中日關係乍暖還寒 歷史教訓值得記取

<轉載自2017年9月18日 明報 社評>

今天是「九一八事變」86周年紀念日，內地學校新學年亦開始使用記載「十四年抗戰」的新教科書。今年以來，中日關係出現了回暖迹象，早前北京舉辦了紀念中日邦交正常化45周年活動，是中國官方10年來首度舉辦紀念活動。但是，剛剛訪問中東的日本外相河野太郎仍在拉攏阿拉伯國家討論針對中國的「海洋安全」議題，而中俄海軍本周又將在日本海聯合軍演，針對日本的意味也很明顯。在在顯示中日關係的緩和基礎依然脆弱，說雙方關係回暖恐怕為時尚早。

1931年9月18日，駐東北瀋陽的日本關東軍藉口演習中有士兵失蹤，對東北軍發動突襲，短短4個多月內，128萬平方公里、相當於日本國土3.5倍的東北三省全部淪陷，3000多萬東北人民成了亡國奴。雖然張學良的東北軍實行不抵抗政策，退入關內，但以東北抗日義勇軍為代表的民間武裝仍然頑強抵抗日軍，這也是「十四年抗戰」的由來。

中日緩和各有所圖 基本因素仍無改變

今年雖然是內地官方教科書統稱「十四年抗戰」的第一年，但因並非「逢五逢十」整數年，紀念活動的規模不會很大。其實，兩個多月前的「七七盧溝橋事變」80周年，北京的紀念規模也不大，這種低調紀念與近期中日關係出現緩和迹象有關。

今年5月中旬，日方一改以往對中方「一帶一路」倡議的杯葛態度，派出執政自民黨幹事長二階俊博為首的代表團，出席北京的「一帶一路國際高峰論壇」，獲國家主席習近平接見，二階並當面向習近平轉交了日本首相安倍晉三的親筆信。5月底，國務委員楊潔篪和中共中央對外聯絡部長宋濤先後訪日，會晤日方高層官員，是近年來中日官方罕見的高層交往。在這些互動的鋪墊下，7月上旬，習近平與安倍藉德國漢堡出席G20峰會之機，近年來首度正式會晤。這場會晤與去年兩人在秘魯利馬APEC峰會時的非正式會晤不同，會場佈置了兩國國旗，官方並發布了會晤消息。兩人在會晤中都表達了改善雙邊關係的願望。事後有消息傳出，兩國領袖有望在明年中日和平友好條約簽署40周年之際實現中斷多年的互訪。

中日關係出現緩和的背景是，安倍因國內政策失利，個人又陷入醜聞，民望下跌，不得不改組內閣，改善與中韓兩國關係亦是其擺脫困境的手段；另一方面，因中共十九大召開在即，中方也正在外交維穩，希望維持周邊平靜；而面對特朗普上台後的美國經濟保護主義以及朝核危機升級，令中日兩國亦產生了共同的危機感。

不過，中日關係緩和的基礎依然脆弱，因為兩國產生矛盾的內外部因素並無改變。首先，作為日本外交的最大追隨對象，美國並未改變其亞太和南海外交政策中對華遏制和圍堵取向；其次，日本社會右傾化保守化趨勢，令對華的敵視的氛圍也未見改善；三是兩國政要的強硬態度依然故我，而這種強硬態度在兩國民粹大氣候下仍廣獲好評。

日方應該汲取教訓 真正回暖且看明年

上月在菲律賓馬尼拉的東盟峰會上，中國外長王毅與日本新任外相河野太郎初次會晤就針鋒相對，河野要中方在南海問題上「展現大國舉止」，王毅則反唇相稽指河野是在「完成美國的任務」；河野上周訪問中東並出席「日本阿拉伯政治對話」期間，仍不忘強調確保「航行自由」的重要；而中國方面，戰機和戰艦頻繁穿越日本多個海峽，更派出戰機繞飛紀伊半島。北京周前的中日邦交正常化紀念活動，雖是10年來首度舉辦，但規格降低。這些都顯示中日關係的回暖，仍是乍暖還寒。

回顧近年的中日交惡，日方往往是主動的一方，無論是小泉純一郎首相連番參拜靖國神社，導致內地反日示威潮，還是前東京都知事石原慎太郎發起的購買釣魚島運動，以及後續野田佳彥內閣將釣魚島「國有化」舉動，日方都是始作俑者，打破了現狀。不過，日方的上述行為搬起石頭砸自己的腳。「國有化」行動打破了中日過去40年間有關擱置釣魚島主權爭議的默契，5年來，中方公務船頻密進入釣島海域，連日本傳媒都承認，日方對釣島的實際控制已瀕於瓦解。因此，日本政府很應該殷鑑不遠，汲取教訓。

即將召開的中共十九大，將進一步鞏固習近平的領導核心地位，日本在野黨的長期積弱，也令安倍「一強」的地位短期內難以撼動，在此背景下，兩人既可以有充分理由堅持本身的強硬立場，也應該有自信打破目前的僵局。至於明年中日和平友好條約簽署40周年時的兩國關係，究竟是無可奈何花落去，還是柳暗花明又一村，世人且拭目以待。

Sino-Japanese relations remain chilly

TODAY is the 86th anniversary of the Mukden Incident. And new textbooks that say the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression lasted fourteen years have come into use this school year on the mainland. Since the beginning of this year, signs have emerged of Sino-Japanese relations warming again. The activities to mark the 45th anniversary of the normalisation of Sino-Japanese relations Beijing saw some time ago were the first the Chinese government had held in ten years. However, Japanese Foreign Minister Kono Taro (who has just wrapped up his visit to the Middle East) are still trying to have Arab countries discussing matters concerning "maritime security". What he is doing is directed at China. And China's navy and Russia's are to have a joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan, obviously meant to be aimed at Japan. There is every indication that the basis on which Sino-Japanese relations may ease remains vulnerable, and it is probably too early to talk about the relations between them warming again.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Japanese Foreign Minister Kono Taro (new) had a tit-for-tat conversation the first time they met (at the ASEAN summit held last month in Manila, the Philippines). Kono asked that China "display behaviour becoming a power" in relation to the South China Sea question, and Wang retorted that Kono was trying to "do his American task". Last week, when he visited the Middle East and attended there a Japanese-Arab political dialogue, he did not forget stressing the importance of ensuring "the freedom of navigation". As for China, its fighters and naval vessels have frequently passed through a number of Japanese straits. Beijing has even had Chinese fighters circling above the Kii Peninsula. Though activities were held several weeks ago in Beijing to mark the normalisation of Sino-Japanese relations, their standards were lowered. Indications are that Sino-Japanese relations remain chilly though they appear to be warming again.

Looking back on what has happened in recent years, one may say it is often Japan that does what may cause China and itself to fall foul of each other. It was Japan that took the initiative in altering the status quo when Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's repeated visits to Yasukuni Jinja provoked waves of anti-Japanese demonstrations on the mainland, when Ishihara Shintaro (who was Governor of Tokyo) started a campaign of buying the Diaoyu islets, and when the Noda Yoshihiko cabinet subsequently "nationalised" the Diaoyu islets. However, when Japan did those things, it was hoist by its own petard. The "nationalisation" broke the Sino-Japanese tacit agreement that the Diaoyu dispute be shelved, which had existed for four decades. Over the past five years China's government vessels have frequently entered the Diaoyu waters. Even the Japanese media have acknowledged that Japan's de facto control over the Diaoyu islets is about to collapse. The Japanese should really draw lessons from such recent events.

At the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (which is to take place soon), the position Xi Jinping holds as the leadership core will be further consolidated. In Japan, because the opposition has long remained weak, the position Abe Shinzo has as the "single strongest" man will remain hard to undermine in the near future. Against this backdrop, both should have every reason to stick to their respective tough positions and should have the confidence to break the present deadlock. The world may wait and see whether Sino-Japanese relations will be like flowers that will fall off whatever one may do or like a cloud that has a silver lining when the 40th anniversary of the signature of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship comes next year.

中日關係乍暖還寒 歷史教訓值得記取

今天是「九一八事變」86周年紀念日，內地學校新學年亦開始使用記載「十四年抗戰」的新教科書。今年以來，中日關係出現了回暖迹象，早前北京舉辦了紀念中日邦交正常化45周年活動，是中國官方10年來首度舉辦紀念活動。但是，剛剛訪問中東的日本外相河野太郎仍在拉攏阿拉伯國家討論針對中國的「海洋安全」議題，而中俄海軍本周又將在日本海聯合軍演，針對日本的意味也很明顯。在在顯示中日關係的緩和基礎依然脆弱，說雙方關係回暖恐怕為時尚早。

上月在菲律賓馬尼拉的東盟峰會上，中國外長王毅與日本新任外相河野太郎初次會晤就針鋒相對，河野要中方在南海問題上「展現大國舉止」，王毅則反唇相稽指河野是在「完成美國的任務」；河野上周訪問中東並出席「日本阿拉伯政治對話」期間，仍不忘強調確保「航行自由」的重要；而中國方面，戰機和戰艦頻繁穿越日本多個海峽，更派出戰機繞飛紀伊半島。北京周前的中日邦交正常化紀念活動，雖是10年來首度舉辦，但規格降低。這些都顯示中日關係的回暖，仍是乍暖還寒。

回顧近年的中日交惡，日方往往是主動的一方，無論是小泉純一郎首相連番參拜靖國神社，導致內地反日示威潮，還是前東京都知事石原慎太郎發起的購買釣魚島運動，以及後續野田佳彥內閣將釣魚島「國有化」舉動，日方都是始作俑者，打破了現狀。不過，日方的上述行為搬起石頭砸自己的腳。「國有化」行動打破了中日過去40年間有關擱置釣魚島主權爭議的默契，5年來，中方公務船頻密進入釣島海域，連日本傳媒都承認，日方對釣島的實際控制已瀕於瓦解。因此，日本政府很應該殷鑑不遠，汲取教訓。

即將召開的中共十九大，將進一步鞏固習近平的領導核心地位，日本在野黨的長期積弱，也令安倍「一強」的地位短期內難以撼動，在此背景下，兩人既可以有充分理由堅持本身的強硬立場，也應該有自信打破目前的僵局。至於明年中日和平友好條約簽署40周年時的兩國關係，究竟是無可奈何花落去，還是柳暗花明又一村，世人且拭目以待。