習拜不願兵戎相見 台海烽火風險未消

<轉載自2021年11月17日 明報 社評>

中美元首視像峰會，為穩定兩國關係踏出重要一步。國家主席習近平強調和平共處，美國總統拜登則表示要避免競爭演變成衝突，中美關係進入新時期，縱使博弈依舊激烈，兩國互動至少有望重拾可預期性，降低開戰風險，然而台灣問題始終是一大隱憂。近月台海局勢緊張，北京一再抨擊台北當局「倚美謀獨」、美方有人企圖「以台制華 」，警告玩火者必自焚。有關論調並不新鮮，可是同一番話，由國家主席親自向美國總統嚴正說出，分量與性質可不一樣。中美「競合關係」新常態，能否確保鬥而不破，避免兵戎相見，還看美台兩地政治人物是否知所分寸，適時收手。

中美關係新階段 「老朋友」先過一招

近年中美關係螺旋向下，特朗普政府外交挑釁無底線，危及中美關係基石，戰爭風險顯著上升。拜登接任後，白宮重新審視對華政策，歷時半年有餘，國務卿布林肯提出的「競爭、合作、對抗」三重關係，可視為拜登對華基本框架，呼應了今夏外長王毅提出中美一起梳理「三份清單」（即合作、對話及管控清單）之建議。中美關係重啟迎來契機，孟晚舟事件等得到解決，則為中美元首對話掃除了障礙。今次習拜視像峰會，標誌中美關係正式踏入新階段，兩國關係是否重回正軌，需要更多時間觀察，然而至少可以增加各方的正面預期。

習拜峰會歷時逾3小時，根據會後中美雙方的描述，會晤氣氛良好，跟今年初中美外長阿拉斯加會晤時的劍拔弩張情况，別若天淵。拜登與習近平未當國家元首之前已相識，彼此有一定了解，然而面對美國國內高漲的反華情緒，拜登今年中高調劃清界線，強調兩人「不是老朋友，只是單純工作關係」。沒料到昨天峰會，習近平一開場就以「老朋友」相稱。外交重視符號象徵，「老朋友」一詞在中國外交別具意義，儘管「老朋友」不等於現在是「好朋友」。習近平的開場白，既是釋出善意，某程度亦是測試拜登態度。拜登回話避重就輕，「也許我的開場白應該更正式，惟你我互相對待，從不如此拘謹正式」，「朋友」一詞始終沒有宣之於口，言語之間卻明確承認了兩人的交情，調門已跟之前顯著有別。

中美關係是當下最重要的國際關係，穩定性與可預測性至為重要，這正是特朗普時期所欠缺的。今次習拜會之所以重要，在於重拾兩國互動的可預測性。根據新華社的報道，習拜就中美關係發展的「戰略性、全局性、根本性問題」，以及共同關心的重要問題，進行了充分及深入的溝通，兩國元首都認為會晤「富有成效」，有利增長相互了解。有關說法突出今次峰會首要重點，在於先搞清楚兩國關係一些重大原則問題，而非實務磋商，具體議題爭取「成果」是下一步的事，說會晤「富有成效」而非「富有成果」，正好反映這一點。兩國領袖認為會談有助中美關係再上路，這本身就是「成效」所在。船舵方向正確，自然可以相向而行，由貿易、關稅到氣候變化，兩國工作層面磋商，具體變化不會即時發生，多等一段時間，應可逐步見到一些進展。

習談台灣措辭嚴正 美須停止「以台制華」

習近平就新時期中美相處，提出「三點原則」以及「四個優先事項」。相互尊重、和平共處、合作共贏這3項原則，乃是北京一貫主張；引領國際社會合作應對重大挑戰、推進各層級各領域交往、以建設性的方式管控分歧，防止中美關係脫軌失控，亦是兩國政府分所當為。習近平強調不衝突不對抗是必須堅守的底線，期望拜登推動美國對華政策回歸理性務實軌道，拜登則表示必須避免兩國競爭演變成衝突。中美「必有一戰」之說，近年甚囂塵上，習拜表態不欲兵戎相見，具有重大意義，除非發生重大事變，否則兩國擦槍走火風險應可降低，然而必須指出，兩人的說法只屬期許，並非承諾，更非協議，台海局勢依舊脆弱，倘若華府繼續打擦邊球操作台灣問題，變相縱容台北當局推進法理台獨，踰越了北京的紅線，結局仍舊可能是戰爭。

習近平向拜登釋出合作誠意，然而說到台灣問題，立場嚴正清晰。習近平一邊表示，北京「有耐心」盡最大努力爭取和平統一的前景，意味台美若不輕舉妄動，北京亦不急於考慮武統，然而另一邊廂他亦嚴正警告，「倚美謀獨」、「以台制華」趨勢十分危險，玩火者必自焚，若台獨勢力「突破紅線」，將「不得不採取斷然措施」。兩國正式峰會，一國元首說出如此重的話，分量非比尋常。新華社提到，拜登表示美國政府「長期一貫」致力奉行一個中國政策，「不支持台獨」；會後美方官員吹風，則無提及「不支持台獨」，只重申美國堅持以美中三份公報、六項保證及台灣關係法為指引的一個中國政策，「堅決反對片面改變現狀或破壞台海和平穩定行為」。

以往華府處理台灣問題，奉行戰略模糊政策，「反對片面改變台海現狀」，既是反對北京武統，亦有不支持台獨之意，然而過去一段時間，華府一再以切香腸方式，為台獨力量張目，拜登政府公開支持台灣「參與聯合國體系」，實際是進一步淘空一個中國政策。華府若不糾正錯誤，北京不可能買帳。新華社表示，拜登重申美方不尋求通過強化同盟關係反對中國，中方的態度，相信也是聽其言、觀其行。習拜會為緩和中美關係營造條件，能否重回正軌，還看美方是否講一套做一套。

Xi and Biden Pledge Peace Amid Lurking Taiwan Strait Conflict

THE virtual summit between the Sino-US leaders is an important step towards stabilising the relationship between the two countries. President Xi Jinping stressed the importance of peaceful coexistence, while US President Joe Biden said they have to ensure that the competition between the two powers does not veer into conflict. Though the rivalry between the nations remains fierce, the Sino-US relationship has entered a new stage and hopefully, predictability can at least be restored in their interactions, reducing the risks of war breaking out. However, the Taiwan problem is still a major concern. Amid the high tensions over the Taiwan Strait situation in recent months, Beijing has repeatedly slammed Taipei authorities for "relying on the US for independence" and claimed that some people in the US intend to "use Taiwan to contain China". It has also warned that whoever plays with fire will get burnt. Such a rhetoric is not anything new. But when the same words are spoken solemnly by the Chinese President himself to the US President, their weight and nature speak different volumes. Whether the new norm of a Sino-US "competition-collaboration relationship" could avoid descending into conflict and warfare will depend on whether the politicians in America and Taiwan know their place and when to stop.

The Sino-US relationship has been in a downward spiral in recent years. The bottomless diplomatic provocations by the Trump administration jeopardised the footings of Sino-US relations and raised the risks of conflict significantly. After Biden took office, the White House took more than half a year to review its China policy. The triple-faceted relationship of "competition, collaboration and confrontation" proposed by the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken can be seen as the basic framework of Biden's attitude towards China. The latest Xi-Biden virtual summit thus marks an official new start for the Sino-US relationship.

The Xi-Biden summit lasted for more than three hours. According to the two sides' account of the summit afterwards, the meeting was a friendly one. Biden and Xi had known each other long before they became national leaders and had a certain degree of mutual understanding. Right at the very start of the summit yesterday (November 16), Xi called Biden his "old friend". Symbols and signs are often given high importance in diplomacy. Particularly, the term "old friend" carries special meaning in Chinese diplomacy, even though an "old friend" may not equate to a current "good friend". Xi's opening remarks had the dual effect of sending out a friendly message and to a certain extent, testing Biden's attitude. Biden beat about the bush and avoided mentioning the word "friend" from beginning to end. Still, he clearly admitted their long-standing fellowship between the lines, and his tone was already significantly different from his previous ones.

The Xi-Biden summit is important because it has restored the predictability of the interactions between the two nations. According to Xinhua News Agency, the two leaders had "thorough and in-depth communication and exchanges on issues of strategic, overarching and fundamental importance shaping the development of China-US relations and on important issues of mutual interest". Both presidents agreed that the meeting was fruitful and helped increase their mutual understanding. This account highlights that the presiding focus of the summit was in fact, to sort out the major principal problems concerning their relations rather than to discuss anything practical. The pursuit of "productive outcomes" of specific issues will be a matter of the next step.

Xi stressed that no conflict and no confrontation is a line that both sides must hold, and hoped that Biden will steer America's China policy back on the track of reason and pragmatism. Meanwhile, Biden emphasised on ensuring that the competition between the two countries does not veer into conflict. With the speculation that China and the US will "definitely go to war" growing even more popular in recent years, the fact that Xi and Biden have made it clear that they do not want to wage war against each other is of great significance.

習拜不願兵戎相見 台海烽火風險未消

中美元首視像峰會，為穩定兩國關係踏出重要一步。國家主席習近平強調和平共處，美國總統拜登則表示要避免競爭演變成衝突，中美關係進入新時期，縱使博弈依舊激烈，兩國互動至少有望重拾可預期性，降低開戰風險，然而台灣問題始終是一大隱憂。近月台海局勢緊張，北京一再抨擊台北當局「倚美謀獨」、美方有人企圖「以台制華」，警告玩火者必自焚。有關論調並不新鮮，可是同一番話，由國家主席親自向美國總統嚴正說出，分量與性質可不一樣。中美「競合關係」新常態，能否確保鬥而不破，避免兵戎相見，還看美台兩地政治人物是否知所分寸，適時收手。

近年中美關係螺旋向下，特朗普政府外交挑釁無底線，危及中美關係基石，戰爭風險顯著上升。拜登接任後，白宮重新審視對華政策，歷時半年有餘，國務卿布林肯提出的「競爭、合作、對抗」三重關係，可視為拜登對華基本框架。今次習拜視像峰會，標誌中美關係正式踏入新階段。

習拜峰會歷時逾3小時，根據會後中美雙方的描述，會晤氣氛良好。拜登與習近平未當國家元首之前已相識，彼此有一定了解，昨天峰會，習近平一開場就以「老朋友」相稱。外交重視符號象徵，「老朋友」一詞在中國外交別具意義，儘管「老朋友」不等於現在是「好朋友」。習近平的開場白，既是釋出善意，某程度亦是測試拜登態度。拜登回話避重就輕，「朋友」一詞始終沒有宣之於口，言語之間卻明確承認了兩人的交情，調門已跟之前顯著有別。

今次習拜會之所以重要，在於重拾兩國互動的可預測性。根據新華社的報道，習拜就中美關係發展的「戰略性、全局性、根本性問題」，以及共同關心的重要問題，進行了充分及深入的溝通，兩國元首都認為會晤「富有成效」，有利增長相互了解。有關說法突出今次峰會首要重點，在於先搞清楚兩國關係一些重大原則問題，而非實務磋商，具體議題爭取「成果」是下一步的事。

習近平強調不衝突不對抗是必須堅守的底線，期望拜登推動美國對華政策回歸理性務實軌道，拜登則表示必須避免兩國競爭演變成衝突。中美「必有一戰」之說，近年甚囂塵上，習拜表態不欲兵戎相見，具有重大意義。