2013年9月12日 星期四

馬英九vs.王金平 牽動藍綠消長兩岸關係

<轉載自2013912日 明報 社評>

8年前,馬英九與王金平競逐國民黨主席,當時有台灣傳媒形容為「孤峰頂上」和「紅塵浪裏」的對決,孤峰指馬英九,紅塵是王金平,馬英九以壓倒性優勢勝出;今日,馬英九以王金平司法關說(意即從中游說,疏通關係)為由,強力操作,使國民黨考核紀律委員會撤銷王金平黨籍,王金平正為端坐了14年的立法院長寶座而掙扎。兩人這次惡鬥,表面上馬英九稍佔上風,不過只要熟悉島內政情,都會知道以王金平的人脈和能量,只要他不善罷甘休,則馬英九面對的挑戰現在才開始;馬王互鬥,對台灣政局,特別是藍綠板塊的消長,王金平將起到關鍵作用,也攸關兩岸關係前景。

本來有一手好棋 馬英九下得太糟糕

此事之肇因,據台灣傳媒報道,是王金平涉嫌應民進黨黨團總召集人柯建銘要求,在一宗柯建銘牽涉的貪污公款案一審獲判無罪後,致電時任法務部長曾勇夫和台灣高檢署檢察長陳守煌,希望他們不要上訴,讓柯的無罪判決定案。王金平自辯說立法院收過檢察官濫權上訴的反映,他和曾勇夫的聯絡就是提醒立法院對檢察系統的關切,認為「當然不算關說」。不過,以台灣當局發布特偵組監聽所得王金平、曾勇夫等人的通聯紀錄,王金平的說法難以取信於大多數人。

馬英九對司法關說深惡痛絕,認為王金平踩了他的紅線,要嚴正應對,否則「台灣將走上無限沉淪的處境」,云云。不過,長期以來,馬英九與王金平口和心不和,在台灣並非什麼秘密,馬英九政府一些政策在立法院觸礁,也被認為與王金平有關,所以,島內不少人認為這次政治風暴,是馬英九藉機排斥王金平,是一場政治鬥爭。

一貫以來,馬英九行事予人優柔寡斷之感,不過,他就此事親自披甲上陣,而且首次召開記者會已經指名道姓批評王金平,表示「這是侵犯司法獨立最嚴重的一件事」,是台灣民主政治法治發展「最恥辱的一天」,姿態之高與措辭的講絕講死,顯示他要雷霆一擊,把王金平打翻在地,與馬英九歷來的溫文爾雅,判若兩人。甚至昨日考紀會開會之前,馬英九還高調召開記者會,直指王金平不再適任立法院長,他對黨內施壓誓要王金平出局,是否已經牴觸憲制,已經受到質疑。而且藉王金平到馬來西亞出席女兒的婚禮,發起突襲,與馬英九的君子形象有落差。

事態迄今,除了王金平直接受衝擊,國民黨本土派摩拳擦掌,國民黨榮譽主席連戰以「黨的團結、人心及國家安穩最重要」的訴求勸導,也遭到馬英九嚴辭峻拒。經此一役,馬英九當然還有同路人、支持者,不過,相信與他有扞格的人更多,王金平將怎樣反擊,仍在未知之數,但是馬英九在政敵環伺,黨內凝聚渙散下,置身危機四伏險境,將遭遇怎樣的景,難以預估,但是他的處境肯定更不好過。

馬英九在這件事本來有理,佔據了道德高地,但是事態發展卻予人有盛氣凌人之感,看不到最高領導人應有的大度,手法強橫粗糙,相對於王金平迄今表面上仍然「尊馬」,對馬英九未發一言惡辭,兩相比較,誰更有政治智慧,誰的政治手腕更成熟,相信島內朝野自有判斷。即使此事無關政治鬥爭,純屬馬英九的法治信仰被觸動,但是任何法治社會都不能只看到法律運作,特別是遇到危機,法律最多用以判別對錯,但是涉及的問題需要運用智慧處理,爭取做到危機成為轉機。今次事件,馬英九與他的團隊本來拿到一手好棋,佔有明顯優勢,理應下得很從容,只是過於急躁,使這局棋變成難解的對弈,大好形勢而不識把握,可以責怪誰呢?

王金平是去是留 馬英九國民黨都不好過

王金平正在為捍衛名位而戰,他擺出低姿態,並不表示已被擊倒,前晚王金平返抵台灣,約10名立委和逾千名各方人士到機場迎接,場面和聲勢折射出他的人脈和能量,對台灣政局舉足輕重。王金平在給國民黨考紀會的陳述書,署名為「中國國民黨永久黨員王金平」,顯示並無異心,不過,無論他在國民黨的去留,都牽動整個政局。

設若他力爭之下留在國民黨,以馬英九在此事的表現,作為主席,何以自處?至於在立法院與政府層面,王金平留黨,則仍然是立法院長,屆時經過此事後與馬團隊的心結,將更難合作。設若王金平最終被逐出國民黨,除非他即時告老歸田,不問政事,否則一舉一動都會改變政局。王金平的選擇包括可以組黨、與民進黨結盟等,或許他的能量不足以與國民黨、民進黨鼎足而三,但是只要他有政治意願,則分裂國民黨,使國民黨再一次失去政權,甚至以後難以再翻身,王金平仍然有這個能耐。

近期,北京對兩岸關係,已非全部押注在國民黨身上,與民進黨一些重量級人物,例如謝長廷、陳菊,甚至蔡英文等,都有不同程度接觸。馬英九與王金平惡鬥,說明北京的策略恰當,否則設若台灣政局再變天,北京就十分被動了。馬英九與王金平這波「孤峰頂上」與「紅塵浪裏」的對決,不但是他們兩人競逐的新一集,對台灣政局的影響較過往更深層。現在國民黨的情,有點當年李登輝與宋楚瑜惡鬥的味道,當時國民黨因而丟掉政權,歷史會否重演,不知道,但是民進黨的運氣看來不錯,因為歷史的軌似曾相識。

Editorial

The Battle between Ma and Wang



EIGHT YEARS AGO, in their contest for the Kuomintang (KMT) chairmanship, Ma Ying-jeou scored an overwhelming victory over Wang Jin-pyng. Yesterday (September 11), citing as his reason Wang's alleged involvement in lobbying the judiciary, Ma has taken a tough line and has had the KMT disciplinary committee strip Wang of his party membership. Wang is now struggling to keep his position as president of the Legislative Yuan - a position he has held for 14 years.


According to the Taiwan media, Wang got into trouble for having complied with a request from Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) caucus whip Ker Chien-ming after the latter was found not guilty of an embezzlement of public money charge. Wang had called Tseng Yung-fu, then minister of justice, and Chen Shou-huang, head of the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office, asking that no appeal be lodged against the not-guilty verdict, so that the verdict might stand. Wang said in self-defence that the Legislative Yuan had received complaints about prosecutors' abuse of their power to appeal acquittals, and he had called Tseng simply to remind him of the Legislative Yuan's concern in this respect, which "was not what might be called lobbying". To most people, Wang's explanation is hardly convincing.


However, it is no secret in Taiwan that Ma and Wang, though superficially on good terms, have always been enemies with each other. Therefore, many Taiwanese believe that the present crisis is a political battle and Ma is making use of the opportunity to get rid of Wang.

Ma is generally noted for his indecision and deficient will-power. However, he has now put himself in the frontline of the battle, declaring that what Wang did was "the most serious infringement of the independence of the judiciary" and marked "the most shameful day" in the development of Taiwan's democracy and rule of law. Evidently, he is determined to deliver a knockout punch that will finish Wang off.

Wang is putting up a fight for his reputation and position. On September 10, when he returned to Taiwan, he was received at the airport by about 10 Legislative Yuan members and more than 1,000 people from different sectors of society - an impressive scene which underlined his wide connections and great influence. In fact, Wang is so important a figure in Taiwan's political arena that his leaving or staying in the KMT is bound to have a strong impact on the overall political landscape.

If Wang is successful in his bid to stay in the KMT, he will continue to be president of the Legislative Yuan and will be even less likely to cooperate with Ma's governing team after this incident. And if in spite of his efforts he is eventually expelled from the KMT, his influence is such that he can, if he wants, cause a split in the KMT, so that it may again be thrown out of power.

With respect to Taiwan, Beijing in recent years has not staked everything on the KMT, but has also, to a greater or lesser extent, got in touch with DPP heavyweights like Frank Hsieh Chang-ting, Chen Chu, and even Tsai Ing-wen. The present bitter struggle between Ma and Wang shows that Beijing is well-advised to do so, or it will find itself in a very passive position if the DPP again comes into power. Things in the KMT today are reminiscent of the former struggle between Lee Teng-hui and James Soong Chu-yu, which cost the KMT its position as ruling party. Will history repeat itself? We have yet to learn the answer, but the DPP does seem to be in luck.

明報社評2013.09.12馬英九vs.王金平 牽動藍綠消長兩岸關係

8年前,馬英九與王金平競逐國民黨主席,馬英九以壓倒性優勢勝出;昨日,馬英九以王金平司法關說(意即從中游說,疏通關係)為由,強力操作,使國民黨考核紀律委員會撤銷王金平黨籍,王金平正為端坐了14年的立法院長寶座而掙扎。

此事之肇因,據台灣傳媒報道,是王金平涉嫌應民進黨黨團總召集人柯建銘要求,在一宗柯建銘牽涉的貪污公款案一審獲判無罪後,致電時任法務部長曾勇夫和台灣高檢署檢察長陳守煌,希望他們不要上訴,讓柯的無罪判決定案。王金平自辯說立法院收過檢察官濫權上訴的反映,他和曾勇夫的聯絡就是提醒立法院對檢察系統的關切,認為「當然不算關說」。王金平的說法難以取信於大多數人。

不過,長期以來,馬英九與王金平口和心不和,在台灣並非什麼秘密,所以,島內不少人認為這次政治風暴,是馬英九藉機排斥王金平,是一場政治鬥爭。

一貫以來,馬英九行事予人優柔寡斷之感,不過,他就此事親自披甲上陣,表示「這是侵犯司法獨立最嚴重的一件事」,是台灣民主政治法治發展「最恥辱的一天」,顯示他要雷霆一擊,把王金平打翻在地。

王金平正在為捍衛名位而戰,前晚王金平返抵台灣,約10名立委和逾千名各方人士到機場迎接,場面和聲勢折射出他的人脈和能量,對台灣政局舉足輕重。無論他在國民黨的去留,都牽動整個政局。

設若他力爭之下留在國民黨,則仍然是立法院長,屆時經過此事後與馬團隊的心結,將更難合作。設若王金平最終被逐出國民黨,只要他有政治意願,則分裂國民黨,使國民黨再一次失去政權,王金平仍然有這個能耐。

近期,北京對兩岸關係,已非全部押注在國民黨身上,與民進黨一些重量級人物,例如謝長廷、陳菊,甚至蔡英文等,都有不同程度接觸。馬英九與王金平惡鬥,說明北京的策略恰當,否則設若台灣政局再變天,北京就十分被動了。現在國民黨的情,有點當年李登輝與宋楚瑜惡鬥的味道,當時國民黨因而丟掉政權,歷史會否重演,不知道,但是民進黨的運氣看來不錯。


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