英國大增核彈頭四成 中俄法不會無動於中

<轉載自2021年3月23日 明報 社評>

英國提出後脫歐時代外交國防新政策，放眼印太、提升軍力成為焦點，當中又以最多增加四成核彈頭最惹爭議，國防大臣華萊士辯稱，提升核震懾能力是要抗衡俄羅斯。英國作為《核不擴散條約》締約國，冷戰後一直高舉裁核旗幟，道德高地站得太高，現在轉軚擴大核武庫存，為核子軍備競賽加柴添薪，當然招人話柄。世界格局面對百年不遇巨變，中美交鋒激烈，俄日英歐各有盤算動作頻頻，約翰遜政府欲以「全球化英國」作為國家新定位，確保英國在國際舞台佔一席位，「脫歐入亞」反映這一思路。「新英國」視俄羅斯為最大安全威脅，中國則是「體制競爭者」，倫敦當局既想與華做生意，但又想插足印太、配合美國制華，英國擴充核武，必添北京戒心。

英稱應付俄國威脅 「其他國家」惹人聯想

上周英國政府發表《安全、防衛、發展及外交政策綜合評估》（下稱綜合報告），定調後脫歐時代英國的全球戰略，被視為冷戰後英國外交國防政策最重要檢討。綜合報告其中一項最多人議論的主張，是未來5年將核彈頭數量上限，由180枚增至260枚。消息一出，不僅英國國內反核團體強烈譴責，國際社會亦有很大迴響。德國外長批評，英國當局的決定，有違國際裁核努力，聯合國發言人更警告，英國此舉可損害全球穩定，亦不利國際無核化。

冷戰高峰期，美蘇皆有數以萬計核彈頭，至於英國亦一度有超過500枚，直至1980年代美蘇談判裁核，數十年間，全球裁減核武之路，總算取得一定進展。當然，理想歸理想，現實是沒有任何核武國家願意貿然放棄核震懾力，亦有一些國家躍躍欲試，盼可躋身核武俱樂部。《核不擴散條約》締結數十年，阻不了印巴朝鮮擁有核武；聯合國牽頭的《禁止核武器條約》，明年初正式生效，然而一眾核武俱樂部成員均未有加入條約。這些年來，美俄雖然大減核彈頭數目，惟同時不斷研發更厲害的核武器，特朗普上台後，華府甚至不再公布核武庫存量。

相比之下，英國多年來都是高喊裁核最大聲的西方國家之一，去年當局還在強調，2020年代中，英國核彈頭庫存，將由225枚進一步降至180枚，沒料到約翰遜政策突改，30多年來首度增加核武庫。2016年脫歐公投，約翰遜等人信誓旦旦，揚言脫歐後將有更多資源放在醫療方面，現在疫情重挫經濟，百廢待興，未知錢從何來，當局還要擴充核武庫，並在未來4年大增230億美元國防開支，提升太空及網絡作戰等能力，難怪在野政黨紛紛批評約翰遜政府「不務正業」、未有急民所急。

英國擴充核武庫的原因備受關注，倫敦政府沒有太多回應，又或僅以「法國也有近300枚核彈頭」一類說法轉移視線，及至周日，方有一個較為明確的說法。國防大臣華萊士說，近年俄羅斯既部署新型核武器，又大力加強彈道導彈防禦能力，英國需要維持核震懾力抗衡。由10多年前的利特維年科落毒案，到近年的英國前俄羅斯間諜毒殺案，英俄關係長期繃緊；俄國強調強化核懾力，也是普京治下多年來的國策，俄國可攜核武戰略轟炸機逼近英國領空「示威」一類事件不知凡幾，從地緣政治角度看，俄羅斯確是英國最大安全威脅，然而值得留意的是，華萊士亦提到，英國的核震懾力，需因應及反映「俄羅斯及其他（國家）」現時的能力。這個「其他」意指什麼，難免引來猜測。

兩核潛艇可同時出動 英未說清核戰略意圖

英國的核震懾能力，主要是靠潛射核導彈。英國有4艘先鋒級核潛艇，每艘可攜16支三叉戟核彈，每支可搭載8個核彈頭，國策是任何時候都有一艘先鋒級核潛艇在外巡航，確保一旦英國本土遭受別國核武「第一擊」（ first strike），可用潛射核彈復仇，從而發揮「保證互相毁滅」（即所謂MAD理論）的核震懾作用。從阻嚇「第一擊」的防衛角度，潛艇核導彈的隱蔽性，乃是很大優勢；惟核潛艇明顯亦是進攻型軍備，英國核彈頭增至260枚，意味可以同時派兩艘核潛艇各自滿載128枚核彈頭游弋，不僅更有條件應付兩條戰線，核震懾力投放也可以「攻守兼備」，更加進取。世界格局起變，大國博弈風譎雲詭，英國擴充核武庫，俄法中不會無動於中，其他秘密發展核武的國家也可能有所動作。英國核子戰略意圖不清不楚，有可能引起骨牌效應，加劇核武軍備競賽。

約翰遜政府提出「全球化英國」作為國家新定位，核心就是要確保後脫歐時代英國在全球的影響力。中美激烈博弈，這陣子外交合縱連橫很多，繼之前的美日2＋2會議及中美高層會議，本周則輪到中俄外長對話。綜合報告顯示，英國脫歐後仍想跟中國多做生意，報告稱呼中國「體制競爭者」，至少未如俄國般是「最大國家安全威脅」，然而美英特殊關係，仍是英國外交核心，報告強調「向印太傾斜」，既反映國際舞台重心「西向東移」，同時亦折射英國會跟緊美國腳步。上月英國宣布，將派航空母艦戰鬥群到印太海域巡航，並跟日本聯合軍演，說明這個「向印太傾斜」，絕不僅是政經方面，還有軍事方面。英國向華求財，又要配合美國制華，中英關係改善空間有限。

UK to increase nuclear warheads by 40%

The United Kingdom has released its new foreign and defence policies for the post-Brexit era. The focus on the Indo-Pacific region and the increase in military capabilities are the centre of attention. The most controversial part is its plan to increase the number of nuclear warheads by as much as 40%. Defence Secretary Ben Wallace argues that strengthening the UK's nuclear deterrent is for the sake of counterbalancing Russia. As a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the UK has been a standard bearer of nuclear disarmament ever since the Cold War. Being on a moral ground too high in the past, the UK is of course inviting criticisms for its U-turn now on expanding the nuclear stockpile and fuelling the nuclear weapons race. The world is facing a once-in-a-century great change. Against the backdrop of serious rivalry between China and the US, players like Russia, Japan, Britain and Europe all have their own calculations and subsequent frequent moves. Now Boris Johnson's government wants to set ''Global Britain'' as the new position for its country to ensure that the UK has a role to play in the international stage. The thoughts behind this are reflected by the notion of ''leaving the EU and joining Asia''. The ''New UK'' sees Russia as the most acute threat to its security and China as a ''systemic challenge''. London wants to do business with China but it also wants to step into the Indo-Pacific region to subdue China in collaboration with the US. Its plan to expand the nuclear stockpile will certainly make Beijing warier of it.

Last week, the British government announced an Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (the Integrated Review) to set the tone for the country's global strategy in the post-Brexit era. It is regarded as the most important review of its foreign and defence policies since the end of the Cold War. Of the plans proposed by the Integrated Review, the one that has aroused the most discussions is about increasing the overall cap on the number of nuclear warheads from 180 to 260 in the coming five years. As soon as the news was out, not only was the plan denounced strongly by domestic anti-nuclear groups in the UK, but it also drew strong reaction from the international community. The German foreign minister criticised the UK's decision as running counter to international nuclear disarmament efforts. A UN spokesman even warned that London's move could have a damaging impact on global stability and efforts to pursue a world free of nuclear weapons.

For many years, the UK has been one of those western countries which have made the loudest call for nuclear disarmament. Even last year, the British authorities still emphasised that the number of nuclear warheads in their inventory would decrease further from 225 to 180 by the middle of the 2020s. But this policy was changed unexpectedly by Johnson all of a sudden — the UK will expand its nuclear stockpile for the first time in more than thirty years.

Defence Secretary Wallace said on Sunday that in the last few years Russia has deployed new types of nuclear weapons and invested heavily in ballistic missile defence, thus the UK has to maintain its nuclear deterrent as a counterbalance. However, it is noteworthy that Wallace also mentioned the UK's nuclear deterrent has to adapt to and reflect the current capabilities of ''the Russians and others''. What the word ''others'' refers to has inevitably led to some speculations.

The core of ''Global Britain'' suggested by Johnson's government as the new positioning of the country is about ensuring the UK's global influence in the post-Brexit era. The Integrated Review shows that the UK still wants to do more business with China after leaving the EU. The report names China a ''systemic challenge''. But the US-UK special relationship is still the axis of British foreign policy. The ''Indo-Pacific tilt'' emphasised by the report reflects both a shift of the international stage's gravity ''from the West to the East'' and the fact that Britain will closely follow the lead of the US. The UK wants money from China but it also wants to collaborate with the US in constraining China. The room for improving the Sino-UK relationship will be limited.

英國大增核彈頭四成 中俄法不會無動於中

英國提出後脫歐時代外交國防新政策，放眼印太、提升軍力成為焦點，當中又以最多增加四成核彈頭最惹爭議，國防大臣華禮仕辯稱，提升核震懾能力是要抗衡俄羅斯。英國作為《核不擴散條約》締約國，冷戰後一直高舉裁核旗幟，道德高地站得太高，現在轉軚擴大核武庫存，為核子軍備競賽加柴添薪，當然招人話柄。世界格局面對百年不遇巨變，中美交鋒激烈，俄日英歐各有盤算動作頻頻，約翰遜政府欲以「全球化英國」作為國家新定位，確保英國在國際舞台佔一席位，「脫歐入亞」反映這一思路。「新英國」視俄羅斯為最大安全威脅，中國則是「體制競爭者」，倫敦當局既想與華做生意，但又想插足印太、配合美國制華，英國擴充核武，必添北京戒心。

上周英國政府發表《安全、防衛、發展及外交政策綜合評估》（下稱綜合報告），定調後脫歐時代英國的全球戰略，被視為冷戰後英國外交國防政策最重要檢討。綜合報告其中一項最多人議論的主張，是未來5年將核彈頭數量上限，由180枚增至260枚。消息一出，不僅英國國內反核團體強烈譴責，國際社會亦有很大迴響。德國外長批評，英國當局的決定，有違國際裁核努力，聯合國發言人更警告，英國此舉可損害全球穩定，亦不利國際無核化。

英國多年來都是高喊裁核最大聲的西方國家之一，去年當局還在強調，2020年代中，英國核彈頭庫存，將由225枚進一步降至180枚，沒料到約翰遜政策突改，30多年來首度增加核武庫。

周日國防大臣華禮仕說，近年俄羅斯既部署新型核武器，又大力加強彈道導彈防禦能力，英國需要維持核震懾力抗衡。然而值得留意的是，華禮仕亦提到，英國的核震懾力，需因應及反映「俄羅斯及其他（國家）」現時的能力。這個「其他」意指什麼，難免引來猜測。

約翰遜政府提出「全球化英國」作為國家新定位，核心就是要確保後脫歐時代英國在全球的影響力。綜合報告顯示，英國脫歐後仍想跟中國多做生意，報告稱呼中國「體制競爭者」，然而美英特殊關係，仍是英國外交核心。報告強調「向印太傾斜」，既反映國際舞台重心「西向東移」，同時亦折射英國會跟緊美國腳步。英國向華求財，又要配合美國制華，中英關係改善空間有限。