<轉載自2021年4月19日 明報 社評>
日本首相菅義偉訪問美國,在聯合聲明中罕有地提到台灣,這是中日建交以來日本首次有此舉動,足見日本是鐵了心要抱美國大腿對抗中國。日本一直以來在中國與美國之間小心翼翼,這次重大偏離其一貫做法,無論是高估了美國擔負日本保護神的角色,還是低估了中國捍衛主權的決心,有一點估計不到的是,中國將會採取「圍點打援」的戰術,先將日本壓下去,才轉過頭來考慮是否跟美國撕破臉皮。日本押錯寶的結果,肯定會是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。
日本要依仗美國打台灣牌,有迹可循。上月在日本舉行的日美外長防長2+2會談聯合聲明中,已經提到「台灣海峽和平穩定之重要」。美國要打台灣牌,拉攏盟友搞共同進退,不足為奇,惟這次菅義偉訪美,日美聯合聲明中老調重彈,雖然聲明中加了一句:「鼓勵和平解決兩岸問題」,在強硬的對抗中國聲音中搞點「和稀泥」,有消息指這句話是日本主動提出的,但也不減日本下了決心要「冒中國之大不韙」的嫌疑。
日本處美中夾縫 從來都看風使舵
日本身處亞洲,是中國的近鄰,但外交部官員掛在嘴邊的一句話是,一個強大的中國籠罩着日本,美國雖然離日本很遠,但日本只有依靠美國跟中國對抗,才能求得安身。日本在美國與中國之間搞兩面三刀,幾十年來看風使舵,若能從中國獲得更多好處,就拉開跟美國的距離,當美國的拉扯力大一些,就借力打力向中國施壓。但歸根結柢是甘願屈從美國力量,試圖以此抗衡中國。
中國開放改革幾十年,日本從中國市場中獲得巨大利益,即使被美國強加的日圓升值而導致經濟沉淪,還可以從日中經貿合作中得以自身發展,去年疫情導致全球經濟萎縮,日本對全球出口唯一獲得正增長的國家是中國,使得中國再次成為日本的最大貿易伙伴。但令日本揮之不去的是釣魚島主權問題,日本一直要求美國將釣魚島納入日美安保條約的保護範圍,終於獲得拜登政府首肯,從而加劇了日本將美國和中國的鐘擺倒向美國一方。
日本屈從美國抗衡中國,二戰後就沒有變過,這或許是一個島國下意識的選擇,君子不度小人之腹。這次日美聯合聲明,宣稱要聯合發展5G6G,跟中國比一日長短,這也無可厚非,兩個處於5G競爭劣勢的國家,要聯手追趕中國,鹿死誰手,市場自會分曉。但外交上的準則與慣例,就是兩國合作不會針對第三國,起碼牌面上不會,這次美日聯合聲明點名中國,並且將焦點放在中國最敏感的台灣問題上,明顯不過的就是要叫板。
1972年中日建交,中國可以放棄對日本的戰爭賠償要求,但要求日本必須承認中國對台灣的主權,日本表示充分理解和尊重中國的這一立場。幾十年來,日本跟中國不時有各種各樣的矛盾,但都不敢明目張膽的打台灣牌,這次改弦更張,顯然是因為看到美國對中國實施遏制的決心,日本徹底倒向美國,是押上了「國本」,然則,日本為何賭得這麽大?日本最希望成為「正常國家」,美國於此對日本是否有承諾?2+2聯合聲明,已經寫明日本會「加强軍力」,加强什麽軍力?是否包括美國默許日本「將發展非常規軍力」?都值得關注。
中美或長時間鬥而不破 對日實施反制並無不可
中國跟美國的競爭,是長期和多方面的,什麼時候在哪些方面正面衝突或者忍而不發,既有策略性的考慮,也有戰術上的套路,但有一點必須搞清楚,中國人熟知孫子兵法,其中圍魏救趙一計後來演變成圍點打援,即是說要攻靶心,可以先打擊靶心外圍的力量。中美之間何時正面交鋒,難以逆料,但打擊美國要拉攏的「小弟」,或許把握與效果都會大一些。
這種戰術近期也不乏例子,澳洲要加盟美國在亞洲地區內對抗中國,馬上受到中國禁買煤炭、鐵礦石、紅酒等等的「制裁」。這次日本不但主辦了印太地區的四方會談,顯示了響應美國的印太地區戰略部署,還捅破了中國最敏感的議題,打台灣牌,可以估計,中國對日本的反制措施,一定不會少。中國對美國可能在一時間不會改變「鬥而不破」的戰略方針,但對日本,為何不可以實施圍點打援的戰術呢?
一般來說,你做初一,我做十五,外交上肯定也會「禮尚往來」,但日本畢竟是中國鄰近的大國,日本是中國第四大貿易伙伴,中國是日本最大貿易伙伴,實施貿易制裁所帶來的惡果,是雙方也不可以承受的,退一步海闊天空,只要日本改弦更張,也並非沒有迴旋的餘地。要求日本放棄以美國為靠山的根本外交政策,或者期望日本放棄對釣魚島主權的爭奪,同樣是不切實際的,但要日本認清現實,中國跟美國的競爭,一定不會在短時間內分出高下,這不是誇誇其談,日本根本毋須在這個時候把賭注全押在美國一方,恐怕這也會得到日本內部一些人的贊同,要是日本政壇連這一點也掩耳盜鈴,最後才認識到中國人保衛家園的決心,就為時晚也。
US-Japan alliance
Japanese Prime Minister
Yoshihide Suga has paid a visit to the United States. The ''Joint Leaders'
Statement'' brings up Taiwan, which is rare. This is the first such move by
Japan since the establishment of Sino-Japanese relations, which clearly shows
that Japan is utterly determined to confront China on the US's coat-tails.
There were early hints
that Japan might rely on the United States to play the Taiwan card. In the
joint statement of the 2+2 talks held in Japan last month between the two
countries' foreign and defence ministers, ''the importance of peace and
stability in the Taiwan Strait'' was already mentioned.
This time, in the
Japan-US joint statement, the two countries have declared that they will
jointly develop 5G and 6G so as to compete actively with China. This cannot be
faulted. They are at a disadvantage in the 5G race, and the final result of
their joint efforts to play catch up with China will surely be determined by
the market. However, according to diplomatic norms and established practice,
cooperation between two countries should not target a third one, at least not
openly. This time the US-Japan joint statement names China and focuses on
Taiwan, China's most sensitive issue, which is a clear provocation.
In 1972, when China and
Japan established diplomatic relations, China said it could give up its claim
for war reparations against Japan, but Japan must recognise China's sovereignty
over Taiwan. Back then Japan said that it fully understood and respected China's
stance. Over the past decades, tensions of all kinds have arisen from time to
time between Japan and China, but Japan has not dared to play the Taiwan card
blatantly. Obviously, that Japan has made the switch is because it realised the
US's determination to contain China. It has completely swung to the US and
gambled its foundations as a nation on that. Why has it made such a large bet?
Japan has wanted most of all to become a ''normal country''. Is the US
committed to that? As already clearly mentioned in the 2+2 joint statement,
Japan will ''enhance its capabilities to bolster national defence''. What kind
of ''capabilities'' will it enhance? Does it include the US's acquiescence to
Japan's development of unconventional military power? All this merits
attention.
The Sino-US rivalry is
long-term and multi-faceted. When and in which areas the two countries will
confront or tolerate each other is a matter of strategic considerations as well
as tactics. But one thing must be clear. The Chinese are familiar with the
Thirty-Six Stratagems, from which they adopted the ''Besiege Wei and rescue
Zhao'' tactic and used it to encircle their arch-enemies by luring and
attacking their reinforcements, which means zeroing in on the bull's-eye on a
target by first striking at the outer circles. It is hard to predict when China
and the US will compete head-to-head with each other, but hitting the ''little
brother'' that the US wants to woo may be more promising and effective.
There is no shortage of
recent examples of this tactic. Australia wanted to join the US in the fight
against China in Asia. Then China immediately sanctioned it by not buying its
coal, red wine, etc. This time Japan has not only hosted the four-party talks
in the Indo-Pacific region, which show that it has moved into alignment with
the US's strategic deployment in the region, but has also cracked the veneer of
not touching upon China's most sensitive issue by playing the Taiwan card. It
is foreseeable that China's countermeasures against Japan will definitely be
numerous. For the time being, China may not change its strategy of ''competing
with the US without falling out with it''. But when it comes to Japan, why can
China not use the tactics of encirclement of the arch-enemy and attacking the reinforcements?
美日聯手打台灣牌 中國先抗日後禦美
日本首相菅義偉訪問美國,在聯合聲明中罕有地提到台灣,這是中日建交以來日本首次有此舉動,足見日本是鐵了心要抱美國大腿對抗中國。
日本要依仗美國打台灣牌,有迹可循。上月在日本舉行的日美外長防長2+2會談聯合聲明中,已經提到「台灣海峽和平穩定之重要」。
這次日美聯合聲明,宣稱要聯合發展5G6G,跟中國比一日長短,這也無可厚非,兩個處於5G競爭劣勢的國家,要聯手追趕中國,鹿死誰手,市場自會分曉。但外交上的準則與慣例,就是兩國合作不會針對第三國,起碼牌面上不會,這次美日聯合聲明點名中國,並且將焦點放在中國最敏感的台灣問題上,明顯不過的就是要叫板。
1972年中日建交,中國可以放棄對日本的戰爭賠償要求,但要求日本必須承認中國對台灣的主權,日本表示充分理解和尊重中國的這一立場。幾十年來,日本跟中國不時有各種各樣的矛盾,但都不敢明目張膽的打台灣牌,這次改弦更張,顯然是因為看到美國對中國實施遏制的決心,日本徹底倒向美國,是押上了「國本」,然則,日本為何賭得這麽大?日本最希望成為「正常國家」,美國於此對日本是否有承諾?2+2聯合聲明,已經寫明日本會「加强軍力」,加强什麽軍力?是否包括美國默許日本「將發展非常規軍力」?都值得關注。
中國跟美國的競爭,是長期和多方面的,什麼時候在哪些方面正面衝突或者忍而不發,既有策略性的考慮,也有戰術上的套路,但有一點必須搞清楚,中國人熟知三十六計,其中圍魏救趙一計後來演變成圍點打援,即是說要攻靶心,可以先打擊靶心外圍的力量。中美之間何時正面交鋒,難以逆料,但打擊美國要拉攏的「小弟」,或許把握與效果都會大一些。
這種戰術近期也不乏例子,澳洲要加盟美國在亞洲地區內對抗中國,馬上受到中國禁買煤炭、紅酒等等的「制裁」。這次日本不但主辦了印太地區的四方會談,顯示了響應美國的印太地區戰略部署,還捅破了中國最敏感的議題,打台灣牌,可以估計,中國對日本的反制措施,一定不會少。中國對美國可能在一時間不會改變「鬥而不破」的戰略方針,但對日本,為何不可以實施圍點打援的戰術呢?