<轉載自2024年4月25日 明報 社評>
美國國會兩院先後通過涉款近千億美元的一籃子涉外法案包,落實對烏克蘭、以色列及台北當局的援助,以及強制短片分享平台TikTok賣盤,總統拜登表明將簽署法案生效。參眾兩院今次通過的一籃子法案,乃是美國民主共和兩黨拉鋸多月下的產物,外交利益與選舉政治盤算交織,同時也再一次突顯,反華是美國政界最大共識,也是促成兩黨妥協的潤滑劑。俄烏殺戮戰場、加沙烽煙四起、台海局勢緊張,華府聲稱「一籃子法案令世界更安全」,實際是為各地衝突對抗火上加油,但求維護美國霸權。中東和歐洲戰爭停不了,和平曙光不知何時才能來臨。
國家利益選舉政治交織 兩院綑綁通過援外法案
加沙與烏克蘭是當今全球最關注的兩個戰場。加沙戰事本周二滿200天,迄今未見停火迹象。加沙衛生部門表示,累計死亡人數超過3萬,流離失所者數以十萬計,歐盟官員指當地逾六成實體基建受損,三成半遭徹底摧毁。世界銀行及聯合國今年初評估加沙損毁狀况,推算需耗資約900億美元重建加沙,估計現時重建所需金額將更大。
俄烏戰爭方面,持續兩年多的戰鬥,令兩軍折損巨大,估計雙方都有萬計士兵陣亡。烏克蘭無論經濟和軍事體量都遠遠不及俄羅斯,消耗戰曠日持久,對烏方尤其不利。最近基輔當局宣布,撤銷「服役滿3年可離開前線」的規定,外界普遍認為事態反映烏軍兵源愈益短缺,部分士兵和家屬更批評,這等於要他們在前線一直打到戰死為止。加沙與烏克蘭生靈塗炭,盡快落實停火,理應是當務之急,然而美國國會最新通過的一籃子涉外法案,最大效果卻是為戰爭添柴加薪。
今年是美國大選年,這次參眾兩院以相當複雜的「打包」方式,通過一籃子涉外法案,本身就攙入大量選舉政治盤算。拜登政府和民主黨去夏已在籌謀撥款援烏抗俄,但特朗普及其共和黨「MAGA」(「令美國再度偉大」口號縮寫)右翼派系大力反對,認為美國不應「代人埋單」。及至去年10月加沙戰事爆發,美國保守派選民多撐以色列,共和黨看風駛舵,但以軍大肆殺戮,又觸發美國進步派選民不滿,民主黨對「援以」左右為難。另外,兩黨就美墨邊境難民問題鬧得不可開交,也令援以援烏問題變得更複雜。拜登要顧及民主黨進步派議員在移民問題上的人道立場,共和黨則看準這一議題攻擊拜登和民主黨,取悅保守選民。黨派政治令美國援烏援以陷入僵局,將原本看來風馬牛不相及的多項法案綑綁打包,來一場「大交易」各取所需,遂成為了出路。
美國參眾兩院由民主共和兩黨分別主導。今年初,參議院提出涉款近1200億美元的一籃子法案,將援烏援以援台及加強邊境安全共冶一爐,但共和黨拒絕妥協,尤其不滿邊境方案民主黨讓步太少;共和黨眾院半年內兩度通過單獨針對「援以」的法案,同樣得不到參院及拜登支持。最新通過的一籃子法案,可說是兩院「終極妥協」產物。美國猶太金主對國會遲遲未通過「援以」,早已不耐煩,最近伊朗襲擊以色列,相信拜登和特朗普陣營都感受到金主們的壓力,必須讓「援以」法案盡快以打包方式通過。民主黨就援烏方案略作退讓,加入了特朗普肯接受的「貸款」方式,MAGA派縱不高興亦得同意。方案不包含改革邊境安全政策,意味共和黨可繼續操作移民議題批評拜登,雖然逼白宮讓步不成,但也沒有重大損失。
「援烏援以」達成妥協 反華成兩黨最大共識
若說兩黨不同派系對援以援烏各有立場,反華則明顯是兩黨最大公約數,今次法案包加入援台及強制TikTok賣盤,某程度正是為了促成不同派系「大妥協」。值得留意的是,早前眾議院通過的脅迫TikTok法案版本,規定TikTok要在半年內完成賣盤,否則不得在美國營運,但新方案改為9個月,最多可延長至1年。TikTok美國用戶眾多,若因為賣盤不成而在大選前停止美國服務,可能引來選民強烈反彈,對兩黨都有風險,但延至大選後甚或交由下任總統決定,就不用擔心影響11月選情。美方辯稱新方案讓TikTok有「足夠時間」賣盤,但真正最需要「足夠時間」的,其實是兩黨政客。無論如何,今次參眾兩院就強迫賣盤法案達成共識,已成為迄今TikTok在美國所面對的最大危機,北京大有可能出手,寧可TikTok退出美國市場,也不會讓美方撿便宜。
冷戰結束後,美國致力建立以自身利益為中心的霸權秩序,伸張「美利堅治世」( Pax Americana)。30年過去,隨着國際力量消長,世界走向多極化,英國歷史學家佛格森(Niall Ferguson)認為,美利堅治世在歐洲、中東和亞洲都面臨挑戰,並體現於烏克蘭、以色列和台灣命運之上。從這一角度看,今次美國兩院將援烏援以援台法案綑綁通過,貫穿其中的其實就是維護美利堅治世。雖然「援以」方案加入了人道援助巴人的內容,但其本質始終是支持以色列對付伊朗等區內敵對勢力;援台方案是為台獨張目,遏制中國;援烏則是鼓勵烏克蘭繼續打下去,消耗俄羅斯國力,兩敗俱傷無所謂。世界百年不遇變局,不一定要走上戰爭之路,問題是美方似乎認為,只要能夠維護美國霸權,其他地方血流成河又「與我何干」。
US Congress's Passage of
Foreign Aid Bill
THE TWO HOUSES of the US
Congress have successively passed a foreign-related package worth nearly US$100
billion, providing aid to the governments of Ukraine, Israel and Taipei and
mandating the sale of the video-sharing platform TikTok. President Joe Biden
has stated that he will sign the bill to bring it into effect.
Gaza and Ukraine are the
two battlefields that attract the most attention in the world today. The war in
Gaza entered its 200th day on Tuesday, but a ceasefire is still not in sight.
Gaza's health department states that the accumulated death toll has exceeded
30,000 and hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced. European Union
officials state that over 60% of the physical infrastructure in Gaza has been
damaged, and 35% has been fully destroyed. Earlier this year, the World Bank
and the United Nations assessed the damage in Gaza and estimated that it would
cost about US$90 billion to rebuild Gaza. It is estimated that the amount
needed will be even greater for Gaza's reconstruction.
As for the war between
Russia and Ukraine, the fighting has lasted over two years, causing enormous
casualties to both sides. It is estimated that the two sides have lost
thousands of soldiers each. In terms of economic and military might, Ukraine is
no match for Russia. If the war of attrition drags on, Ukraine will be at a
particular disadvantage.
The US is having an
election later this year. Concerning the foreign aid bill, the US Senate and
House of Representatives have chosen to adopt a rather complicated way to
"package" it, which involves a basket of foreign-related bills. This
itself is the product of a lot of electoral and political calculations. The
Biden administration and the Democratic Party had been planning to allocate
funding to support Ukraine against Russia's invasion since last summer.
However, Donald Trump and his right-wing faction of the Republican Party, the
so-called "MAGA" (which stands for the slogan "Make America
Great Again") supporters, were strongly against supporting Ukraine,
believing that the US should not "foot the bill of others".
Then war broke out in
Gaza last October. Conservative voters in the US mostly supported Israel, and
the Republican Party took advantage of the situation. However, the Israeli
army's mass killings led to dissatisfaction among progressive voters in the US,
and the Democratic Party was caught between a rock and a hard place concerning
aiding Israel.
Furthermore, the two
parties are at loggerheads over refugees at the US-Mexico border, which also
complicates the issue of aiding Israel and Ukraine. As Biden needed to pay
proper regard to the humanitarian stance of progressive Democratic lawmakers on
immigration, Republicans homed in on the issue to attack Biden and the
Democratic Party so as to please conservative voters. As partisan politics put
US aid to Ukraine and Israel on hold, the packaging of a number of seemingly
wildly unrelated bills as a compromise for each side became the way out.
After the end of the
Cold War, the US was committed to establishing a hegemonic order revolving
around its own interests. Therefore, it promoted "Pax Americana". 30
years on, with the rise and fall of different powers in the international
arena, the world has become multipolar. Niall Ferguson, a British historian,
argues that Pax Americana is facing challenges in Europe, the Middle East and
Asia, and this will be reflected in the fates of Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Seen from this perspective, the bill passed by the US Senate and House of
Representatives to support Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan has a common theme that
runs through it — the preservation of Pax Americana.
美國維護霸權秩序 援外法案助長戰火
美國國會兩院先後通過涉款近千億美元的一籃子涉外法案包,落實對烏克蘭、以色列及台北當局的援助,以及強制短片分享平台TikTok賣盤,總統拜登表明將簽署法案生效。
加沙與烏克蘭是當今全球最關注的兩個戰場。加沙戰事本周二滿200天,迄今未見停火迹象。加沙衛生部門表示,累計死亡人數超過3萬,流離失所者數以十萬計,歐盟官員指當地逾六成實體基建受損,三成半遭徹底摧毁。世界銀行及聯合國今年初評估加沙損毁狀况,推算需耗資約900億美元重建加沙,估計現時重建所需金額將更大。
俄烏戰爭方面,持續兩年多的戰鬥,令兩軍折損巨大,估計雙方都有萬計士兵陣亡。烏克蘭無論經濟和軍事體量都遠遠不及俄羅斯,消耗戰曠日持久,對烏方尤其不利。
今年是美國大選年,這次參眾兩院以相當複雜的「打包」方式,通過一籃子涉外法案,本身就攙入大量選舉政治盤算。拜登政府和民主黨去夏已在籌謀撥款援烏抗俄,但特朗普及其共和黨「MAGA」(「令美國再度偉大」口號縮寫)右翼派系大力反對,認為美國不應「代人埋單」。
及至去年10月加沙戰事爆發,美國保守派選民多撐以色列,共和黨看風駛舵,但以軍大肆殺戮,又觸發美國進步派選民不滿,民主黨對「援以」左右為難。
另外,兩黨就美墨邊境難民問題鬧得不可開交,也令援以援烏問題變得更複雜。拜登要顧及民主黨進步派議員在移民問題上的人道立場,共和黨則看準這一議題攻擊拜登和民主黨,取悅保守選民。黨派政治令美國援烏援以陷入僵局,將原本看來風馬牛不相及的多項法案綑綁打包,來一場「大交易」各取所需,遂成為了出路。
冷戰結束後,美國致力建立以自身利益為中心的霸權秩序,伸張「美利堅治世」(Pax Americana)。30年過去,隨着國際力量消長,世界走向多極化,英國歷史學家佛格森(Niall Ferguson)認為,美利堅治世在歐洲、中東和亞洲都面臨挑戰,並體現於烏克蘭、以色列和台灣命運之上。從這一角度看,今次美國兩院將援烏援以援台法案綑綁通過,貫穿其中的其實就是維護美利堅治世。