俄軍攻烏戰局難測 華府回應陷入兩難

<轉載自2022年2月25日 明報 社評>

烏克蘭危機急轉直下，俄羅斯展開「特別軍事行動」，烏東起烽煙，首都基輔等地軍事設施及機場捱炸。西方斥俄國發動全面戰爭，俄羅斯總統普京則稱這是支援烏東分離政權抗敵，目標是令烏克蘭非軍事化而非佔領。烏克蘭近廿年一直是美俄角力場，自2014年親西方陣營街頭革命上台，烏克蘭全面靠攏歐美，從未放棄尋求加入北約，俄國認為家門受威脅，美方則指普京要在前蘇聯地區重建勢力範圍，白宮克宮互不相讓，演變成今天局面。烏克蘭之於美國，不過是一隻制俄棋子，之於俄羅斯卻是核心利益安全問題。俄烏兵力懸殊，普京兵行險着，球已落到美國一方，華府不想軍事介入，但如無強力行動，其他依靠美國保護傘的地區，難免擔心美國是否靠得住。

近23年歐洲最大型戰爭 大國博弈烏國變真戰場

俄軍攻擊烏克蘭，乃是1999年北約攻擊南斯拉夫之後，歐洲最大規模的主權國軍事衝突。若不計橫跨歐亞的俄羅斯，烏克蘭是歐洲領土最大的國家，既是東歐重要「糧倉」，也是歐洲天然氣輸送管道所經之地，俄烏戰事震撼環球股市，油價急升破百美元，事態發展充滿懸念，既要視乎俄方目的，亦看西方反應。烏克蘭是聯合國成員國，一個主權國攻擊另一個主權國，有違聯合國憲章，無論有何理由，必惹責難。普京今次出兵，牽動美俄角力以至國際格局，不論結局為何，歐洲地緣政治形勢，從此不再一樣。

任何戰爭必有遠因近因。從西方及基輔政府視角，普京為求重建前蘇聯帝國，2014年吞併克里米亞支持烏東兩個分離政權，不過是第一步，去年11月俄軍開始集結重兵，目標就是找藉口發動全面戰爭，吞併整個烏克蘭。當然，俄方視角跟西方很不同。俄方認為美國背信，在蘇聯解體後持續推動北約東擴，又在格魯吉亞及烏克蘭合共發動三場顏色革命，扶植親美政權抗俄。去年初北約在東南歐舉行10多年來最大軍演，劍指黑海；入夏後美國又決定，年底重啟冷戰時代駐紮德國的第56炮兵司令部，俄方視之為美國重新在歐洲部署中程導彈前奏。普京要求美方白紙黑字作出安全承諾，包括不讓烏克蘭入北約，卻遭華府拒絕，基輔政府軍又持續進逼烏東親俄政權，所以俄軍要介入。

俄烏歷史恩仇交織，敵對陣營對戰事爆發各有言辭。若從大國博弈的高度看，現實是蘇聯解體後，美俄一直都在東歐及前蘇聯地區爭逐勢力範圍，美方從未視俄羅斯為「自己人」，作為冷戰贏家步步進逼，俄方勢弱長期捱打。北約東擴及空襲南斯拉夫，全盤瓦解俄羅斯在東歐的影響力，國際強權政治得勢不饒人，華府東拓勢力當然不會止於前蘇聯邊界，對俄羅斯而言，烏克蘭與白俄是紅線所在，沒有這兩國作為屏障，俄國西境中門大開，難有國家安全可言。

10多年前克宮曾推動組建所謂「俄烏白俄關稅聯盟」，2014年烏克蘭反俄革命令計劃毁於一旦。當年俄軍吞併克里米亞，放眼的是保持黑海軍事勢力；扶植烏東親俄政權，則為日後軍事介入扭轉局面埋下伏筆。烏東分離政權與基輔政府雖簽署了明斯克協議，惟兩軍從無恪守停火。2008年，俄國以阻止格魯吉亞軍攻打親俄分離地區南奧塞梯為由，出兵格國，這次普京先承認烏東頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克為獨立國，旋即應兩地親俄政權要求，出兵烏克蘭，基本是同一套路。當年格魯吉亞戰事持續約一周，俄軍勢如破竹，一度逼近格國首都，格國唯有變相接受南奧塞梯「自成一國」，當時的親美政權亦因戰敗倒台。今回戰場改為烏克蘭，戰局走向言之尚早。

解鈴還須繫鈴人 美俄要尋求妥協

普京聲稱今次軍事行動，目的是令烏克蘭非軍事化，無意佔領。戰場爾虞我詐，普京之言虛實莫辨。俄軍首日行動，重點是轟炸烏克蘭主要軍事設施和機場等，手法令人憶起1999年北約空襲南斯拉夫設施、重挫南軍戰力，為日後科索沃分離獨立鋪路，不一定大規模出動地面部隊，惟美軍入侵伊拉克的經驗亦說明，猛烈空襲可以是大型地面戰以至軍事佔領的前奏。

普京下着難測，現在問題是美國及西方如何回應。歐美多國抨擊俄軍侵烏，矢言嚴厲制裁，標誌俄歐合作的北溪二油氣管道項目，亦成制裁對象，惟俄方既然兵行險着，西方制裁肯定亦在克宮計算之內。歐洲依賴俄國供氣，非一時三刻可改，寒冬未過，倘若歐洲去盡制裁，俄方也有反制本錢。當然，美國無此憂慮，惟當下美國通脹嚴重，俄國在烏克蘭的軍事行動規模及戰略打擊目標，絕對可以令油價糧價急漲，普京大有可能認為，現在正是出兵最佳時機。烏克蘭現非北約一員，華府似乎亦不傾向出兵當地，冒險跟俄軍大打一仗，倘若制裁俄國力度隔靴搔癢、任由俄軍重挫基輔政府，其他依靠美國保護的小國或地區，難免心下一涼，這對冷戰後的美利堅治世（Pax Americana）秩序，將帶來一定衝擊。

烏克蘭成為美俄角力場，基輔與烏東所打的不過是代理人戰爭。烏克蘭兵凶戰危，解鈴還須繫鈴人，美俄必須對話，尋求妥協，俄國應停止軍事行動撤軍，美方亦應以白紙黑字方式，回應俄方國家安全關切。歐洲不少人主張以所謂「芬蘭模式」化解僵局，讓烏克蘭成為西方與俄國之間的緩衝中立國，這是一條出路，問題在於白宮克宮是否有此政治意願。

Uncertain Trajectories of Russia Invading Ukraine

The crisis in Ukraine has taken a sharp turn for the worse, as Russia has launched a ''special military operation''. Fire and smoke are rising in Eastern Ukraine, and military facilities and airports in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and other places have been under heavy shelling. The West has condemned Russia for instigating a full-blown war, while Russian president Vladimir Putin has claimed that he is simply supporting the separatist ''regimes'' in Eastern Ukraine against their enemies, and his aim is to demilitarise Ukraine rather than to occupy it.

If we take Russia, which straddles Europe and Asia, out of the equation, Ukraine is the country with the largest territory in Europe. Not only is it an important ''breadbasket'' of Eastern Europe, but it is also where the natural gas pipelines for Europe pass through. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has come as a shock to the global stock market, as oil prices soared above US$100. Many uncertainties surround how the situation will unfold, for it depends not only on Russia's agenda, but also on the West's reaction. Ukraine is a member of the United Nations (UN). Whatever the reason, one sovereign state's attack on another sovereign state violates the UN Charter and will be rightly condemned. After Vladimir Putin's dispatch of troops this time, whatever the final outcome might be, the geopolitical situation in Europe will never be the same.

Any war must have its distant and immediate causes. From the perspective of the West and the Kyiv government, the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the recognition of two separatist ''regimes'' in Eastern Ukraine was only Vladimir Putin's first step to rebuild the former Soviet Union. In November last year, a heavy presence of Russian military began to gather, aiming to look for an excuse to launch an all-out war and annex the entire Ukraine.

More than ten years ago, the Kremlin once promoted the formation of a so-called ''Russia-Ukraine-Belarus Customs Union''. The 2014 anti-Russia revolution in Ukraine scuppered the plan. Back then, when the Russian army annexed Crimea, the focus was to maintain military power in the Black Sea, while fostering pro-Russian ''regimes'' in Eastern Ukraine paved the way for future military intervention to overturn the situation. Although the separatist ''regimes'' in Eastern Ukraine and the Kyiv government signed the Minsk Agreement, the armies from the two sides have never abided by the ceasefire agreement. In 2008, Russia sent troops to Georgia on the pretext of preventing the Georgian army from attacking the pro-Russian separatist region of South Ossetia. This time around, Putin first recognised Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine as independent states. He then immediately responded to the demands of the pro-Russian regimes in the two regions by sending troops to Ukraine, employing basically the same modus operandi. The war in Georgia back then lasted for about a week. The Russian army advanced like a hot knife cutting through butter, even approaching the capital of Georgia at one point. Georgia had no choice but to accept South Ossetia as an ''independent country'', and the then pro-US regime also collapsed because of the military defeat.

The fact that Europe relies on Russia for gas supply cannot be changed overnight. The cold winter has not yet passed. If Europe imposes the toughest sanctions on Russia, Russia will also be able to impose countermeasures. It is very likely that Putin believes that now is the best time to send troops.

Putin has claimed that the purpose of the military operation this time is to demilitarise Ukraine and that he has no intention of occupying it. Given the fact that the battlefield is a place for the cunning, it is difficult to know whether Putin truly meant what he said. Many European countries and the US have condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine and have vowed to impose severe sanctions. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, a hallmark of Russian-European cooperation, has also become a target of sanctions. However, as Russia has taken the gamble in battle, the West's sanctions must have also been part of the Kremlin's calculations.

俄軍攻烏戰局難測 華府回應陷入兩難

烏克蘭危機急轉直下，俄羅斯展開「特別軍事行動」，烏東起烽煙，首都基輔等地軍事設施及機場捱炸。西方斥俄國發動全面戰爭，俄羅斯總統普京則稱這是支援烏東分離政權抗敵，目標是令烏克蘭非軍事化而非佔領。

若不計橫跨歐亞的俄羅斯，烏克蘭是歐洲領土最大的國家，既是東歐重要「糧倉」，也是歐洲天然氣輸送管道所經之地，俄烏戰事震撼環球股市，油價急升破百美元，事態發展充滿懸念，既要視乎俄方目的，亦看西方反應。烏克蘭是聯合國成員國，一個主權國攻擊另一個主權國，有違聯合國憲章，無論有何理由，必惹責難。普京今次出兵，不論結局為何，歐洲地緣政治形勢，從此不再一樣。

任何戰爭必有遠因近因。從西方及基輔政府視角，普京為求重建前蘇聯帝國，2014年吞併克里米亞支持烏東兩個分離政權，不過是第一步，去年11月俄軍開始集結重兵，目標就是找藉口發動全面戰爭，吞併整個烏克蘭。

10多年前克宮曾推動組建所謂「俄烏白俄關稅聯盟」，2014年烏克蘭反俄革命令計劃毁於一旦。當年俄軍吞併克里米亞，放眼的是保持黑海軍事勢力；扶植烏東親俄政權，則為日後軍事介入扭轉局面埋下伏筆。烏東分離政權與基輔政府雖簽署了明斯克協議，惟兩軍從無恪守停火。2008年，俄國以阻止格魯吉亞軍攻打親俄分離地區南奧塞梯為由，出兵格國，這次普京先承認烏東頓涅茨克和盧甘斯克為獨立國，旋即應兩地親俄政權要求，出兵烏克蘭，基本是同一套路。當年格魯吉亞戰事持續約一周，俄軍勢如破竹，一度逼近格國首都，格國唯有變相接受南奧塞梯「自成一國」，當時的親美政權亦因戰敗倒台。

歐洲依賴俄國供氣，非一時三刻可改，寒冬未過，倘若歐洲去盡制裁，俄方也有反制本錢。普京大有可能認為，現在正是出兵最佳時機。

普京聲稱今次軍事行動，目的是令烏克蘭非軍事化，無意佔領。戰場爾虞我詐，普京之言虛實莫辨。歐美多國抨擊俄軍侵烏，矢言嚴厲制裁，標誌俄歐合作的北溪二油氣管道項目，亦成制裁對象，惟俄方既然兵行險着，西方制裁肯定亦在克宮計算之內。