<轉載自2025年4月7日 明報 社評>
台灣社會最近幾天接連面對兩大外部震盪,先是解放軍展開「海峽雷霆-2025A」演習,對「台獨」陣營作出迄今最具實戰指向的軍事震懾,既模擬能源封鎖,更釋出對民進黨作「斬首」打擊的戰略信號。緊接而來是美國總統特朗普向全球胡亂揮舞關稅大棒,對台課稅達32%,令島內一片嘩然。無論軍演還是關稅,其實都不是毫無預兆,台灣顯得措手不及,暴露了民進黨政府以至台灣社會對地緣政治變局與台灣經濟結構的認知盲點。
解放軍「海峽雷霆」震懾 預演封鎖台能源供應
上周二(4月1日)至周三,解放軍東部戰區海陸空與火箭軍等兵力展開聯合軍演。台灣對解放軍軍演早就不感陌生,自賴清德3月中將對岸列為「境外敵對勢力」,擺出全面對抗姿態,解放軍再出手反制只是時間問題。不過,這場軍演還是讓人感受到非一般的肅殺氣勢。它不僅是繼去年兩次「聯合利劍」演習後再度無預警開展,而且冠以新代號「海峽雷霆」。名稱之變折射手段之變,解放軍不僅演練圍台作戰,更模擬封鎖台灣海峽中部與南部海域。東部戰區表明,此舉意在控制能源通道與切斷台灣的補給要道。台灣99%天然氣依賴進口,兩大接收站就位於解放軍演習的火力覆蓋範圍之內。東部戰區還發放名為《降妖除魔》的視頻,當中出現台灣「總統府」附近的漢口街,隨即切入發射導彈畫面,台灣輿論從中嗅出「斬首」暗示。
2022年時任美國眾議院議長佩洛西訪台挑釁,觸發解放軍開展環台軍演,築起對台灣的包圍圈,兩岸之間曾經默契作為軍事分界的海峽中線不復存在。台灣軍方用輕描淡寫的語氣淡化軍事威脅,聲言解放軍「外強中乾」,但兩岸軍力差距日益擴大是不爭事實,口舌之爭無助於化解台灣面對的挑戰。和平統一是北京對台基本方針,「武統」屬最後選項,解放軍不斷提升軍事壓力,更大目的仍是防「獨」逼談。除了軍事震懾,北京還透過其他途徑壓縮台灣戰略空間。近年解放軍在台灣軍演,海警都同步行動,此次也不例外,多支海警艦艇編隊在台灣島周邊執法巡查,彰顯對台管轄權。
北京對台威懾策略的強化,與綠營操弄「抗中」政治息息相關。綠營近期變本加厲渲染「恐共氛圍」,接連以鼓吹「武統」為由驅逐3名「陸配」,又對接受央視訪問的一名中學教師窮追猛打。一系列政治操作,旨在為針對藍營立委的「大罷免」煽風點火。這種製造分化的民粹治理方式,令台灣社會氣氛持續繃緊,政治對立日趨嚴重,得益的是綠營的政治圖謀,犧牲的是台灣的社會穩定。諷刺的是,就在綠營無所不用其極把政治對手抹紅為「中共同路人」之時,其內部卻爆出「共諜案」,包括前政要游錫堃助理在內多人被拘押。
賴清德「抗中」最大本錢是依附美國,然而,特朗普上周四砸出的關稅重槌,卻讓台灣政經各界陷入恐慌,特朗普向全球徵收所謂的「對等關稅」,台灣面對的稅率達32%,僅比對岸少兩個百分點。出口佔台灣GDP比重六成,其中四分之一輸往美國,經濟學家推算,特朗普關稅將導致台灣對美出口萎縮63%,GDP收縮3.8個百分點。對台灣而言,關鍵問題是有什麼籌碼避免或減輕震盪?特朗普看中的台灣「價值」是晶片、國防開支與貿易逆差,為了迎合特朗普,賴清德先後提出「全球半導體民主供應鏈」倡議,以及把防務預算提升至佔GDP的3%,其閣員曾聲稱後者獲得華府肯定,如今卻被徹底打臉。
特朗普橫徵暴斂 綠營還在做鴕鳥
面對美國,綠營心甘情願做鴕鳥。全球對特朗普「解放日」屏息以待,台灣行政院長卓榮泰卻信誓旦旦叫「大家安心入睡」,聲言「已為民眾和產業做足準備」。一覺醒來發現台灣被課重稅,民進黨當局急忙召開應變會議,再隔一日才承認台灣工農業出口都面臨重大影響,宣布推出880億新台幣協助方案,並稱「非常抱歉,我們來晚了一天」。特朗普將複雜經貿關係簡化為似是而非的方程式,但有綠營立委竟如恍然大悟般為其解畫,稱台灣對美徵收高達64%關稅才會招來報復。自欺欺人到如此地步,實在令人難以置信。看清特朗普掩眼法後,賴清德顯得相當委屈,認為華府以貿易逆差為「對等關稅」計算基礎,無視台美近年貿易逆差主要來自於台灣產業配合特朗普第一任期的科技管制等政策,美國對台灣通訊產品有需求,卻成為課徵高關稅的原因,「讓我們感到不合理」。
正當台海硝煙瀰漫之際,台灣知名作家龍應台在《紐約時報》發表文章,以台灣計程車司機感嘆「今日烏克蘭、明日台灣」為開篇,拷問美國對台承諾的可靠性、兩岸對抗的代價,以及和平之路何在。這些提問不見得有多大新意,在台灣的極端政治氛圍裏,文章更招來綠營圍剿。然而,「海峽雷霆」與「對等關稅」用不同方式戳穿綠營所營造的政治敘事,卻讓龍應台的呼聲適逢其會。特朗普清晰展現美國利益至上的本質,令台灣內部「疑美論」驟然升溫;北京謀求和平統一目標不變,但也一再明示維護國家主權和領土完整的底線,沒有絲毫妥協空間。台灣不能寄生於華府的盤算,真正的命門在於如何處理兩岸關係。《紐約時報》處理龍應台文章,中英文版本用了不同標題,結合在一起倒是作出了有意義的警示:台灣的時間不多了(The clock is ticking for
Taiwan),(台灣)維持和平與自由的唯一途徑是與中國和解。
Double Shocks to Taiwan:
PLA Drills and US Tariffs
THE TAIWAN COMMUNITY has
been hit by double external shocks in recent days. First came the "Strait
Thunder-2025A" exercises by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), followed
immediately by reckless tariff bashing by US President Donald Trump against the
whole world, imposing a 32% tariff on Taiwan. Neither the drills nor the
tariffs were without warning. The fact that Taiwan was caught entirely off
guard has revealed the bias blind spots of the Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) government and even the Taiwan community regarding changes in geopolitics
and the island's economic structure.
Last Tuesday (1 April)
and Wednesday, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command launched joint military
exercises involving the army, navy, air and rocket forces. Not only were battle
drills for encircling Taiwan conducted, but blockades of the middle and
southern waters of the Taiwan Strait were also simulated, which the Command
said clearly were for the goal of controlling the energy corridor and cutting
off the key supply routes of Taiwan.
Taiwan imports 99% of
its natural gas, and the two receiving terminals lie exactly within the firing
range of the PLA drills. Furthermore, the Eastern Theatre Command released a
video titled "Subdue Demons and Vanquish Evils", which featured Hankou
Street near Taiwan's "Presidential Office", followed by missile
launching scenes. Taiwanese public opinion smelt a hint of
"decapitation" from it.
Peaceful reunification
remains Beijing's basic policy towards Taiwan, with "unifying by
force" as the last resort. The PLA's continuous escalation of military
pressure is still to prevent "Taiwan independence" and force the
island into talks. In playing the "anti-China" politics, the green
camp of Taiwan has employed the meanest of tricks and defamed political rivals
as "comrades of the Chinese Communist Party", leading to growing
political antagonism.
The trump card for
holding back against China comes from reliance on the US. However, Taiwan's
political and economic sectors were invariably thrown into panic after Trump
slapped "reciprocal tariffs" on the whole world last Thursday, with
Taiwan facing a tariff rate reaching 32%, only two percentage points lower than
that imposed on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. Exports account for 60% of
Taiwan's GDP, and one-fourth of Taiwan's exports are destined for the US.
Economists estimate that Trump's tariffs will lead to a 63% contraction in
Taiwan's exports to the US and a reduction of 3.8 percentage points in its GDP.
The green camp plays
ostrich in relation to the US. When the entire world was holding its breath for
the coming of Trump's "Liberation Day", Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai
vowed that "we can all have a good sleep" and claimed that the government
was "fully prepared for the sake of the people and industries". After
the island woke up to find that it was heavily taxed, the DPP authorities
hastily called a contingency meeting. Only on the next day did they admit that
Taiwan's industrial and agricultural exports would all be significantly
affected and announce the launch of an NT$88 billion assistance package.
In an article published
in the New York Times, renowned Taiwanese writer Lung Ying-tai starts with a
Taiwanese taxi driver's lament, "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow",
questioning the reliability of the US's commitments to Taiwan, the costs of cross-strait
confrontation and where the path to peace lies. Trump is the manifestation of
the US's self-serving nature. This has led to a sharp rise of America
scepticism in Taiwan.
Taiwan must not depend
on Washington's calculations; the key to its future lies in the way it handles
cross-strait relations. The combination of the English and Chinese titles of
Lung's article serves as a meaningful warning: The clock is ticking for Taiwan,
and the only way to maintain peace and freedom is through conciliation with
China.
軍演關稅雙重震盪 台灣沉溺煮蛙效應
台灣社會最近幾天接連面對兩大外部震盪,先是解放軍展開「海峽雷霆-2025A」演習,緊接而來是美國總統特朗普向全球胡亂揮舞關稅大棒,對台課稅達32%。無論軍演還是關稅,其實都不是毫無預兆,台灣顯得措手不及,暴露了民進黨政府以至台灣社會對地緣政治變局與台灣經濟結構的認知盲點。
上周二(4月1日)至周三,解放軍東部戰區海陸空與火箭軍等兵力展開聯合軍演,不僅演練圍台作戰,更模擬封鎖台灣海峽中部與南部海域。東部戰區表明,此舉意在控制能源通道與切斷台灣的補給要道。
台灣99%天然氣依賴進口,兩大接收站就位於解放軍演習的火力覆蓋範圍之內。東部戰區還發放名為《降妖除魔》的視頻,當中出現台灣「總統府」附近的漢口街,隨即切入發射導彈畫面,台灣輿論從中嗅出「斬首」暗示。
和平統一是北京對台基本方針,「武統」屬最後選項,解放軍不斷提升軍事壓力,更大目的仍是防「獨」逼談。台灣綠營操弄「抗中」政治,無所不用其極把政治對手抹紅為「中共同路人」,政治對立日趨嚴重。
「抗中」最大本錢是依附美國,然而,特朗普上周四砸出向全球徵收的「對等關稅」,卻讓台灣政經各界陷入恐慌,台灣面對的稅率達32%,僅比對岸少兩個百分點。出口佔台灣GDP比重六成,其中四分之一輸往美國,經濟學家推算,特朗普關稅將導致台灣對美出口萎縮63%,GDP收縮3.8個百分點。
面對美國,綠營心甘情願做鴕鳥。全球對特朗普「解放日」屏息以待,台灣行政院長卓榮泰卻信誓旦旦叫「大家安心入睡」,聲言「已為民眾和產業做足準備」。一覺醒來發現台灣被課重稅,民進黨當局急忙召開應變會議,再隔一日才承認台灣工農業出口都面臨重大影響,宣布推出880億新台幣協助方案。
台灣知名作家龍應台在《紐約時報》發表文章,以台灣計程車司機感嘆「今日烏克蘭、明日台灣」為開篇,拷問美國對台承諾的可靠性、兩岸對抗的代價,以及和平之路何在。特朗普清晰展現美國利益至上的本質,令台灣內部「疑美論」驟然升溫。
台灣不能寄生於華府的盤算,真正的命門在於如何處理兩岸關係。龍應台文章中英文版標題合在一起作出了有意義的警示:台灣的時間不多了(The clock is ticking
for Taiwan),維持和平與自由的唯一途徑是與中國和解。