三鹿毒奶受害人組織——「結石寶寶之家」發起人趙連海，被判重囚兩年半，此案較諸劉曉波被以言入罪，性質更為惡劣。因為劉曉波還可能涉及衝擊中共的統治地位，趙連海是毒奶品受害者，聯同其他受害家長爭取權益，動機單純，不涉政治。現在的判決，把趙連海塑造成為當局以龐大國家專政機器，欺壓人民追究政府失政的個案，顯示內地以維穩之名遏制人民，變本加厲，內地官民矛盾將更趨尖銳，社會所潛藏巨大不穩定因素，使中國的發展前景蒙上一抹厚厚陰影。
趙連海爭權益不涉衝擊政權 內地藉維穩之名欺壓良民
趙連海被控告「尋釁滋事」罪名，根據內地《刑法》例，「尋釁滋事」是指在公共場所無事生非、起哄鬧事、毆打傷害無辜、肆意挑釁、毁壞財物、破壞公共秩序的行為。由此看來，「尋釁滋事」所指，應該是一些無厘頭「搞搞震」所為。趙連海的案情分兩部分：首先，關於毒奶品事件，無論他就此組織受害家長爭權益，在街頭接受記者訪問，導致途人圍觀，本質上都是受害者爭取權益的行動，控之以「尋釁滋事」，極其牽強；其次，他協助一名安徽上訪、在看守所被強姦的女子維權，此乃確有其事，並非無事生事，與「尋釁滋事」搭不上邊。
所以當局檢控趙連海，實質是無中生有，羅織罪名，正是欲加之罪，何患無辭，目的只是要制止趙連海繼續為「結石寶寶」爭取終身免費檢查治療等權益，而非他真箇有什麼犯罪行為。以趙案的經過和北京大興區人民法院的刑事判決書，若原原本本交由人民公評，相信不少人民對趙案的處理和判決，會不敢苟同和質疑，不過，內地當局有膽量放開管束，讓人民公開評論此案嗎？
趙連海被判刑，肯定是冤案。內地當局以無厘頭罪名控告趙連海，相信要傳達殺雞儆猴信息，威嚇其他毒奶品受害家長，若繼續追究下去，就會遭到懲處。中共的龐大強橫專政機器，老百姓在它面前，當然極度渺小，也絕無抗衡之力，不過縱使被趙連海的遭遇嚇怕，善良的受害家長變得噤若寒蟬，但是他們會心服嗎？人民對專政機器的胡作非為，公道自在人心，又怎會真心接受？
趙連海於去年11月上旬被拘留，今年3月30日審訊，歷時7個多月才判決，其間有些什麼考慮，外界無從得知，不過，有分析認為，正值劉曉波獲頒諾貝爾和平獎，內地全面封殺此事的影響，對社會的控制全面收緊，此際重判趙連海，不但可以結案，還向外界傳遞所謂「司法主權」的信息。若這個分析符合事實，則趙連海就成為政治考慮的犧牲品。
以往，內地審訊或判決具爭議案件，都會顧及國際觀瞻，或避開領導人的外事活動，以減輕壓力，不過，這次判處趙連海，內地好像已經不再這樣考慮。昨日英國首相卡梅倫正在北京訪問，國家主席胡錦濤即將前赴韓國、日本，分別出席G20峰會和亞太經合會議，以過去的行事規律，絕不會在此際重判趙連海，以免中國人權問題被突顯出來。
從趙連海的遭遇，說明內地當局不再顧忌。中國經濟亮麗，外匯儲備豐厚，全球經濟有求於中國，若因此使內地當局信心爆棚而我行我素，則經濟發展不但未能使中國人享受更多、更大的自由，反而成為高壓統治的轉化劑，則經濟成果對人民福祉帶來什麼意義？實在十分悲凉。
內地當局對付趙連海，表面上顯得自信滿滿，骨子裏卻是虛怯的表現，因為此事反映當局對人民的恐懼。今年9月，北京清華大學社會學系社會發展研究課題組發表《走向社會重建之路》的報告，提出「社會恐懼症」的概念，認為當局與民衆對於獨立於權力和市場的主體社會，都心存恐懼，致使主體社會一直未能建立起來，而掌握權力的當局，對社會的恐懼表現為限制和打壓。
從劉曉波、調查四川地震豆腐渣工程的譚作人，到為自己爭權益的趙連海，這3件事性質不同，內地當局對於劉曉波的《零八憲章》，解讀為挑戰中共的執政地位，當然是「罪大惡極，絕不寬貸」；但是譚作人和趙連海所爭取的，只要基本公義和權益，並不涉及中共的底線——政權的根本，現在3人都被判以重刑，特別是趙連海所爭取的涉及政府部門失職，導致毒奶品危害嬰孩，如此背景單純，動機正當明確的維權行動，卻換來兩年半牢獄之災，顯示龐大的國家專政機器在對付手無寸鐵的一介草民。
港區人大代表應聯合行動 要求中央還趙連海自由公道
趙連海案使人十分不安，因為反映內地當局對人民的恐懼，已經到了杯弓蛇影的地步，中共與人民的矛盾更趨尖銳。以內地的嚴格和嚴密管制，一般民衆對趙連海的事和遭到重囚，知者甚少，也難以寄望內地建制中人敢於犯顏極諫，在960萬平方公里的中華大地，只有香港這一小片土地，基於一國兩制的特殊安排，讓我們享有自由討論和批評的空間。我們希望港區人大代表為了人民福祉、國家的正常發展，聯合起來要求中央關注趙案，還趙連海的自由和公道，使莊嚴的中國憲法不致淪為大家訕笑的文件。
Containment of China
ASIA has just seen and will soon see
all the important diplomatic activities. For example, US President Barak Obama
has visited India and Indonesia. British Prime Minister David Cameron is now in
China with the biggest and highest-ranking delegation ever. A G20 summit takes
place soon in South Korea, and an APEC conference, in Japan. On the face of it,
these diplomatic activities are not interrelated. In fact, they all have much
to do with Sino-US trials of strength. The US has been trying its best to form a
camp to contain China. The nation is now faced with a bitter
"anti-containment battle" that would have much to do with its
Lebensraum and security.
Having surpassed Japan to become the
second largest economy in the world, China now exerts much greater influence.
It even tends to play a dominant role in Asian affairs. The US is determined to
return to Asia. It aims at re-establishing its status as the world's sole
overlord. Though China has no intention to contend with it for hegemony, the US
is doing everything it can to reduce its Lebensraum.
China would take such
countermeasures as the situation calls for. It has promoted its friendly
relations with Southeast Asian countries and, over the past few months, worked
on European countries too. Early last month, Premier Wen Jiabao officially
visited Greece, Belgium, Italy and Turkey. He even changed his schedule at the
eleventh hour to go to Germany to meet Angela Merkel, its Chancellor. President
Hu Jintao has recently visited France and Portugal. Many believe such
diplomatic activities are aimed at allying China with Europe against the US.
China's huge foreign exchange
reserves have proved useful in its anti-containment battle. For example, Wen
Jiabao declared in Greece China would buy Greek government bonds. Such offers
are certainly well received by European countries that are deep in debt. Hu
Jintao has brought the French a big present. China has ordered 102 Airbuses and
signed contracts worth over US$20 billion totally. Those contracts are timely
help to the struggling French economy. Since a few years ago China has put
trade first in dealing with other countries and often made generous
procurement, so much so that it is often sneered at for practising "money
diplomacy". However, China is rich. It is better to use its money properly
than to buy US Treasuries, which keep falling in value and will eventually be
cast aside.
The US dollar has been on the wane.
The economic situation in the US has been such that, were it not a major
reserve currency in the world, the US dollar would have disappeared a long time
ago. Though it will survive by virtue of this special status, it will
inexorably weaken. The central government has disabused itself of the myth that
reserves must consist of US dollar assets and acquired hard assets that yield
high returns and guarantee supplies of resources. This change is commendable.
However, contrary to the mega economic trend, the SAR government regards as
sacrosanct the linked exchange rate system (which Hong Kong adopted in very special
circumstances twenty-seven years ago (in 1983)) and holds on the US dollar like
grim death. Its obtuseness contrasts sharply with the central government's
sudden waking up.
Some
call the Sino-US trials of strength a new cold war. All the dispositions the US
has made in Asia smell of its super military capabilities. China's Lebensraum
is indeed in great danger. However, China's strength relative to the US' is
such that it must tread very cautiously. It must act on just grounds and with
restrain in ensuring its security and survival. It is now strategically
necessary for China to be friends with European countries. However, the UK and
other West European countries are the US' staunch military allies and their
values are fundamentally different from China's. Will China's good relations
with them prove lasting or short-lived? Evidently, the world situation is
hardly favourable to China. It may in fact be seen as difficult.
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