2023年5月28日 星期日

國產飛機衝上雲霄 關鍵零件仍然受制

<轉載自2023529 明報 社評>

國產中型飛機商業飛行處女航成功,這是又一次以國之大器證明中國崛起,國人振奮,國際關注。從立項到首飛成功,歷經16年,C919中型飛機擁有自主知識產權,但按比例算目前仍有約四成關鍵部件依賴外國廠家供應,首飛成功後從此邁向全面國產化,相信在研製方面很快會取得成果,並且向設計和研製更大的飛機進發。自主研發關鍵技術這條路,是必要而且可以成功的,其他產業也要查漏補缺。

37年前外國飛機「施捨」嵌零件 研製國產飛機因此「耽誤」21

目前在陸上穿梭的高鐵,技術領先全球,但在960多萬平方公里的上空,頻繁往來的大小飛機,絕大部分是來自美國的波音和歐洲的空中巴士,何時能夠實現國產飛機夢,在國人心中縈繞數十年。國產飛機夢,是從「乞求人家施捨」一些無關痛癢的零部件裝嵌開始,目前已經跟波音合併的道格拉斯航空公司,1986年給予上海裝嵌一個小零部件,及後再爭取到更多零部件的裝嵌,以及飛機座椅等生產合格證,但總的產值,不及一部飛機賣價的零頭。2008年空中巴士在天津設廠裝嵌整部飛機,今年法國總統馬克龍訪華,宣布成立第二條組裝生產線,但都是裝嵌或生產小部件而已。歐美公司願意讓出飛機製造的一小部分給中國,是中國航空市場力量從形成到逐步擴大,叫價能力愈強的結果。

一個硬幣有兩面,外國航空公司逐步增加讓出更多生產程序給中國,反而令航空業的一些人「沾沾自喜」,繼續相信造飛機不如買飛機,忘記了自主研發才是「硬道理」。從頭開始造飛機確實「本大利小」,即使現在投入商業運營的C919飛機,賣價只及美歐同類產品的一半,而且成本大部分用於支付購買關鍵部件,自主研發的飛機賺的仍然是「蠅頭小利」。然而,國產飛機商飛成功,已經令到兩家壟斷國際市場的飛機製造商憂慮,即使中國飛機暫時還不能搶佔國際市場,中國不買或者大量少買外國飛機,這兩家飛機製造商的產量都會大幅滑落,2018年波音的年度收入,22%來自中國市場,2019年插水下跌到7%2022年更跌到無足輕重的0.25%,這是因為中美貿易戰令訂單轉投空中巴士,而今後國產飛機能夠替代外國同類型產品,歐美飛機製造商在中國市場所佔份額,逐步下降勢必成趨勢,而國產飛機製造商的利潤就會逐步擴大。

實現國產飛機夢得來不易,過去仿照蘇聯機種搞過「運級」短途及中短途運輸機,由於技術不過關,還釀成過空難而全面叫停。從此要不要研發大飛機爭論不絕,即使要搞,是先研發部件還是先設計大飛機,也有爭議,最後是不可能等到所有零部件都能夠國產才開始搞大飛機的一方佔上風,才於2007年下大決心搞大飛機,投入資源去做設計,並且在力所能及範圍內造自己的零部件,技術不過關的先用外國零件,大飛機批量投入市場,自然能夠帶動關鍵零件的研發與生產,目前的消息稱,國產大飛機發動機,將在幾年內研製成功,到時就不用再假手於人。

關鍵技術仍假手於人 國產發動機不日有成

C919國產飛機目前仍然有四成關鍵部件依賴外國供應( 按價格計則佔約六成),包括發動機、電傳、飛控、燃料液壓系統等,雖然看不到外國供應商會因為地緣政治因素影響供應穩定性,因為在商言商,C919飛機產量愈高他們生意愈多,而且深信以中國的研發能力,早晚能研製出替代產品,供應商能賺錢有一筆算一筆;然而,受制於人始終是一個不能迴避的問題,無論依靠的是跟中國有潛在矛盾的歐美國家,還是相對友好的俄羅斯。

C919150180個座位的中型飛機(內地稱150個座位以上的為大飛機,國際則慣稱300座位以上為大飛機),目前正在研發階段的是300座的遠程C929,原來是跟俄羅斯合作研製,畢竟俄羅斯航天技術底子深厚,有些強項可以彌補中國不足,然而,由於俄羅斯跟西方關係惡化,即使研發成功,俄羅斯也不可能向歐洲銷售而從中獲利,於是退出合作,國之大器借助外國力量始終是靠不住的,這個硬道理在飛機製造如此,在其他支柱產業亦如是。

昨天C919首航上海與北京之間,報道說訂票量十分可觀,說明國人以腳投票,用行動支持國產飛機。目前C919的訂單已經超過1000架,其中34架來自外國,總產值達到5000億元人民幣,市場潛力無限。國產飛機取得外國適航證,關鍵因素是安全指標,C919商業運作時間愈長愈有利,其他國產飛機質量也可佐證。目前已經交付使用100架的80ARJ21國產支線飛機,已經商業運行多年,去年還首次按訂單交付印尼一架,相信國內國際訂單還會陸續有來。

國產中小型飛機翱翔祖國領空,將來會愈來愈多,更大型的飛機飛越五大洲,也將可期。國產飛機夢是中華復興夢的一部分,值得引以為傲,國家應該投入更大力量,成就科研人員研發其他國之大器的關鍵技術,用實在的科技力量說明中國崛起能夠造福國人,國際共享。

China's Domestically Produced Aircraft Has Soared into The Sky

China's domestically produced medium-sized aircraft has made a successful commercial maiden flight. Once again, a fundamental instrument of national importance has lent credence to the rise of China.

Currently, China is leading the world in terms of the technology of high-speed trains shuttling on land. However, most of the large and small aircraft frequently flying in the sky of over 9.6 million square kilometres are either from the US's Boeing or Europe's Airbus. When the dream of China making its own aircraft can come true is something that has lingered in the hearts of the Chinese people for decades.

The dream of domestically produced aircraft started with China "begging" for some unimportant parts from others to assemble. Douglas Aircraft Company, which has now merged with Boeing, used to give Shanghai a small component to assemble in 1986. Afterwards, China was able to secure more parts to assemble, as well as aircraft seats and other production certificates. However, the total output value was less than a fraction of the selling price of an aircraft.

In 2008, Airbus set up a factory in Tianjin for the assembly of the entire aircraft. This year, French President Emmanuel Macron visited China and announced the establishment of a second assembly line, but only for assembling or producing small parts. The willingness of European and American companies to transfer a small part of aircraft manufacturing to China is the result of the gradual expansion of China's aviation market power and its rising bargaining power.

There are two sides of the same coin. When foreign airlines gradually expand their transfer of production processes to China, some people in the aviation industry are self-congratulatory, continuing to believe that it is better to buy aircraft than to build aircraft. They have forgotten that independent research and development is the name of the game. Building an aircraft from scratch is indeed a high-cost and low-profit business. Even the C919 aircraft, which is now in commercial operation, is only 80% to 90% of the price of similar products in the US and Europe. Furthermore, most of the cost was for the purchase of key components. Profits from domestically developing aircraft are still tiny.

However, the success of China's domestically produced commercial aircraft has worried the two aircraft manufacturers, who have a monopoly in the international market. Even if Chinese airplanes are not yet able to gain a share in the international market, the fact that China will no longer buy — or buy massively lower numbers of — foreign airplanes will cause a significant drop in the output of these two aircraft manufacturers. In 2018, 22% of Boeing's annual revenue came from the Chinese market. In 2019, it plummeted to 7%. In 2022, it even fell to an insignificant 0.25%. This has been due to the Sino-US trade war, which caused Chinese orders to shift to Airbus. As domestically produced aircraft can replace foreign products of the same type, the share of European and American aircraft manufacturers in the Chinese market is expected to decline gradually.

There will be more and more domestically produced small and medium-sized aircraft flying in the airspace of China in the future. Larger aircraft cruising across the five continents can also be expected. The dream of domestically manufactured aircraft is part of the dream of China's revival, which is a matter of pride. China should devote more power in allowing scientific research personnel to develop key technologies for the nation's other fundamental instruments. With genuine technological prowess, it will show that China's rise can benefit its people and its fruit can be shared by the global community.

國產飛機衝上雲霄 關鍵零件仍然受制

國產中型飛機商業飛行處女航成功,這是又一次以國之大器證明中國崛起。

目前在陸上穿梭的高鐵,技術領先全球,但在960多萬平方公里的上空,頻繁往來的大小飛機,絕大部分是來自美國的波音和歐洲的空中巴士,何時能夠實現國產飛機夢,在國人心中縈繞數十年。

國產飛機夢,是從「乞求人家施捨」一些無關痛癢的零部件裝嵌開始,目前已經跟波音合併的道格拉斯航空公司,1986年給予上海裝嵌一個小零部件,及後再爭取到更多零部件的裝嵌,以及飛機座椅等生產合格證,但總的產值,不及一部飛機賣價的零頭。

2008年空中巴士在天津設廠裝嵌整部飛機,今年法國總統馬克龍訪華,宣布成立第二條組裝生產線,但都是裝嵌或生產小部件而已。歐美公司願意讓出飛機製造的一小部分給中國,是中國航空市場力量從形成到逐步擴大,叫價能力愈強的結果。

一個硬幣有兩面,外國航空公司逐步增加讓出更多生產程序給中國,反而令航空業的一些人「沾沾自喜」,繼續相信造飛機不如買飛機,忘記了自主研發才是「硬道理」。從頭開始造飛機確實「本大利小」,即使現在投入商業運營的C919飛機,賣價只及美歐同類產品的八九成,而且成本大部分用於支付購買關鍵部件,自主研發的飛機賺的仍然是「蠅頭小利」。

然而,國產飛機商飛成功,已經令到兩家壟斷國際市場的飛機製造商憂慮,即使中國飛機暫時還不能搶佔國際市場,中國不買或者大量少買外國飛機,這兩家飛機製造商的產量都會大幅滑落,2018年波音的年度收入,22%來自中國市場,2019年插水下跌到7%2022年更跌到無足輕重的0.25%,這是因為中美貿易戰令訂單轉投空中巴士,而今後國產飛機能夠替代外國同類型產品,歐美飛機製造商在中國市場所佔份額,逐步下降勢必成趨勢。

國產中小型飛機翱翔祖國領空,將來會愈來愈多,更大型的飛機飛越五大洲,也將可期。國產飛機夢是中華復興夢的一部分,值得引以為傲,國家應該投入更大力量,成就科研人員研發其他國之大器的關鍵技術,用實在的科技力量說明中國崛起能夠造福國人,國際共享。

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