習拜會重啟中美關係 釐清紅線未掃除陰霾

<轉載自2022年11月16日 明報 社評>

印尼峇里二十國集團（G20）峰會，國家主席習近平與美國總統拜登面對面會談，成為國際焦點。過去數年，中美關係每况愈下，今夏美國眾議院議長佩洛西訪台，更令台海局勢空前緊張，北京中斷與華府多方面接觸合作。今次「習拜會」，可視為佩洛西訪台後，中美關係一次重啟。二人重申了各自原則及底線，同意採取切實行動，就外交、安全、經貿、氣候變化等領域，保持戰略溝通與聯繫，對於劃清紅線防止衝突，具有積極意義，然而拜登有關美中「激烈競爭」的表述，突顯美國的科技經貿打壓，不會緩和下來；美國政客放眼2024年大選，反華操作層出不窮，倘若不知收斂、踰越中方紅線，有可能令避免兩國衝突的努力前功盡廢。

中美多方面恢復溝通 台灣問題紅線說清楚

拜登2021年初上台以來，先後與習近平舉行過兩次視像峰會，至於面對面會談，今次才是第一次，兩人見面微笑握手，氣氛友好。習近平與拜登相識多時，兩人首次視像峰會，習近平還稱呼拜登為「老朋友」，反觀拜登上台未幾卻劃清界線，強調兩人「純粹公務往來，不是老朋友」，不過這次兩人峇里會晤，拜登作為主動邀約一方，表現相當熱情，除了伸出雙手緊握習近平右手，又主動提到兩人相識多年，雖有經常保持溝通，但始終代替不了面對面會晤，顯得對今次峰會充滿期待。

過去數年，中美關係急速惡化，新冷戰寒風勁吹，熱戰風險亦見增加，台海擦槍走火的可能，備受關注。白宮再三「切香腸」，掏空「一個中國」政策內涵，國會政客為了一己之私，操作台灣牌更是肆無忌憚。今年8月佩洛西訪台，挑起台海緊張局勢，破壞中美關係，政治衝擊波延續多時，近期總算逐步緩和下來，解放軍連串舉措重塑了「台海新常態」，適逢中共二十大及美國中期選舉相繼落幕，習近平作為中共中央總書記，步入第三個任期；拜登所屬的民主黨，逆境下保住參議院控制權，也為拜登注入政治強心針。佩洛西訪台重挫中美關係，今次習拜會正是合適時機，重啟（reset）中美關係。

習拜會歷時超過3小時，比原定時間為長，觀乎會後兩國政府反應，雙方似乎都對今次峰會感到滿意。根據中方說法，兩國元首會談達成6項「同意」，包括：1）兩國外交團隊保持戰略溝通，開展經常磋商；2）兩國財金團隊就宏觀經濟政策、經貿等問題開展對話協調；3）共同努力推動氣候變化大會取得成功，開展公共衛生、農業和糧食安全對話合作；4）用好中美聯合工作組，推動解決更多具體問題；5）中美人文交流十分重要，鼓勵擴大兩國各領域人員交往；6）兩國元首繼續保持經常聯繫。白宮則表示，美中同意恢復在應對跨國挑戰上的合作，包括氣候變化、衛生安全及糧食安全等。

重奠框架穩定關係 只怕華府政客作梗

元首峰會最大作用是引領兩國關係朝正確方向發展，實務工作留待相關部門跟進。這次習拜會，除了恢復因佩洛西訪台而中斷的氣候變化商討，以及兩國一些溝通合作，更重要是重訂中美關係發展方向，嘗試奠下一個有助兩國關係穩定的框架，避免嚴重衝突發生。拜登政府峰會前談期望，提到美中須弄清彼此紅線，盼跟中方找出一條可以「既競爭亦共存」的方程式。習近平在峰會上就此清晰回應：台灣問題是中國核心利益中的核心，也是中美關係政治基礎中的基礎，是「中美關係第一條不可踰越的紅線」。習近平表示，拜登多次說過不支持台獨，無意將台灣作為遏制中國的工具，希望美方將拜登承諾落到實處。有關說法既是申明立場，同時亦暗批過去一段時間，美方講一套做一套，沒有將承諾「落到實處」。倘若華府繼續玩兩面派以台制華，中美關係無法保持穩定。

世界百年不遇變局，拜登表明美國會繼續與中國激烈競爭，反映之前的貿易戰、金融戰、科技戰將持續，中美鬥爭摩擦迭起，倘若兩國關係下滑太快，容易出現不可預測事態。釐清紅線、設定底線，有助妥善管控分歧，穩定關係。習近平強調，不衝突、不對抗、和平共處，是中美最根本共同利益；拜登則表示，美中兩國激烈競爭，但不尋求衝突。這些大原則，可以成為新時期穩定中美關係的框架，至於這個框架是否穩固，則取決於履行承諾的誠意和決心。

今年初習拜視像會議，根據中方說法，美方作出了「四不一無意」承諾，即不尋求與中國打新冷戰、不尋求改變中國體制、不尋求通過強化同盟關係反對中國、不支持台獨、無意與中國發生衝突。今次峰會，有評論認為拜登所作承諾，加碼至「五不四無意」，包括不支持兩個中國或一中一台、無意尋求與中國脫鈎、無意圍堵中國、無意阻撓中國經濟發展，不過美方如何理解，又是另一回事，近年事態發展亦令人懷疑美方這類承諾有多可信。美國中期選舉過去，2024年大選又來，華府政客為爭取支持，操作反華牌樂此不疲；台灣未來兩年政局如何變化，同樣惹人關注。習拜會後，中美關係似見緩和，能夠維持多久，仍是一大疑問。

The Reset of Sino-US Relations

At the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a face-to-face meeting with US president Joe Biden, which has become an international focus. Over the past few years, there has been a downward spiral in Sino-US relations. This "Xi-Biden summit" could be seen as a reset of the relationship between the two countries. The two reiterated their respective principles and bottom lines and agreed to maintain strategic communication and contact in areas such as diplomacy, security, economy and trade and climate change. This is of positive significance for the prevention of conflict by drawing a red line. However, Biden's remarks about the "vigorous competition" between the US and China highlight that Washington will not ease up on its suppression of China's technology and economy and trade. US politicians eyeing the 2024 general elections have been inexhaustible in playing the anti-China card. If they do not know how to exercise restraint and cross Beijing's red line, all the previous efforts made to avoid conflict between the two countries may go down the drain.

Over the past few years, Sino-US relations have deteriorated rapidly, and a new Cold War is beckoning. In August this year, US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, stirring up tension across the Taiwan Strait and sabotaging Sino-US relations. Just as the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the US midterm elections have both come to an end, this "Xi-Biden summit" comes exactly at an opportune time to reset Sino-US relations.

The "Xi-Biden summit" lasted over three hours, which was longer than originally planned. Judging from the responses of the two governments after the meeting, both sides seem to be satisfied with the summit. According to China, the two leaders reached six "agreements" during the talk. They include: 1) The diplomatic teams of the two countries will maintain strategic communication and carry out regular consultations; 2) The financial and economic and trade teams of the two countries will conduct communication and coordination on issues such as macroeconomic policies and economic and trade ties; 3) They will work together to facilitate the success of the climate change conference and launch cooperative dialogues on public health, agriculture and food security; 4) The Sino-US joint working group will be fully utilised to help resolve more specific issues; 5) People-to-people exchanges between China and the US are very important, and the expansion of personnel exchanges in various fields between the two countries will be encouraged; 6) The two leaders will continue to maintain frequent contact. Meanwhile, the White House stated that the US and China agreed to resume cooperation on transnational challenges like climate change, health security and food security.

Prior to the summit, the Biden administration talked about its expectations and mentioned that the US and China have to be clear about each other's red lines and that it hopes to find a formula through which the two countries can "both compete and coexist". Xi gave a clear reply to this at the summit —the Taiwan issue is at the very core of China's core interests and it is also the bedrock of the political foundation of Sino-US relations. It is "the first red line that must not be crossed in Sino-US relations".

Clarifying red lines and establishing bottom lines can help properly manage differences and stabilise relationships. Xi stressed that it is in the mutual and fundamental interests of the two countries to avoid conflict and confrontation and coexist peacefully; while Biden said that the US will compete vigorously with China but will not seek conflict. These grand principles can become the framework for stabilising Sino-US relations in the new era. As for whether the framework is solid, it depends on the sincerity and determination of the two sides in fulfilling the promises.

習拜會重啟中美關係 釐清紅線未掃除陰霾

印尼峇里二十國集團（G20）峰會，國家主席習近平與美國總統拜登面對面會談，成為國際焦點。過去數年，中美關係每况愈下，今次「習拜會」，可視為中美關係一次重啟。二人重申了各自原則及底線，同意就外交、安全、經貿、氣候變化等領域，保持戰略溝通與聯繫，對於劃清紅線防止衝突，具有積極意義，然而拜登有關美中「激烈競爭」的表述，突顯美國的科技經貿打壓，不會緩和下來；美國政客放眼2024年大選，反華操作層出不窮，倘若不知收斂、踰越中方紅線，有可能令避免兩國衝突的努力前功盡廢。

過去數年，中美關係急速惡化，新冷戰寒風勁吹。今年8月美國眾議院議長佩洛西訪台，挑起台海緊張局勢，破壞中美關係。適逢中共二十大及美國中期選舉相繼落幕，今次習拜會正是合適時機，重啟（reset）中美關係。

習拜會歷時超過3小時，比原定時間為長，觀乎會後兩國政府反應，雙方似乎都對今次峰會感到滿意。根據中方說法，兩國元首會談達成6項「同意」，包括：1）兩國外交團隊保持戰略溝通，開展經常磋商；2）兩國財金團隊就宏觀經濟政策、經貿等問題開展對話協調；3）共同努力推動氣候變化大會取得成功，開展公共衛生、農業和糧食安全對話合作；4）用好中美聯合工作組，推動解決更多具體問題；5）中美人文交流十分重要，鼓勵擴大兩國各領域人員交往；6）兩國元首繼續保持經常聯繫。白宮則表示，美中同意恢復在應對跨國挑戰上的合作，包括氣候變化、衛生安全及糧食安全等。

拜登政府峰會前談期望，提到美中須弄清彼此紅線，盼跟中方找出一條可以「既競爭亦共存」的方程式。習近平在峰會上就此清晰回應：台灣問題是中國核心利益中的核心，也是中美關係政治基礎中的基礎，是「中美關係第一條不可踰越的紅線」。

釐清紅線、設定底線，有助妥善管控分歧，穩定關係。習近平強調，不衝突、不對抗、和平共處，是中美最根本共同利益；拜登則表示，美中兩國激烈競爭，但不尋求衝突。這些大原則，可以成為新時期穩定中美關係的框架，至於這個框架是否穩固，則取決於履行承諾的誠意和決心。