來的投資，較諸把數百億元財政盈餘撥入「未來基金」等不加運用為佳。曾俊華2015年設立未來基金，目標是讓政府在經濟急劇或長期下滑時，可以動用基金，推行逆周期措施刺激經濟，然而其本質仍是財政儲備。積穀防饑合情合理，不過當財政儲備已高達9357億元時，政府實在不應一味將盈餘放入錢罌。

還富於民方法林林總總，「派糖」無疑較易贏得掌聲，可是對現今香港社會來說，投資未來的需要更為迫切。以安老服務為例，本港人口急速老化，可是安老、護老院舍卻嚴重不足，質素良莠不齊，護理人才亦缺乏。社會大眾都不希望再見到「劍橋護老院虐老」一類事件重演，政府有必要「追落後」，調撥更多資源改善院舍照顧服務質素、增加院舍宿位等，投入300億元是否足夠，其實還是一大疑問。當然，政府有需要考慮長遠的財政可持續能力，不宜隨便大幅增加經常開支，但是在加強安老醫療教育等方面，政府確有必要更加慷慨。「安老服務計劃方案」將於今年稍後時間公布，政府屆時須拿出具體建議，交代如何善用預算案預留的300億元。

陳茂波在預算案中提出，公共財政政策要「穩中求進」，對何謂財政儲備合理水平（例如相當於多少個月的政府開支），未有定出硬指標，惟起碼不再一味強調「財政儲備愈多愈好」。不過，新一份預算案的理財哲學仍嫌保守。儘管預算案大體上算是將本年度的928億元財政盈餘，以派糖和投資社會的方式「還富於民」，但是原本已積存了的巨額財政儲備，基本上仍是分毫未動。

賣地波幅雖大 不應成為藉口

曾俊華出任財政司長9年，其中一項最為人詬病之處，是連年嚴重低估財政盈餘，以本年度928億元盈餘為例，就比原本預計的110億元，足足多出818億元。對於年年「估錯數」，其中一個常見的辯解，就是「土地和印花稅收入勝預期」。2009/10年度由「財赤恐達399億元」變成「盈餘138億」，曾俊華如是解畫；今次陳茂波就財政盈餘遠超預期的解釋也一樣。誠然，受樓市表現影響，過去10年政府賣地收入波幅極大，2008/09年度低至不足170億元，但本財年卻超過1170億元，然而值得注意的是，即使2008/09年度地價收入較預計大跌六成，惟當年財政狀况，仍由預先估計錄得49億元赤字，變成14億元盈餘；陳茂波亦以2015/16年度為例，提到賣地收入佔政府收入的比重，只為14%。賣地收入波幅大難預測，不應成為理財過度保守的藉口。

財金官員的責任，應該是盡量準確估算財政收支，根據社會需要和優次投放資源，務求用得其所；因為嚴重低估收入，放棄投放資源推動社會長遠發展，只是扼殺未來的「守財奴」。陳茂波在中期財政預測時，改變了賣地收入的評估方法，以過往10年賣地收入佔本地生產總值平均水平（即3.3%）作為依據，而非近年所沿用的30年平均數（即2.8%），理論上應能較準確預測相關收入。陳茂波稱「賺錢是本事，守業是學問，花錢是藝術」，說起來很容易，做起來卻很困難，無論誰人接任財政司長，下任政府都必須改變過度保守的理財思維。

Investment in HK's future

FINANCIAL SECRETARY Paul Chan has delivered the last budget of this administration, and attention has again been focused on the amount of the government's surplus. Thanks to its land auctions, the government's surplus in this fiscal year is expected to amount to $92.8 billion (the most in nine years), and its fiscal reserves will accumulate to $935.7 billion.

There are myriad ways of restoring wealth to the people. It is doubtless relatively easy to win applause by "handing out candies". However, society in Hong Kong needs more urgently to invest in its future. Take services for the elderly. The population of the SAR is rapidly ageing, but homes and care and attention homes for the elderly are severely lacking, they are a mixed bag quality-wise, and there is a shortage of qualified nurses and carers. None relishes seeing any happening like the maltreatment of old people in Cambridge Nursing Home. The government must of course take into account its long-term fiscal sustainability. It is inadvisable for it casually to increase its recurrent expenditures sharply. However, in such areas as services for the elderly, health care and education, it should certainly spend money more generously to improve its services.

In delivering the budget, Chan said the government's fiscal policy should be "sound and progressive". However, he has set no rigid target vis-à-vis what is called a reasonable level of fiscal reserves. (For example, he has not mentioned it should be equivalent the amount of money the government spends in how many months.) He at least has not solely stressed "the more fiscal reserves, the better". Nevertheless, the philosophy of managing money expressed in the budget is on the conservative side.

One of the things for which John Tsang (who was for nine years Financial Secretary) is most severely criticised is that he badly underestimated the government's fiscal surplus year after year. Take this year's, which is $92.8 billion, a full $81.8 billion more than what it was expected to be ($11 billion). A common defence for such year-after-year misestimation is that "proceeds from land sales and stamp duty are better than expected". True, over the past decade, because of the way the property market has performed, the government's proceeds from land sales have fluctuated extremely widely. In 2008-09, they were very low — less than $17 billion. However, they exceeded $117 billion this fiscal year. It is noteworthy that, in 2008-09, though its proceeds from land sales were 60% less than expected, the government, which had expected to be $4.9 billion in the red, was actually $1.4 billion in the black. Taking what happened in 2015-16 as an example, Chan mentioned proceeds from land sales accounted only for 14% of the government's revenue then. That proceeds from land sales fluctuate widely and therefore are hard to predict does not justify excessively conservative money management.

It should rest with financial and monetary officials to estimate the government's revenue and expenditure as accurately as possible and allocate resources in the light of society's needs and priorities. They ought to do their utmost to make sure that public money is well spent, for he who badly underestimates the government's revenue and gives up devoting resources to fostering long-term social development is just a miser that strangles the territory's future. Chan has said, "Making money is a kind of skill, sustaining business is a branch of knowledge, and spending money is a matter of art." That is easier said than done. No matter who may take over as Financial Secretary, the next administration must dump excessively conservative ideas of money management.

投資未來迫在眉睫 財爺勿再當守財奴

財政司長陳茂波發表本屆政府最後一份財政預算案，財政盈餘金額再度成為焦點。受惠於賣地收入，本財政年度盈餘預計高達928億元，是9年來最高，財政儲備累計將達到9357億元。

還富於民方法林林總總，「派糖」無疑較易贏得掌聲，可是對現今香港社會來說，投資未來的需要更為迫切。以安老服務為例，本港人口急速老化，可是安老、護老院舍卻嚴重不足，質素良莠不齊，護理人才亦缺乏。社會大眾都不希望再見到「劍橋護老院虐老」一類事件重演。當然，政府有需要考慮長遠的財政可持續能力，不宜隨便大幅增加經常開支，但是在加強安老醫療教育等方面，政府確有必要更加慷慨。

陳茂波在預算案中提出，公共財政政策要「穩中求進」，對何謂財政儲備合理水平（例如相當於多少個月的政府開支），未有定出硬指標，惟起碼不再一味強調「財政儲備愈多愈好」。不過，新一份預算案的理財哲學仍嫌保守。

曾俊華出任財政司長9年，其中一項最為人詬病之處，是連年嚴重低估財政盈餘，以本年度928億元盈餘為例，就比原本預計的110億元，足足多出818億元。對於年年「估錯數」，其中一個常見的辯解，就是「土地和印花稅收入勝預期」。誠然，受樓市表現影響，過去10年政府賣地收入波幅極大，2008/09年度低至不足170億元，但本財年卻超過1170億元，然而值得注意的是，即使2008/09年度地價收入較預計大跌六成，惟當年財政狀况，仍由預先估計錄得49億元赤字，變成14億元盈餘；陳茂波亦以2015/16年度為例，提到賣地收入佔政府收入的比重，只為14%。賣地收入波幅大難預測，不應成為理財過度保守的藉口。

財金官員的責任，應該是盡量準確估算財政收支，根據社會需要和優次投放資源，務求用得其所；因為嚴重低估收入，放棄投放資源推動社會長遠發展，只是扼殺未來的「守財奴」。陳茂波稱「賺錢是本事，守業是學問，花錢是藝術」，說起來很容易，做起來卻很困難，無論誰人接任財政司長，下任政府都必須改變過度保守的理財思維。