習近平新時代開啟 撤隔代接班惹懸念

<轉載自2017年10月26日 明報 社評>

隨着「習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想」寫入中共黨章、十九大中共權力佈局底定，習近平時代正式開啟。過去5年，習近平統率班子在各個方面取得亮麗成績，十九大之後，他的主導力更強、預期班子更如臂使指，有理由憧憬未來5年政績可更期待。另外，十九大人事安排，「隔代指定接班」安排並未出現，這個不成文慣例被打破，折射5年後中共權力轉移將發生什麼情况，值得關注。

5年4個時間點 檢視習班子政績

昨日，習近平帶領新一屆常委與傳媒見面並發表講話時，勾畫了4個時間節點，分別是明年為改革開放40周年、2019年是中共建政70周年、2020年是全面建成小康社會、2021年是中國共產黨成立100周年；因此，未來5年，可按這4個節點檢視當局施政成效。昨日，習近平重申「改革開放是決定當代中國命運的關鍵一招」，將堅定不移深化各方面改革，堅定不移擴大開放，這個宣示不單是對內讓人民放心，也讓國際社會知道改革開放方針不會改變。過去一段時間，當局經常說改革開放到了「深水區」、「攻堅期」，因此如何衝開發展瓶頸，將是新班子的重責大任。此外，2020年實現全面建成小康社會，已經沒有懸念，就看當局怎樣完成脫貧攻堅，並開展「共同富裕路上，一個不能掉隊」承諾的工作。

至於中共建政70周年、中國共產黨成立100周年，習近平說了「千秋偉業、風華正茂」等豪言壯語。在國家崛起、民族復興的征程上，中國共產黨作為執政黨能否完成任務、兌現承諾，主要視乎體質是否健康。過去5年，習近平主導肅貪反腐，成績卓著，昨日他說「全面從嚴治黨永遠在路上，不能有任何喘口氣、歇歇腳的念頭」，並表示「將繼續清除一切侵蝕黨的健康肌體的病毒」。這個表述，讓人對中國共產黨的自我完善，抱持希望。目前，中共與國家命運密不可分，設若她走回頭路，習近平提出的民族復興大業，將會淪為空言，期望他治下的黨實現風清氣正，凝聚力量，推動國家建設進步。

過去5年，習近平在許多方面大破大立，使共產黨和國家都出現新面貌、新氣象。就十九大人事佈局，除了政治局和常委引入許多新面孔，還破了一個不成文做法，就是未安排「隔代指定接班」。政治上，「慣例」隨着事過境遷，或許不應該一成不變。上屆政治局委員李源潮、張春賢、劉奇葆3人，未屆退休年齡，都未能留任，其中國家副主席李源潮連中央委員也不再是了；以此觀之，習近平破除隔代接班，或許也是按新情况的需要。不過，由於隔代接班涉及更重要安排，其改動不能以一般情况視之。

歷來中共最高權力轉移，都是頭等大事，而中共黨內最高領導人之產生，過程隱密，外界不知道箇中絲毫情况，中共建政以來，因為爭奪領導人權位而觸發的鬥爭，殘酷程度使人咋舌。當年鄧小平掌權之後，為免重蹈毛澤東主政時期的覆轍，推動中共高層領導人「集體領導」體制，並隔代指定接班，以避免派系政治爭鬥生亂。胡錦濤和習近平就是經由這個接班安排，逐步接掌中共最高領導人權位。實踐說明，隔代接班安排起着積極作用，起碼表面上未見以往那種使人驚慄的鬥爭。

隔代接班還有一個效果，就是既然早知誰將接班，其路線、方針和政策取向，在起碼5年的言行中，外界已知梗概，有助國內外對政策穩定和延續性的了解。隔代接班使極度隱密的中共接班安排，一定程度上透明化，不僅讓國人得知國家將由誰來領導，國際社會可藉此觀察和判斷中國走向。從胡錦濤和習近平的隔代接班，對內、對外都起到積極效果。

當然，隔代接班也可能衍生一些反效果，例如接班人過早出現，不僅制約了同齡人的積極性，也制約了當朝領導人的選擇，對被指定接班的人也可能承受不必要壓力等，不過，這些反效果，若與爭權惡鬥而動搖黨國根基比較，隔代接班仍有一定可取之處。

隔代接班並非完美 實踐證明未見惡鬥

習近平施政有破有立，惟就打破隔代指定接班，卻未見提出新安排。有說法，沒有隔代接班，是為2022年之後習近平繼續掌權，創造條件；另有說法是讓百駿競走，能者居之，此乃新思維云云。這些說法，是耶非耶，姑妄聽之。事實是沒有政治繼承制度，則中國政治前景多了一層不明朗因素，即使習近平5年後繼續領導中國，之後又如何，他總有息政之日；至於開放競爭，又如何避免重演爭權惡鬥而貽誤蒼生？總之，一日未能凝聚最大公約數的政治繼承制度，一日都難以令人完全釋懷。

The era of Xi Jinping

AS "Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era" has been written into the constitution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the CPC's power structure as manifested in the 19th National Congress has been confirmed, the era of Xi Jinping has officially started.

Yesterday, Xi Jinping, leading the standing members of the new term of the Central Politburo, met the press and gave a speech, in which he outlined four particular points in the time line: next year, which will be forty years into the Reform and Opening Up policy; 2019, which will be the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the CPC's government; 2020, which will be the time of the comprehensive creation of a moderately prosperous society; 2021, which will mark the centenary of the CPC. In other words, over the coming five years, these four points in time will be the yardsticks by which to examine the success of the government's administration. Yesterday, Xi reiterated that "the Reform and Opening Up policy will be a crucial strategy that determines the fate of contemporary China," and that he would unswervingly deepen the reforms in all aspects and unswervingly expand the "opening up" policy. Such a declaration has not only put citizens' worries to rest domestically, but also let the international community realise that the Reform and Opening Up policy will remain unchanged.

Over the past five years, Xi Jinping has shaken the political system to its foundations, which has been followed by great achievements. This has brought a breath of fresh air and given a new lease of life to the CPC and China. As for the power structure, not only have many new faces been introduced to the Central Politburo and the standing committee, but an unwritten rule has also been broken, as Xi has chosen not to appoint a successor. Politically speaking, what is usual practice does not necessarily have to remain unchanged given the change of the times. Li Yuanchao, Zhang Chunxian and Liu Qibao, who were members of the last term of the Central Politburo, have all left their posts even though they have yet to reach retirement age. Li Yuanchao, the Chinese vice-president, is not even a member of the Central Committee. It can thus be seen that Xi broke with the tradition perhaps to cope with the need of the new situation. However, as the practice of appointing a successor has to do with some even more important arrangements, the changes cannot be deemed as comparable to ordinary situations.

The transfer of supreme power within the CPC has always been a matter of paramount importance. The selection of the supreme leader of the CPC has always been shrouded in secrecy, and outsiders are kept in the dark. Since the establishment of the CPC government, power struggles resulting from the fight for leadership had been marked by astonishing cruelty. When Deng Xiaoping took the helm, in order to avoid repeating the mistakes made during Mao's reign, he put in place a mechanism of collective leadership and the appointment of a successor to prevent chaos that resulted from struggles between factions. Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping came to power through such arrangements step by step. As far as we can see, the practice has a positive effect, as frightening power struggles that happened in the past have been prevented.

Another effect of choosing a successor is that as it is known who will take the helm, people on the outside can get a glimpse of his direction, guiding principles and preferences for policies from what he says and does during that five-year period. This provides people inside and outside China with an understanding of the stability and continuity of policies. No doubt the practice can have some adverse effects, as the premature emergence of a successor might reduce the purposefulness of other leaders of the same generation, limit the choice of the incumbent leadership, or cause unnecessary pressure to those appointed to be the successor. For all its flaws, the practice of appointing a successor is still preferable in comparison to the power struggles that shook the CPC and China to their foundations.

習近平新時代開啟 撤隔代接班惹懸念

隨着「習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想」寫入中共黨章、十九大中共權力佈局底定，習近平時代正式開啟。

昨日，習近平帶領新一屆常委與傳媒見面並發表講話時，勾畫了4個時間節點，分別是明年為改革開放40周年、2019年是中共建政70周年、2020年是全面建成小康社會、2021年是中國共產黨成立100周年；因此，未來5年，可按這4個節點檢視當局施政成效。昨日，習近平重申「改革開放是決定當代中國命運的關鍵一招」，將堅定不移深化各方面改革，堅定不移擴大開放，這個宣示不單是對內讓人民放心，也讓國際社會知道改革開放方針不會改變。

過去5年，習近平在許多方面大破大立，使共產黨和國家都出現新面貌、新氣象。就十九大人事佈局，除了政治局和常委引入許多新面孔，還破了一個不成文做法，就是未安排「隔代指定接班」。政治上，「慣例」隨着事過境遷，或許不應該一成不變。上屆政治局委員李源潮、張春賢、劉奇葆3人，未屆退休年齡，都未能留任，其中國家副主席李源潮連中央委員也不再是了；以此觀之，習近平破除隔代接班，或許也是按新情况的需要。不過，由於隔代接班涉及更重要安排，其改動不能以一般情况視之。

歷來中共最高權力轉移，都是頭等大事，而中共黨內最高領導人之產生，過程隱密，外界不知道箇中絲毫情况，中共建政以來，因為爭奪領導人權位而觸發的鬥爭，殘酷程度使人咋舌。當年鄧小平掌權之後，為免重蹈毛澤東主政時期的覆轍，推動中共高層領導人「集體領導」體制，並隔代指定接班，以避免派系政治爭鬥生亂。胡錦濤和習近平就是經由這個接班安排，逐步接掌中共最高領導人權位。實踐說明，隔代接班安排起着積極作用，起碼表面上未見以往那種使人驚慄的鬥爭。

隔代接班還有一個效果，就是既然早知誰將接班，其路線、方針和政策取向，在起碼5年的言行中，外界已知梗概，有助國內外對政策穩定和延續性的了解。當然，隔代接班也可能衍生一些反效果，例如接班人過早出現，不僅制約了同齡人的積極性，也制約了當朝領導人的選擇，對被指定接班的人也可能承受不必要壓力等，不過，這些反效果，若與爭權惡鬥而動搖黨國根基比較，隔代接班仍有一定可取之處。