近期，國際間較重要的外交活動，都在亞洲，例如美國總統奧巴馬訪問印度和印尼、英國首相卡梅倫率領歷來最大規模、位階最高的代表團訪華，接下來是先後在韓國、日本舉行的G20峰會和亞太經合會議（APEC）。這些外交活動，表面上互不相干，其實都與美國和中國的博弈有關。美國竭力構築圍堵中國的陣營，中國面對一場「圍堵與反圍堵」、關乎國家生存空間、國家安全的尖銳鬥爭。
卡梅倫率團訪華大做生意 近期中美外交戰各別苗頭
卡梅倫的訪華主軸，從代表團成員包括財政、能源、教育和商業4名內閣大臣和約50名工商界資深領袖，說明英國要與中國大做生意。卡梅倫訪華前發表的書面講話，表示「從貿易到低碳發展、再到文化教育計劃，我們將提出40項具體協議」，他期望此行與中國簽署數十億美元新合同，並期望到2015年，雙邊貿易額能夠翻一番，達到1000億美元。卡梅倫以「掘金」為目的，相信會滿載而歸。
中國面對美國咄咄逼人的圍堵、人民幣升值壓力、擔心G20峰會成為標靶之際，近期與歐洲諸國交往頻繁，大有拉攏歐洲以打破美國圍堵之勢。退一步而言，即使未能獲得歐洲助拳，只要歐洲在一些議題保持中立，不與美國連成一線，中國所受壓力也會大減。
奧巴馬兩年前上台，宣布美國重返亞洲，今年以來，美國在亞洲佈陣圍堵中國，出招頻頻。美國國務卿希拉里挑撥、離間東盟一些國家與中國的關係；圍堵和牽制中國的最重要棋子──印度，由小布殊政府後期已經不斷拉攏，包括與印度開展核合作計劃、解除高科技禁運、出售先進戰機等武器，目的是要使印度急速壯大，以便在美國的亞洲戰略部署中扮演重要角色。
近日，奧巴馬訪問印度，大送高帽，說印度是已經可與美國「肩比肩的大國」，又投其所好，表示願意協助印度爭取成為聯合國常任理事國云云。奧巴馬對印度的承諾，會否口惠而實不至，且待下回分解，但是美國借助印度對付中國的目的，昭然若揭。近日，希拉里在澳洲大談所謂中國應成為一個「負責任的國家」、並「履行對亞洲的責任」的論調，對中國叫陣之意，甚為明顯。
中國已經超越日本，成為全球第二大經濟體，國際影響力大增，特別在亞洲事務，中國的角色更有成為主導之勢，美國重返亞洲，就是要重新確立其全球唯一霸權的地位。中國並無與美國爭霸之意，以中國現有國力，也不可能與美國抗衡，但是美國仍然竭力壓縮中國的生存空間。
中國見招拆招，使出遠交近攻策略，與東南亞國家敦睦友誼以外，近月來，大做歐洲國家的工作。上月初，總理溫家寶開展對希臘、比利時、意大利和土耳其的官式訪問，其間還臨時改變行程，到德國與默克爾總理會晤。近日，國家主席胡錦濤訪問法國和葡萄牙，這些外交活動，被認為在聯歐制美。
中國在這次反圍堵鬥爭，發揮龐大外匯儲備的功能，例如溫家寶在希臘，公開表示會購買希臘國債，對於債台高築的歐洲國家，甚為受落；胡錦濤訪問法國，帶去購買102架空中巴士等大禮，共簽訂價值200多億美元的合同，對於在掙扎復蘇的法國經濟是及時雨。中國近年與外國交往，貿易先行，而且是中國慷慨採購，許多時候被譏為「銀彈外交」。不過，外交是國力的延伸，中國有這樣的經濟實力，只要用得恰當，總比購買持續貶值、長遠而言會被人唾棄的美國國債好。
中國醒悟大幅減少購美債 特區政府對美元仍執迷不悟
中國以購買美債為主的外匯儲備策略，今年以來有調整迹象。據最新一期美國權威財經雜誌《巴倫周刋》報道，過去每年中國購入多達1000億美元美債，今年上半年則只買了230億美元國庫券和其他美債，反而投資了310億美元購買各地的鐵、石油和銅等硬資產。報道引述專家預計，今年全年中國在這兩大類資產的投資，同樣約為550億美元之譜。
美元是日薄西山的貨幣，以美國的經濟現况，若非美國，則類似美元這種貨幣，早應該消失了；不過，縱使美元以全球主要儲備貨幣的角色，得以苟延殘喘，長遠而言，其弱勢不可能扭轉。中國能夠拋開唯美元、美債才可儲備的迷思，買一些既可追求更高回報、又可保障資源供應不虞匱乏的硬資產，是一個值得肯定的轉變。在與美國博弈中，儲備未嘗不是一張有力的牌，就看中國如何合理、適當運用而已。在這個問題上，特區政府違逆經濟大勢，對於27年前（1983年）因為特殊情况而實施的聯繫匯率，仍然認為神聖不可侵犯，死抱美元不放，特區政府的執迷不悟與中央政府幡然醒覺，是一個強烈對比。
美國與中國現在的博弈形態，有人形容這種局面為「新冷戰」，特別是美國在亞洲所佈下陣勢，處處都看到其超強軍事力量的影子，中國的生存空間確實甚為凶險。以美國和中國現今國力對比，中國只能臨淵履薄，有理有節地對應，爭取國家的生存和安全得到更大保證。現在拉攏歐洲是必要的策略運用，但是西歐英國與美國有着強固的軍事同盟關係，歐洲與中國的價值觀，有根本性分歧，雙邊關係僅屬一時一地？抑或可以存之久遠？看來，國際生態之於中國，難言有利，實際可以艱困視之。
Containment of China
ASIA has just seen and will soon see
all the important diplomatic activities. For example, US President Barak Obama
has visited India and Indonesia. British Prime Minister David Cameron is now in
China with the biggest and highest-ranking delegation ever. A G20 summit takes
place soon in South Korea, and an APEC conference, in Japan. On the face of it,
these diplomatic activities are not interrelated. In fact, they all have much
to do with Sino-US trials of strength. The US has been trying its best to form
a camp to contain China. The nation is now faced with a bitter
"anti-containment battle" that would have much to do with its
Lebensraum and security.
Having surpassed Japan to become the
second largest economy in the world, China now exerts much greater influence.
It even tends to play a dominant role in Asian affairs. The US is determined to
return to Asia. It aims at re-establishing its status as the world's sole
overlord. Though China has no intention to contend with it for hegemony, the US
is doing everything it can to reduce its Lebensraum.
China would take such
countermeasures as the situation calls for. It has promoted its friendly
relations with Southeast Asian countries and, over the past few months, worked
on European countries too. Early last month, Premier Wen Jiabao officially
visited Greece, Belgium, Italy and Turkey. He even changed his schedule at the
eleventh hour to go to Germany to meet Angela Merkel, its Chancellor. President
Hu Jintao has recently visited France and Portugal. Many believe such
diplomatic activities are aimed at allying China with Europe against the US.
China's huge foreign exchange
reserves have proved useful in its anti-containment battle. For example, Wen
Jiabao declared in Greece China would buy Greek government bonds. Such offers
are certainly well received by European countries that are deep in debt. Hu
Jintao has brought the French a big present. China has ordered 102 Airbuses and
signed contracts worth over US$20 billion totally. Those contracts are timely
help to the struggling French economy. Since a few years ago China has put
trade first in dealing with other countries and often made generous
procurement, so much so that it is often sneered at for practising "money
diplomacy". However, China is rich. It is better to use its money properly
than to buy US Treasuries, which keep falling in value and will eventually be
cast aside.
The US dollar has been on the wane.
The economic situation in the US has been such that, were it not a major
reserve currency in the world, the US dollar would have disappeared a long time
ago. Though it will survive by virtue of this special status, it will inexorably
weaken. The central government has disabused itself of the myth that reserves
must consist of US dollar assets and acquired hard assets that yield high
returns and guarantee supplies of resources. This change is commendable.
However, contrary to the mega economic trend, the SAR government regards as
sacrosanct the linked exchange rate system (which Hong Kong adopted in very
special circumstances twenty-seven years ago (in 1983)) and holds on the US
dollar like grim death. Its obtuseness contrasts sharply with the central
government's sudden waking up.
Some
call the Sino-US trials of strength a new cold war. All the dispositions the US
has made in Asia smell of its super military capabilities. China's Lebensraum
is indeed in great danger. However, China's strength relative to the US' is
such that it must tread very cautiously. It must act on just grounds and with
restrain in ensuring its security and survival. It is now strategically
necessary for China to be friends with European countries. However, the UK and
other West European countries are the US' staunch military allies and their
values are fundamentally different from China's. Will China's good relations
with them prove lasting or short-lived? Evidently, the world situation is
hardly favourable to China. It may in fact be seen as difficult.
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