特朗普要面子 金正恩贏裡子

<轉載自2018年6月13日 明報 社評>

美朝領袖破天荒舉行峰會，特朗普與金正恩並且發表了聯合聲明，尋求建立美朝新關係，推動「朝鮮半島完全無核化」。美朝對峙數十年，兩國領袖終於走上對話之路，標誌半島局勢有望真正緩和，平壤走出孤立，勢將改寫東北亞形勢。今次峰會，說不定真可提高特朗普贏得諾貝爾和平獎的機會，惟美國所得的實際好處卻相當有限，聯合聲明不僅未有列明美方的「完全、可驗證、不可逆轉無核化」原則，特朗普還宣布叫停美韓軍演。金正恩未作多少妥協，便贏得特朗普一再讓步，可說是一次重大外交勝利。

無核化角力美國退讓 叫停軍演送朝鮮大禮

朝鮮半島和平牽動整個東北亞，過去廿年歷史證明，不管韓國政府如何努力推動和平，若沒有華府背書，只會原地踏步。當日特朗普答應美朝峰會，韓國總統文在寅一句「特朗普應獲諾貝爾和平獎」，讓特朗普頗為受落。這次特朗普與金正恩會晤，為半島和平邁出關鍵一步，歷史意義重大。「有原子彈有偈傾」，金正恩成功令美國總統來到談判桌，雙方平起平坐會談，實現祖父金日成和父親金正日未竟之志，大大提升他在國內外的地位；對於特朗普來說，這次歷史會晤也將令他載入史冊。當然，「特金會」只是奠下一個相當虛的談判框架，日後談判漫長艱巨，加上雙方不乏出爾反爾往迹，橫生枝節甚或推翻協議亦未可料，一切還看雙方是否願意繼續釋出善意。

美朝聯合聲明要點有四，包括﹕1. 雙方承諾建立新的美朝關係；2. 兩國共同努力，在朝鮮半島建立永久穩定的和平機制；3. 朝鮮重申《板門店宣言》，承諾為朝鮮半島完全非核化努力；4. 美朝承諾致力尋回戰俘或失蹤士兵遺骸。撇開第4點，若將前3點歸納起來，其實就是中方主張的「雙軌並進」，既滿足美方要求朝鮮舉行棄核談判，又滿足平壤要求美國承諾保障安全。

峰會前特朗普不斷吹噓其「極限施壓」制裁策略，如何成功逼朝鮮來到談判桌。他的政治盟友朱利亞尼，還大力給特朗普臉上貼金，聲稱上月特朗普宣布取消「特金會」後，金正恩「跪地乞求」重開峰會，優勢完全在美國一方，云云。不過細看美朝聯合聲明，卻不禁令人懷疑， 雖然特朗普得到面子，然而金正恩才是贏了裡子。

美朝對實現無核化分歧鮮明，美方開天索價，要求朝鮮遵照「完全、可驗證及不可逆轉無核化」原則（簡稱CVID），一步到位單方面棄核，平壤則強調分階段實現「半島無核化」，要求美國也放棄對半島的核震懾，不再軍事威脅朝鮮，美方還得分階段提供甜頭，換取朝鮮逐步棄核。近日特朗普放軟口風，不提「極限施壓」，亦不談「一步到位棄核」，反而形容這是需要一段時間的「進程」，似有落地還錢之意。峰會前夕，據報美方仍堅持聯合聲明要清楚寫入CVID，惟朝鮮反對，最終聯合聲明完全沒有提及CVID，反而用了《板門店宣言》的「半島完全無核化」字眼。美朝就「無核化」的首回合角力，華府顯然未獲甜頭。

特朗普承諾與朝鮮磋商安全保證，答應停止美韓軍演，是另一焦點。過去平壤一直批美韓軍演是挑釁，要求終止，現在特朗普不僅答應，還親口認同軍演「極度挑釁」，這對金正恩來說，相信是一份意料之外的大禮。美朝避免劍拔弩張，對於緩和東北亞局勢，當然是好事，可是特朗普未先跟韓方溝通便叫停軍演，還流露長遠有撤走駐韓美軍之意，在韓美兩國都惹來不少議論。

誠然，特朗普一向不滿為盟友提供軍事保護「埋單」，他在記者會亦說，停止美韓軍演可幫美國省錢，不過美韓軍演大部分開支，本來便是韓方負責，華府叫停軍演省不了多少錢。特朗普吹噓朝鮮有臨場送禮，拆毀一處導彈引擎測試場，然而金正恩已擁有核武和洲際導彈，清拆一些舊測試場亦沒有相干。無怪有西方評論語帶諷刺，形容特朗普對朝鮮竟然是「鴿派」，有美方專家更表示震驚，「金正恩要的，我們幾乎全給了」。

落實雙暫停雙軌並進 中方藍圖主導新形勢

特朗普放軟立場，是否另有盤算，諸如拉攏朝鮮牽制中國，外界無從得知，惟觀乎現實發展，中朝關係似乎只有加強之勢。目前整個東北亞變局，大抵沿着中方藍圖去走。隨着朝鮮停止核武導彈測試，美韓軍演又叫停，中方主張的「雙暫停」和「雙軌並進」已悄然落實。相比之下，朝美關係仍然充滿變數，高談「平壤倒向美國」為時尚早。特金會後，中方迅即表示國際社會應考慮撤銷制裁朝鮮。最近中方據報已放鬆對朝貿易限制，雖然美方強調朝鮮一日未棄核，美國都不會解除制裁，可是如果華府真想推進談判，很難不向朝鮮提供甜頭，特朗普可能要默許中朝加強貿易，讓朝鮮得到好處。中朝由意識形態「血盟」變為戰略合作關係，平壤為了搞活經濟及增加對美談判籌碼，未來需要借助中國之力。

The Trump-Kim Summit

AFTER the historic summit between the US and North Korea, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un published a joint declaration, seeking to establish a new relationship to pursue the "complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula". After a confrontation lasting for several decades, leaders of the two countries have finally engaged in dialogue. This signals that the situation on the Korean peninsula is showing signs of real de-escalation. As the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) steps out of isolation, the situation of Northeastern Asia is about to change. This summit might indeed increase Donald Trump's chances of winning a Nobel prize for peace. But the US has gained few real advantages. Not only does the joint declaration fail to state clearly the principle of "complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearisation" (CVID) as demanded by the US, but Donald Trump has also called off the US's joint war games with South Korea. That Kim has successfully extracted a string of concessions from Donald Trump without offering too many compromises can be regarded as a major diplomatic victory.

The joint declaration made by the US and South Korea contains four main points: 1. Both sides commit to establish new US-DPRK relations; 2. Both countries will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula; 3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula; 4. The US and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains. The first three points can be summarised as the "double-track" approach proposed by the Chinese government, one that satisfies both the US's demand of denuclearisation talks and Pyongyang's demand of the US's guarantee of its security.

Before the summit took place, Donald Trump was boasting incessantly about his "maximum pressure" tactics and how they succeeded in forcing North Korea to return to the negotiating table. Rudy Giuliani, Trump's political ally, sang Trump's praises and claimed that when Trump announced the cancellation of the summit last month, Kim "got back on his hands and knees and begged" for the summit to be revived, that the US had all the advantages, etc. A closer look at the joint declaration, however, makes one feel that Trump might have won the respect, but it was Kim who was the winner in real terms.

The US and North Korea had fundamental differences over denuclearisation. The US, in an exorbitant demand, asked North Korea to adhere to the principle of CVID. Prior to the summit, it was understood that the US insisted that CVID should be in the joint declaration. But North Korea was opposed to the idea. At last CVID was nowhere to be seen in the joint declaration. What the declaration contains was the "complete denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula", as proposed in the Panmunjom Declaration. The first contest over "denuclearisation" ended with Washington not winning an advantage.

It is understood the Chinese government has eased its restrictions on trade with North Korea recently. Despite the US's claim that it will not lift the sanctions until North Korea denuclearises, it is difficult for Washington to advance the talks without giving North Korea some incentives. Trump might then have to acquiesce in the increased trade between China and North Korea that benefits the latter. Relations between China and North Korea have transformed from "an alliance sealed in blood" to a strategic alliance. To revive its economy and increase its bargaining chips when it negotiates with the US, Pyongyang might need China's help in the future.

特朗普要面子 金正恩贏裡子

美朝領袖破天荒舉行峰會，特朗普與金正恩並且發表了聯合聲明，尋求建立美朝新關係，推動「朝鮮半島完全無核化」。美朝對峙數十年，兩國領袖終於走上對話之路，標誌半島局勢有望真正緩和，平壤走出孤立，勢將改寫東北亞形勢。今次峰會，說不定真可提高特朗普贏得諾貝爾和平獎的機會，惟美國所得的實際好處卻相當有限，聯合聲明不僅未有列明美方的「完全、可驗證、不可逆轉無核化」原則，特朗普還宣布叫停美韓軍演。金正恩未作多少妥協，便贏得特朗普一再讓步，可說是一次重大外交勝利。

美朝聯合聲明要點有四，包括﹕1. 雙方承諾建立新的美朝關係；2. 兩國共同努力，在朝鮮半島建立永久穩定的和平機制；3. 朝鮮重申《板門店宣言》，承諾為朝鮮半島完全非核化努力；4. 美朝承諾致力尋回戰俘或失蹤士兵遺骸。撇開第4點，若將前3點歸納起來，其實就是中方主張的「雙軌並進」，既滿足美方要求朝鮮舉行棄核談判，又滿足平壤要求美國承諾保障安全。

峰會前特朗普不斷吹噓其「極限施壓」制裁策略，如何成功逼朝鮮來到談判桌。他的政治盟友朱利亞尼，還大力給特朗普臉上貼金，聲稱上月特朗普宣布取消「特金會」後，金正恩「跪地乞求」重開峰會，優勢完全在美國一方，云云。不過細看美朝聯合聲明，卻不禁令人懷疑， 雖然特朗普得到面子，然而金正恩才是贏了裡子。

美朝對實現無核化分歧鮮明，美方開天索價，要求朝鮮遵照「完全、可驗證及不可逆轉無核化」原則（簡稱CVID）。峰會前夕，據報美方仍堅持聯合聲明要清楚寫入CVID，惟朝鮮反對，最終聯合聲明完全沒有提及CVID，反而用了《板門店宣言》的「半島完全無核化」字眼。美朝就「無核化」的首回合角力，華府顯然未獲甜頭。

最近中方據報已放鬆對朝貿易限制，雖然美方強調朝鮮一日未棄核，美國都不會解除制裁，可是如果華府真想推進談判，很難不向朝鮮提供甜頭，特朗普可能要默許中朝加強貿易，讓朝鮮得到好處。中朝由意識形態「血盟」變為戰略合作關係，平壤為了搞活經濟及增加對美談判籌碼，未來需要借助中國之力。