<轉載自2022年8月4日 明報 社評>
佩洛西訪台不足24小時,由此引發的衝擊波,卻對台海局勢以至中美關係帶來重大影響。儘管佩洛西和白宮皆揚言,美國支持「維持現狀」,但從北京角度,佩洛西執意訪台挑釁、白宮變相默許,本身就是重大改變,將台海問題推向了新局面,為了遏制台獨,中方必須以強而有力行動,回應這一變化,解放軍史無前例包圍台灣軍演是第一步。北京要以實際行動演示,解放軍可以迅速軍事封鎖台灣,切斷外國對台灣的軍事支援,台海擦槍走火風險,短期無可避免升高;以往美台主張的所謂「台海中線」,現實上將徹底消失。佩洛西訪台,摧毁了中美僅餘的互信,兩國博弈鬥爭,手段有可能變得愈硬愈狠,台灣是真正輸家,亞太區亦將變得更不穩定。
佩洛西任性打破現狀 京反制重塑台海格局
美國眾議院議長佩洛西與台灣領導人蔡英文會晤,強調「美國承諾跟台灣站在一起」,蔡英文則形容佩洛西是「台灣最堅定的友人」。在北京,外交部嚴辭抨擊佩洛西嘩眾取寵為個人,遭殃受害的卻是中美關係,以及地區和平穩定。國務委員兼外長王毅則稱,美國不要幻想阻撓中國統一大業,「玩火者絕對沒有好下場,犯我中華者必將受到懲處」。
佩洛西無視中方警告,不理美國國內反對意見和友好國家忠告,執意訪台,外界一度擔心佩洛西強行闖關,觸發中美軍事衝突;一些內地網民和輿論則主張,如有必要,解放軍戰機應予攔阻。最終佩洛西專機前晚順利降落台北,根據美方說法,解放軍沒有派戰機企圖逼近專機,美軍也只是在附近戒備,沒有派戰機護航。
北京外交手段阻不了佩洛西,有內地網民嫌當局不夠強硬,然而大國做大事,頭腦要冷靜,不應該民粹先行,不顧後果。說到底,佩洛西是美國第三號政治人物,軍事攔截一旦出了差錯,搞出人命,真的可以引發戰爭。佩洛西專機由大馬起機,刻意繞道避開南海,飛經印尼和菲律賓上空赴台,其間中美軍方都保持低調審慎,反映兩國不想冒上開戰風險。從這一角度看,兩軍其實互有忌憚,談不上誰怕了誰。
中美新冷戰,佩洛西訪台是首場重大危機,兩國避開了第一個有可能觸發軍事衝突的「撞擊點」,不代表危機已過。一石激起千重浪,佩洛西訪台所挑起的衝擊波,仍有可能引發危險連鎖效應。雖然美方堅稱支持維持台海現狀,但對北京而言,佩洛西如此衝擊「一中」原則,本身已是顛覆現狀,助長台獨氣焰,中方若不以實際行動重塑台海格局、控制形勢,就是真的在這場「鬥大膽博弈」中示弱。
佩洛西訪台前夕,美國國家安全委員會發言人柯比表示,中方似乎準備調整定位,在未來數天以至更長時間,在台海採取進一步行動;《華盛頓郵報》一篇評論文章則透露,美國一些官員關注北京可能趁今次機會,採取行動「改變台海現狀」。有關說法,不過是從美方視角,說出中方將在台海採取的「重塑格局」反制部署。解放軍首次對台灣包圍式軍演,看來正是中方行動的第一步,它的作用不止是震懾台獨,還有可能對台海格局帶來質變。
局勢緊張台灣是輸家 中美關係破壞難彌補
今次包圍式軍演,不僅比1996年台海危機時的實彈演習更大規模,更關鍵是它實質演示着如何封鎖台灣、如何迅速切斷台獨軍事外援。所謂「台海中線」一直只是美台主張,解放軍以往雖無穿越,但北京從不承認「中線」存在。今天起的包圍式軍演,解放軍活動範圍,距離基隆等城市很近,已無什麼「中線」可言。解放軍這次包圍式軍演,一連四天,根據台媒報道,台灣天然氣補給運輸已可能受影響,部分航班更要取消。倘若解放軍臨時決定延長軍演,甚或將類似軍演「定期化」,將對台北當局構成很大壓力。
當然,台軍有可能對解放軍封鎖式演練作出反應,但這一定增加擦槍走火風險,屆時美日軍方有何反應或行動,難以逆料,唯一肯定的是,由佩洛西訪台所引起的台海格局震盪,短期不會停下來,格局重塑本身便意味着激烈鬥爭,台海不穩將持續一段時間,甚至愈演愈烈。對民進黨和綠營而言,佩洛西來訪,有助提高台灣在國際社會曝光、鼓勵更多「友好國家」政客仿效,至於加強美台聯繫合作方面,實質幫助有多大,仍需時間觀察;台海局勢緊張,民進黨可藉「大陸文攻武嚇」拉票,但台灣淪為中美重點角力場,社會經濟各方面勢必當災,從這一點而言,台灣其實是大輸家。
對佩洛西而言,訪問台灣滿足了她歷史留名心願,至於對美國民主黨中期選舉有多少幫助,則較難估計。儘管反華在美國有政治市場,惟當下一般選民相信更關心高通脹,經濟搞不好,民主黨選情難言樂觀。白宮部分官員主張撤去對華關稅紓緩通脹,佩洛西訪台,或可幫拜登政府一把,就算撤銷關稅也不怕共和黨指控對華軟弱,但佩洛西的任性,已對中美關係造成難以彌補的破壞,就算美方撤銷關稅,北京也不會視為「善意」。今次事件刺激內地民族主義情緒,北京對台對美不會亦不能放軟,中美脫鈎有可能加快,武統的可能性,亦一定比之前高。縱然今次中美未有正面硬撼,但如果繼續朝現時方向走下去,恐怕終有一天將發生激烈碰撞。
Changes to the Taiwan
Strait order
Nancy Pelosi's visit to
Taiwan lasted less than 24 hours. The shock waves it has sent, however, will
have profound ramifications for the situation in the Taiwan Strait and Sino-US
relations.
US House Speaker Nancy
Pelosi met with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen, emphasising that the US is
committed to standing with Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen described Pelosi as
"Taiwan's most devoted friend". In Beijing, the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs sternly criticised Pelosi for her ''self-interested grandstanding which
harmed Sino-US relations and regional peace and stability''. China's State
Councillor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that the US should not imagine
that it could stand in the way of China's great cause of reunification,
threatening that ''those who play with fire will not end well, and those who
offend China will be punished''.
In defiance of China's
warnings and paying no regard to those who were against the visit in the US and
the earnest advice of some US-friendly countries, Pelosi remained resolute in
visiting Taiwan. At one point, observers were worried that Pelosi's forceful
visit would trigger military conflicts between China and the US. Some netizens
and commentators in mainland China, meanwhile, argued that fighter planes from
the People's Liberation Army should intercept Pelosi's plane if necessary. In
the end, Pelosi's special plane landed in Taipei successfully the night before
last (2 August). According to the US, the People's Liberation Army did not send
fighter planes to try to approach the special plane, and the US military was
only on standby nearby and did not send fighter planes to escort Pelosi's
plane.
Beijing's diplomatic
manoeuvre has failed to prevent Pelosi's visit. Some mainland netizens think
the authorities have not been tough enough. However, when great powers do big
things, a cool head is needed. Populism should not be the guiding principle
with no consideration for the consequences. After all, Pelosi is the third most
important political figure in the US. If a military interception goes wrong and
casualties are caused, a war can ensue. After taking off from Malaysia,
Pelosi's special plane deliberately took a detour to avoid the South China Sea.
It flew to Taiwan by crossing into the airspace of Indonesia and the
Philippines. During the flight, both the China and US military kept a low
profile and exercised prudence, showing that neither country wanted to risk
war. From this point of view, the two armies are actually wary of each other,
and it is impossible to say who is afraid of who.
In the new Cold War
between China and the US, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is the first major crisis.
The two countries avoided the first "impact point" that could have
triggered a military conflict, but it does not mean that the crisis is over.
''One stone can cause a thousand waves,'' as the saying goes. It is still
possible for the shock waves caused by Pelosi's visit to Taiwan to trigger a
dangerous chain effect.
On the eve of Pelosi's
visit to Taiwan, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that
''China appeared to be positioning itself to potentially take further steps in
the coming days and perhaps over longer time horizons." An opinion piece
in the Washington Post reveals that some US officials are concerned that
Beijing may take this opportunity to "change the status quo in the Taiwan
Strait". Such comments have all been made from the US's perspective, and
what has been said is that China will take countermeasures to "reshape the
order" in the Taiwan Strait. The PLA's first encirclement of Taiwan in a
military exercise seems to be the first step in China's actions aimed at not
only deterring Taiwan independence but also bringing about qualitative changes
in the order of the Taiwan Strait.
解放軍演練鎖島 台海格局起變化
佩洛西訪台不足24小時,由此引發的衝擊波,卻對台海局勢以至中美關係帶來重大影響。
美國眾議院議長佩洛西與台灣領導人蔡英文會晤,強調美國承諾跟台灣站在一起,蔡英文則形容佩洛西是「台灣最堅定的友人」。在北京,外交部嚴辭抨擊佩洛西嘩眾取寵為個人,遭殃受害的卻是中美關係,以及地區和平穩定。國務委員兼外長王毅則稱,美國不要幻想阻撓中國統一大業,「玩火者絕對沒有好下場,犯我中華者必將受到懲處」。
佩洛西無視中方警告,不理美國國內反對意見和友好國家忠告,執意訪台,外界一度擔心佩洛西強行闖關,觸發中美軍事衝突;一些內地網民和輿論則主張,如有必要,解放軍戰機應予攔阻。最終佩洛西專機前晚順利降落台北,根據美方說法,解放軍沒有派戰機企圖逼近專機,美軍也只是在附近戒備,沒有派戰機護航。
北京外交手段阻不了佩洛西,有內地網民嫌當局不夠強硬,然而大國做大事,頭腦要冷靜,不應該民粹先行,不顧後果。說到底,佩洛西是美國第三號政治人物,軍事攔截一旦出了差錯,搞出人命,真的可以引發戰爭。佩洛西專機由大馬起機,刻意繞道避開南海,飛經印尼和菲律賓上空赴台,其間中美軍方都保持低調審慎,反映兩國不想冒上開戰風險。從這一角度看,兩軍其實互有忌憚,談不上誰怕了誰。
中美新冷戰,佩洛西訪台是首場重大危機,兩國避開了第一個有可能觸發軍事衝突的「撞擊點」,不代表危機已過。一石激起千重浪,佩洛西訪台所挑起的衝擊波,仍有可能引發危險連鎖效應。
佩洛西訪台前夕,美國國家安全委員會發言人柯比表示,中方似乎準備調整定位,在未來數天以至更長時間,在台海採取進一步行動;《華盛頓郵報》一篇評論文章則透露,美國一些官員關注北京可能趁今次機會,採取行動「改變台海現狀」。有關說法,不過是從美方視角,說出中方將在台海採取的「重塑格局」反制部署。解放軍首次對台灣包圍式軍演,看來正是中方行動的第一步,它的作用不止是震懾台獨,還有可能對台海格局帶來質變。