從遼寧艦到長征五號 軍事強國之路仍漫長

<轉載自2017年7月10日 明報 社評>

中國首艘航空母艦「遼寧號」一連兩日在港公開展示，在城中掀起一陣熱潮。近年中國軍備科技確有長足進步，繼遼寧號後，首艘完全國產的航母001A和首艘萬噸級導彈驅逐艦也相繼下水，第四代隱形戰機殲20亦已成軍，反導反衛星技術以及超高音速飛行器都有所突破，於是，中國軍力超俄趕美之說甚囂塵上。遼寧號訪港，的確有助市民更了解中國的軍力，但若因此就認為中國軍力已與美俄平起平坐，則難免墮入夜郎自大的迷思。

長征五號發射失利 太空站計劃或生變

就在遼寧號訪港前的7月2日，海南文昌航天發射場發射的長征五號遙二火箭，飛行異常，發射失利。6月19日，西昌衛星發射中心用長征三號乙運載火箭發射中星9A廣播電視直播衛星時，火箭三級工作亦出現異常，衛星未能進入預定軌道。雖經數次調整姿態，到上周衛星終於返回正軌，但從去年9月至今，中國航天發射已經歷至少3次失利。長征五號遙二火箭發射的失敗，令原定11月嫦娥五號月球探測器發射的計劃也面臨變數。若嫦娥五號無法於今年內升空，原定的建造太空站、載人登月、探測火星等一系列太空探索時間表，也會被打亂。

耗時10年研製的長征五號是中國目前最重型運載火箭，也是為了追趕美俄歐日印等太空火箭發射技術的精心之作，這次發射失敗，說明中國距離真正的太空軍事強國仍有長路要走。

中國自1985年百萬大裁軍後，鄧小平一句「軍隊要忍耐」軍費大減，為經濟建設讓路，令中國與美蘇等國軍事實力差距進一步擴闊，國產武器與世界先進水平出現了幾代的差距。

1991年的沙漠風暴戰爭中，美軍在100小時內對號稱中東軍事強國的伊拉克摧枯拉朽，在中國軍隊內部引起極大震撼。從那時起，藉着蘇聯解體，中國開始引入前蘇聯的軍事科技與人才，遼寧號的前身瓦良格號就是在1998年從烏克蘭購買回來的。1999年美國戰機「誤炸」中國駐南斯拉夫使館事件後，舉國憤怒，中央遂決定啟動「995工程」，大幅增加軍費，研製先進戰機和導彈，加強軍備。在不足20年的時間內，中國軍事實力確實大幅縮窄了與世界先進國家美國、俄羅斯的差距，陸軍已經由機械化、摩托化邁向信息化、合成化，空軍則由國土防空型邁向空天一體、攻防兼備型，海軍由近岸型的「黃水海軍」初步邁向大洋的「藍水海軍」，火箭軍也成為「核常兼備」的戰略威懾力量，以中國薄弱的軍工基礎，取得今日的成就，實屬難能可貴。

20年發展成就雖大 軍力並非單憑武器

中國今日的國力雖今非昔比，但周邊安全形勢依然險惡，北有朝核危機，南有南海糾紛，東有釣島爭議與台灣問題困擾，西有與印度的領土糾紛，以及恐怖主義與疆獨分離勢力的合流，加上近年中國「一帶一路」對外投資的增多，中國的國家利益和安全憂患已經超出國境，對國家的軍事能力提出了更高要求。

近年來，中國軍工系統確實做出了很大成就，除武器裝備外，在太空科技、民航客機製造、深海探測等民用科技方面的成就，也有軍工系統的功勞，因此，政壇上也湧現了一批引人矚目的軍工系政治明星。不過，軍工科技系統也非世外桃源，內地的一些體制弊端和社會上的不良風氣對軍工科技界也不無影響。與早年研發「兩彈（原子彈、氫彈）一星（人造衛星）」的老一輩軍工科技工作者相比，年輕一輩欠缺嚴謹態度和?牲精神，諉過爭功，好大喜功；科研作風浮躁，不夠嚴謹；因待遇問題引致的人才流失，種種問題，都影響中國軍工科技的踏實發展。

坊間對各國軍力有五花八門的排行榜，無非都是以飛機大炮戰艦的數量來作評斷。但是，一國軍力的強弱，不能簡單看武器裝備的數量性能，而需從多個層面綜合評估，包括戰略方針、指導理論、指揮體系、技術戰術、經濟實力、工業基礎以及作戰士氣，都是重要因素。單純以武器裝備的先進與否來評價軍力水平，注定只會得出錯誤的結論。因此，必須清醒地認識到，對中國軍力的進步視而不見，認為今日中國面對美俄等強國仍如滿清時代般不堪一擊，固然是昧於現實的妄自菲薄；但以為中國軍力已經超俄趕美，甚至睥睨亞太，以至一些網上憤青動輒叫囂要教訓鄰國，也屬井底之蛙，盲目自大，並非真正愛國的表現。「國雖大，好戰必亡；天下雖安，忘戰必危。」古人的至理名言，值得認真記取。

Far from being military power

THE PUBLIC EXHIBITION of Liaoning (China's first aircraft carrier) in Hong Kong on two consecutive days raised in town great fervour. China has indeed made in recent years rapid progress in armament technology. After Liaoning, 001A (the first wholly China-built aircraft carrier) and a 10,000-ton guided missile destroyer have been launched one after the other, 4th-generation Jian-20 stealth jet fighters have been put into service, and breakthroughs have been made in developing anti-missile and anti-satellite technologies and manufacturing hypersonic glide vehicles. Therefore, it has been clamorously asserted that China has surpassed Russia and is hot after the US in military power.

China was nowhere near as strong as it is now, but the situation of its peripheral security is as perilous as it has ever been. The country is faced in the north with the North Korea nuclear crisis, in the south with South China Sea disputes, in the east with disputes over the Diaoyu islets and the Taiwan question and, in the west, with its territorial disputes with India and the confluence of terrorists and Xinjiang separatists. Furthermore, its investments along what is called "One Belt One Road" have increased. Therefore, its interests have gone beyond its borders. That has set even higher demands on its military capabilities.

Those in China's armament industry have in recent years achieved much. They have contributed to what China has achieved not only in weapon production but also in making civil aircraft and deep-sea research submersibles and developing space technology and other civil technologies. This being the case, a number of eye-catching political stars have arrived in China's political arena from its armament industry. Being no Shangri-la, its armament industry is not immune to maladies of the mainland system and evil tendencies in society. Unlike the scientists involved in making "the two bombs (atomic and hydrogen) and one satellite", those in the younger generation are less than rigorous and have no spirit of sacrifice. They tend to shift the blame and claim credit, and they crave greatness and success. The way they do research is more impulsive than meticulous. And problems of remuneration have caused a brain drain. Such problems are far from conducive to the steady development of China's armament industry.

There are on the market all sorts of rankings of national military strength. Countries are ranked invariably on the basis of the numbers of aircraft, guns and naval vessels they have. However, a country's military strength does not simply depend on the size and performance of its weaponry. It should be assessed comprehensively with regard to various aspects: strategic policy, guiding theories, command systems, technical tactics, economic power, industrial foundations and combat morale. These are all important factors. He who assesses a country's military strength solely on the basis of its weaponry's sophistication is bound to arrive at a wrong conclusion. One unrealistically belittles one's country if one, turning a blind eye to increases in its military strength, believes it is as unable to withstand a single blow as it was in Qing dynasty in the face of such powers as the US and Russia. However, one ought to be so sober as to realise that he has a limited outlook who believes China has surpassed Russia and is hard on the heels of the US in military strength and may consider all in Asia-Pacific beneath its notice. There are angry young people that yell online at every turn China should teach its neighbours lessons. Such blind arrogance does not signify true patriotism. "A bellicose country will certainly perish, however great it may be, and, though peace reigns in the world, a country will endanger itself if it forgets war." Such sagacious ancient remarks are very much worth bearing in mind.

從遼寧艦到長征五號 軍事強國之路仍漫長

中國首艘航空母艦「遼寧號」一連兩日在港公開展示，在城中掀起一陣熱潮。近年中國軍備科技確有長足進步，繼遼寧號後，首艘完全國產的航母001A和首艘萬噸級導彈驅逐艦也相繼下水，第四代隱形戰機殲20亦已成軍，反導反衛星技術以及超高音速飛行器都有所突破，於是，中國軍力超俄趕美之說甚囂塵上。

中國今日的國力雖今非昔比，但周邊安全形勢依然險惡，北有朝核危機，南有南海糾紛，東有釣島爭議與台灣問題困擾，西有與印度的領土糾紛，以及恐怖主義與疆獨分離勢力的合流，加上近年中國「一帶一路」對外投資的增多，中國的國家利益和安全憂患已經超出國境，對國家的軍事能力提出了更高要求。

近年來，中國軍工系統確實做出了很大成就，除武器裝備外，在太空科技、民航客機製造、深海探測等民用科技方面的成就，也有軍工系統的功勞，因此，政壇上也湧現了一批引人矚目的軍工系政治明星。不過，軍工科技系統也非世外桃源，內地的一些體制弊端和社會上的不良風氣對軍工科技界也不無影響。與早年研發「兩彈（原子彈、氫彈）一星（人造衛星）」的老一輩軍工科技工作者相比，年輕一輩欠缺嚴謹態度和犧牲精神，諉過爭功，好大喜功；科研作風浮躁，不夠嚴謹；因待遇問題引致的人才流失，種種問題，都影響中國軍工科技的踏實發展。

坊間對各國軍力有五花八門的排行榜，無非都是以飛機大炮戰艦的數量來作評斷。但是，一國軍力的強弱，不能簡單看武器裝備的數量性能，而需從多個層面綜合評估，包括戰略方針、指導理論、指揮體系、技術戰術、經濟實力、工業基礎以及作戰士氣，都是重要因素。單純以武器裝備的先進與否來評價軍力水平，注定只會得出錯誤的結論。因此，必須清醒地認識到，對中國軍力的進步視而不見，認為今日中國面對美俄等強國仍如滿清時代般不堪一擊，固然是昧於現實的妄自菲薄；但以為中國軍力已經超俄趕美，甚至睥睨亞太，以至一些網上憤青動輒叫囂要教訓鄰國，也屬井底之蛙，盲目自大，並非真正愛國的表現。「國雖大，好戰必亡；天下雖安，忘戰必危。」古人的至理名言，值得認真記取。